1、 Price data

As of March 20, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 9325.00 yuan / ton, down 4.19% from 9733.25 yuan / ton on March 14. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 9200-9500 yuan / ton.

As of March 20, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 9285.00 yuan / ton, down 4.96% from 9770.00 yuan / ton on March 14. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 9100-9300 yuan / ton.

On March 20, the naphtha commodity index was 115.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.38% from the highest point of 121.64 in the cycle (2022-03-10), and up 172.47% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha continued to fall this week. At present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in naphtha terminals is weak, affected by public health events in many places in China, the transportation is limited, the shipment of refineries is blocked, and refineries cut prices for shipment.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rebounded after falling. The data released by the National Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose for the first time in three weeks, and the market was worried that high oil prices would suppress demand. At the beginning of this round of price adjustment cycle, the national crude oil administration has a plan to release crude oil reserves. In addition, American energy enterprises increased the number of active oil and gas drilling rigs this week, which is the ninth week in 10 weeks. Due to Russia’s military action against Ukraine, the crude oil price reached the highest level since 2008. There was some good news in the later Russian Ukrainian negotiations, and the international oil price decreased significantly. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and its allies agreed to gradually increase production by 400000 barrels per day per month. Despite the soaring oil price, the organization refused to accelerate the pace of production increase. The sharp rise and fall of international oil prices during this cycle was mainly due to the geopolitical situation. From tension to moderation, oil prices experienced sharp rise and fall.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, after the wide decline of toluene this week, the price rebounded on Friday. The price was 8430 yuan / ton on March 11 and 8000 yuan / ton on March 18, down 5.1% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fell broadly this week and rebounded on Friday. The price was 8750 yuan / ton on March 11 and 8190 yuan / ton on March 18, down 6.4% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene fell this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from 9500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analyst of business agency, the high international crude oil price supports the naphtha market. At present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the naphtha terminal is weak, affected by public health events in many places in China, transportation is limited, refinery shipments are blocked, refinery shipments are reduced, and it is expected that the recent refining of naphtha may be dominated by consolidation.