1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fell narrowly in the first half of the week and rebounded broadly in the second half of the week. On February 25, the price of pure benzene was 7850-8450 yuan / ton (the average price was 7940 yuan / ton). On Friday (March 4), the price of pure benzene was 8400-8550 yuan / ton (the average price was 8460 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 520 yuan / ton, or 6.55%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.84%.
| PVA 1788 (PVA BP17) |
2、 Analysis and comment
Due to the loss of profits of downstream main products, some units have reduced the load and stopped, and the demand for pure benzene is insufficient; Shandong local refining enterprises generally take goods; Superimposed on the weak price of styrene, pure benzene weakened slightly at the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, crude oil soared and the external market rose, driving the domestic pure benzene market to rise.
This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene twice, a total of 600 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton.
In the external market, affected by the sharp rise of crude oil, the Asian pure benzene in the external market rose sharply this week. On Thursday (March 3), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1237 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $139 / ton, or 12.66%; The reference import price in East China was US $1250 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of US $128 / ton, or 11.41%.
In terms of crude oil, geopolitical tensions dominated, and crude oil soared this week. As of March 4, Brent rose $20.18 / barrel, or 20.61%; WTI rose $24.09/barrel, or 26.3%.
Downstream: styrene: the cost side gives strong support to styrene. This week, styrene fell first and then rose broadly. The price was 9000 yuan / ton on February 25 and 9480 yuan / ton on March 4, up 5.33% from last week and 0.85% from the same period last year.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
Aniline: the demand is insufficient, and the weakness stabilized after the decline of aniline this week. In terms of units, Jinling and Jinmao units stopped this week, Tianji operated at half load, and the supply in the North decreased more. On February 25, the price in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 13800 yuan / ton; On March 4, the price in Shandong was 12500-12700 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton, down 5% from last week and up 11.11% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the geopolitical situation continues to affect international oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical impact, global epidemic, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
Downstream: the downstream main product styrene: the market supply is still abundant, the downstream is expected to maintain rigid demand, and the supply and demand side continues to be deadlocked. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil. On the whole, if the raw material level is strong or continues to rise next week, the styrene market will continue to consolidate and rise.
At present, the rise of pure benzene is mainly driven by the cost side, and the demand side is insufficient. If crude oil continues to rise, pure benzene may rise; If crude oil falls, pure benzene may fall rapidly. Pay attention to the downstream market, device dynamics, domestic pure benzene device dynamics, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.
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