Price trend:

According to the business block list data, this week domestic ABS market volatility slightly increased, the spot price of each brand rises and then downgrades. As of March 18, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14750 yuan / ton, up or down + 4.61% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the spot market of styrene accelerated its decline this week. International crude oil futures fell sharply, the market focus of raw material pure benzene was lowered, and the cost support of styrene was poor. At present, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the downstream is dominated by digestion contracts, and the spot transaction is weakened. The styrene market is expected to fall mainly in the short term.

The recovery of acrylonitrile market was disrupted this week, and the current cost side support of acrylonitrile is weakened. Although there are maintenance plans for some enterprises in the industry, the period of rapid production of the industry has not ended, and the operating rate of the industry in the early stage is high, there is no benefit on the supply side, and it is heard that the inventory of enterprises has increased. The situation of midstream merchants going to the warehouse has also weakened, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term.

The trend of domestic butadiene market fluctuated this week. Under the high support of the external market, the prices of domestic mainstream suppliers have increased continuously, which has boosted the mentality of some merchants. However, the sharp decline of crude oil during the week weakened the cost support. In addition, as the price of butadiene rose to a high level, the cost and profit of downstream industries were under pressure, the operating rate of some industries decreased, the drag demand for butadiene also weakened, and the rise slowed down. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be dominated by high-level consolidation in the short term.

This week, the market of ABS upstream three materials fell more or rose less, and the cost side support is general. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. There is pressure on the inventory position of domestic ABS enterprises and PetroChina merchants. At present, the main downstream is the home appliance industry. At the same time, the demand is phased and large, and the operating rate and consumption of corresponding enterprises have also increased, which has a certain support for ABS. However, the domestic rebound in health events caused resistance at the logistics level, and the trading was restricted to some extent, which affected the increase of ABS spot. In addition, the previous tension in Eastern Europe eased this week, bulk commodities in the petrochemical chain fell with crude oil, and market negative factors dragged down ABS.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: the spot market of ABS fluctuated and rose slightly this week, and the trend of three upstream materials rose and fell, which generally supported the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply continues to be abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is at a high level. In terms of demand, household electrical appliance enterprises have a large volume in stages, but the on-site trading is restricted by logistics, coupled with the slow digestion of social inventory. It is expected that the increase of ABS spot market may be blocked in the short term.