1、 Price trend
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of toluene fell continuously after the festival. On April 1, the price was 7580 yuan / ton; On Friday (April 8), the price was 7390 yuan / ton, down 2.57% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 35.32%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the impact of domestic public health events, the logistics and transportation of toluene are blocked and the regional circulation is not smooth. The gasoline industry is in shock and downward, and the demand follow-up is insufficient; The downstream demand support of chemical industry is limited, and the enterprise mentality turns to shipping. Superimposed on the decline of crude oil during the week, the fundamentals of toluene were weak, and the price continued to decline after the festival.
In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell after rising this week. On Thursday (April 7), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $1029 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $5 / ton, or 0.48%.
In terms of crude oil, it was reported within the week that the International Energy Agency planned to release 120 million barrels of crude oil reserves, the tightening of supply was expected to ease slightly, and the oil price fell as a whole. As of April 8, Brent fell $1.61 / barrel, or 1.54%; WTI fell $41.01/barrel, or 1.02%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell narrowly this week. The price was 19450 yuan / ton on April 1 and 19250 yuan / ton on April 8, down 1.03% from last week and up 18.46% from the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price was stable this week. On Friday (April 8), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 45.31% compared with the same period last year.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell this week. The price was 8775 yuan / ton on April 1 and 8628 yuan / ton on April 8, down 1.67% from last week and 24.39% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is full of uncertainty, and the EU may introduce a new round of sanctions against Russia, and the oil price support remains. However, the release of reserve plans by the United States and the International Energy Agency may curb the rise in oil prices. The short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The crude oil price remains high in the short term, the cost support remains unabated, and the market reluctance to sell remains. However, under the influence of public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, and the demand follow-up is limited, which is the main factor for profiting toluene. Overall, toluene may still fall in the short term. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.
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