Summary of spot price trend of precious metals
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According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver market in early trading on March 17 was 5076 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 1.36% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% compared with the same period last year; Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the month (March 1), the early average price was 4928.33 yuan / kg, up 3%; Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 6.42%.
On March 17, the spot market price of gold was 394.68 yuan / g, with a daily increase of 0.89%, up 1.91% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 5.99%.
Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the rise and fall ranges are slightly different.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
The Fed raised interest rates on the ground, and the price of precious metals rose instead of falling
At 2 a.m. Beijing time on March 17, the open market committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate to 0.25% – 0.5%, which is the first time the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates since December 2018; The median value of the Fed’s dot matrix shows that the Fed is expected to raise interest rates seven times in 2022, with the interest rate at 1.9% by the end of 2022 and 2.8% by the end of 2023.
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US inflation remains high. The market had full psychological expectations for the fed to raise interest rates. In order to bring inflation back to 2%, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 points, which did not exceed market expectations.
Future forecast
Although the risk aversion caused by geopolitical factors such as the situation in Ukraine began to subside, the Central Bank of Russia said that from the 15th, it had suspended the purchase of gold from credit institutions, but the uncertainty was still strong. Before the situation was unclear, the good support for the risk aversion of precious metals still existed.
In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices.
Recent macro data of concern include:
Japan’s core CPI rate: February 30, 2007; 11: The yield target of 10-year Treasury bonds from Japan to March 18 and the interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Japan to March 18; 18: 00 euro zone quarter adjusted trade account in January; 18: 30. The interest rate decision of the Central Bank of Russia from March 18; 20: 30 Canadian retail sales rate in January; 22:00 annualisation of the total number of existing home sales in the United States in February, and the monthly rate of leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce in February; Saturday: the total number of oil wells drilled in the week from 01:00 to March 18 in the United States.
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