On the 29th, the aluminum price was stable

 

According to the data of business agency, on March 29, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 22996.67 yuan / ton, with a daily increase of 0.26% and a year-on-year increase of 32.09%, an increase of 1.94% compared with the average market price of 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (3.1); Compared with the average market price of 20370 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 12.89%.

 

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Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 5.13% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 23.02% recently.

 

Brief description of Fundamentals

 

1. Inventory data:

 

The mainstream social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was relatively stable, and the domestic mainstream social inventory was 1067000 tons as of March 28;

 

2. Overview of downstream aluminum alloy import and export:

 

Downstream aluminum alloy in the first two months of 2022, China imported 208400 tons of unwrought aluminum alloy. China imported 116500 tons of unwrought alloy aluminum in January, a month on month decrease of 9.41% and a year-on-year increase of 39.35%. China imported 91900 tons of unwrought alloy aluminum in February, a month on month decrease of 21.12% and a year-on-year increase of 60.38%.

 

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3. Overview of supply and demand:

 

On the whole, the overseas aluminum ingot production reduction is still expected, and the downstream operating rate has been affected by the recent public health events in China.

 

Future forecast

 

It is expected that the aluminum price will continue to be suppressed by the 23000 mark. Under the long and short game, the upward space will narrow and the stable and volatile operation will prevail.

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