1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after rising this month. On February 1, the price in Shandong was 12400-12660 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12800 yuan / ton; On February 25, the price in Shandong was 13000-13200 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 13800 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.82% this month and 23.84% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material, pure benzene: during the Spring Festival, the strong rise of crude oil led to the positive follow-up of relevant energy and chemical products. The shipment of Shandong local refinery was good and the price rose positively. After the festival, Sinopec also raised the price of pure benzene to 8100 yuan / ton, and the market negotiation was positive. However, with the weakening of crude oil support and the limited follow-up of downstream end products, the whole pure benzene industry chain weakened, the holders took profits and the price fell continuously. In late June, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, crude oil rose significantly in the short term, the cost side drove pure benzene to rise, and the price rebounded rapidly. On February 1, the price was 7660 yuan / ton; On February 25, the price was 7940 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.66% this month and 23.1% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid is basically stable this month. The price of nitric acid in East China was 2200 yuan / ton on February 1 and 2200 yuan / ton on February 25, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 10% over the same period last year. Years later, the pace of enterprise production was slow, and the goods in the market were poor.

Before the Spring Festival, it was reported that Shandong Jinling aniline plant was planned to be overhauled in February, and the downstream inventory was expected to be strong. After the festival, Jinling maintenance plan was implemented. In addition, due to the Winter Olympics in Shanxi Tianji, a set of devices were shut down, and the supply of aniline in the North was significantly reduced. Enterprises actively raised prices. Superimposed on the raw material, the price of pure benzene rose, and the support for aniline was also good, and the industry was mainly bullish in the future.

After the festival, the process of returning some downstream to the market was slow, and the improvement of the demand side was insufficient; The resistance of the downstream to high priced aniline increased, and aniline stabilized after rising. With the decline of cost support, aniline entered the horizontal consolidation stage.

3、 Future forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: at present, pure benzene is obviously affected by the fluctuation of crude oil trend. In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises have insufficient profit space and lack of power to catch up, and some factories shut down to reduce the burden. The demand is limited, and the upward pressure of pure benzene increases, which may fall; If crude oil continues to rise, or support pure benzene to rise. Nitric acid: the upward support of liquid ammonia at the raw material end may drive the price rise of nitric acid.

At present, Shandong Jinling aniline plant is still shut down for maintenance, Shanxi Tianji plant has been restarted in the middle and late days, and the supply reduction in Shandong is obvious. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the cost and demand. If there is any improvement, it may drive aniline to continue to rise. At the same time, pay attention to the restart plan of Jinling device.