Summary of spot price trend of precious metals
According to the data of business agency, on February 14, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4882.67 yuan / kg, down 2.53% daily, an increase of 1.87% compared with the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the festival (January 31).
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On February 14, the spot market price of gold was 374.21 yuan / g, an increase of 1.63%, an increase of 1.94% over the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).
Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same. Silver prices rose sharply today.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
Inflation data stimulate risk aversion
Overnight, U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds fell sharply after the U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations again. Swap dealers bet that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points five times before the end of July, and the real yield of inflation adjusted 10-year U.S. bonds jumped to -0.421% on Friday, the highest level since June 2020.
Domestic monetary policy news
The central bank today conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10 billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.1%, unchanged from the previous time. Another 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo and 200 billion yuan of 14 day reverse repo expired.
Future forecast
Inflation data stimulated investors’ hedging sentiment. As a defensive asset against high inflation, the price of precious metal silver rose. At present, the real negative interest rate is still good for precious metals. We will wait and see the news of interest rate increase in the future. We will focus on the following data news this week.
Tuesday: 15:00 UK December three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK January unemployment rate, UK January unemployment benefit applicants; 18: 00 German February ZEW Economic Prosperity Index, revised value of GDP annual rate in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, February ZEW Economic Prosperity Index in the euro zone, quarterly employment rate after quarterly adjustment in the fourth quarter of the euro zone, and quarterly adjusted trade account of the euro zone in December; 21:30 US January PPI monthly rate, US February New York Fed Manufacturing index;
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Wednesday: API crude oil inventory for the week from 05:30 to February 11 in the United States; 09:30 China’s January CPI annual rate; 15: 00 UK January CPI monthly rate, UK January retail price index monthly rate; 18: Monthly industrial output rate of euro zone in December; 21:30 Canadian January CPI monthly rate, Canadian December wholesale sales monthly rate, US January retail sales monthly rate, US January import price index monthly rate; 22:15 monthly industrial output rate of the United States in January; 23:00 US February NAHB real estate market index and US December commercial inventory monthly rate; 23:30 EIA crude oil inventory of the week from the United States to February 11 and EIA strategic oil reserve inventory of the week from the United States to February 11;
Thursday: 08:00 Australian January quarter adjusted unemployment rate; 15: 00 Swiss January trade account; 21:30 the number of initial jobless claims in the week from February 12, the annualized total number of new housing starts in January, the total number of construction permits in January, and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index in February; 23:30 EIA natural gas inventory of the week from the United States to February 11;
Friday: 07:30 annual rate of Japan’s core CPI in January; 14: 30. ILO unemployment rate in France in the fourth quarter; 15: The monthly rate of retail sales in the UK after the quarter adjustment in January; 15: 45. Monthly CPI rate of France in January; 17: 00 euro zone current account after quarterly adjustment in December; 21:30 Canadian retail sales rate in December; 23:00 annualized total sales of existing homes in the United States in January and the monthly rate of leading indicators of the American Chamber of Commerce in January; Saturday: 02:00 the total number of oil wells drilled in the week from the United States to February 18.
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