1、 Price trend
The price of toluene rebounded on Friday after a wide decline this week, according to the bulk list data of business society. On March 11, the price was 8430 yuan / ton; On Friday (March 18), the price was 8000 yuan / ton, down 5.1% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 38.47%.
2、 Analysis and comment
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In the first half of the week, the international crude oil fell continuously and broadly, and the cost support weakened; Superimposed on the impact of national public health events, transportation in some areas was blocked, toluene market transactions were limited, the mentality of operators was empty, and the price fell with crude oil. Crude oil rebounded broadly on Thursday, with a one-day increase of more than 8%. The market was rising and confidence was rekindled. The offer followed the rise of Sinopec prices.
In terms of external trading, toluene in Asia fell in a wide range this week. On Thursday (March 17), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $979 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of US $65 / ton, or 6.23%.
In terms of crude oil, crude oil rebounded broadly in a single day after falling continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, although the tension between Russia and Ukraine remained, the supply concerns eased. In addition, the market was worried that the excessively rising oil price would affect the demand and economy, and the oil price continued to decline. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, and the International Energy Agency predicts that Russian oil production may decrease by 3 million barrels / day from April. Concerns about reduced supply have boosted the broad rebound of international oil prices in a single day. As of March 18, Brent fell $4.74 / barrel, or 4.21%; WTI fell $4.63/barrel, or 4.23%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell narrowly this week. The price was 19500 yuan / ton on March 11 and 19225 yuan / ton on March 18, down 1.41% from last week and up 2.99% from the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On Friday (March 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9300 yuan / ton, down 2.11% from last week and up 38.81% from the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rebounded slightly after falling this week. The price was 9976 yuan / ton on March 11 and 9616.2 yuan / ton on March 18, down 3.61% from last week and 36.54% from the same period last year.
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3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, there is still uncertainty about the future trend of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of oil price rise still exists, and the short-term oil price fluctuates violently. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the relationship between supply and demand of crude oil, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
Supported by the high price of crude oil, the market sentiment of supporting the price and reluctant to sell remains unchanged; However, domestic public health incidents will still affect toluene shipments. On the whole, the trend of toluene may be different, but it still follows the fluctuation of crude oil as a whole. Pay attention to the market trend of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil, as well as the impact of toluene plant dynamics, downstream plant dynamics and demand on toluene price.
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