1、 Price trend
| PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05) |
According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fluctuated lower this week. On February 11, the price was 6860 yuan / ton; On Friday (February 18), the price was 6900 yuan / ton, up 0.58% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 42.27%.
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil continued to rise in the early stage, rising in a wide range, followed by the rise of the gasoline industry, which led to the strong rise of the toluene Market. However, the actual demand of downstream is limited, and the rise of toluene is blocked. In the second half of the week, crude oil fluctuated widely, the guidance on energy related commodities weakened, the market focus shifted to the demand side, and toluene fell weakly.
In the external market, toluene in Asia rose first and then fell in the external market this week. On Thursday (February 17), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was $878 / ton, up $7 / ton or 0.8% from February 10.
In terms of crude oil, in the early stage, due to the escalation of tensions in Russia and Ukraine, the market was worried that the crude oil supply might be affected, and the international oil price rose continuously and broadly. However, there is still uncertainty about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, new progress has been made in Iran’s nuclear negotiations, crude oil demand is still improving, uncertainty about the trend of crude oil is increasing, long and short are intertwined, and oil prices fluctuate widely. As of February 18, Brent fell 0.9 USD / barrel, or 0.95%; WTI fell $2.03/barrel, or 2.18%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China first rose and then fell this week, with a slight overall decline. The price was 19575 yuan / ton on February 11 and 19550 yuan / ton on February 18, down 0.13% from last week and up 50.38% from the same period last year.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
In the PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this week. On Friday (February 18), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week and increased by 40.35% from the same period last year. As of February 17, the closing prices in Asia were US $1035-1037 / T FOB Korea and US $1053-1055 / T CFR China.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 9035.2 yuan / ton on February 11 and 9176.8 yuan / ton on February 18, up 1.57% from last week and 50% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, positive: tight crude oil supply is still the main theme, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain; Bearish: Iran’s nuclear negotiations have made new progress. The uncertainty of crude oil trend has increased. Continue to pay attention to the relationship between crude oil supply and demand, geopolitical impact, global epidemic, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The lack of downstream demand still greatly restricts the rise of toluene. Combined with the increased uncertainty of crude oil trend in the near future, the decline of toluene may increase. Pay attention to the dynamics of toluene units, the dynamics and demand of downstream units, and the impact of crude oil and external market trends on toluene prices.
| http://www.polyvinylalcohols.com |