Summary of spot price trend of precious metals
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According to the data of business agency, on February 10, the average price of silver market in early trading was 4776 yuan / kg, up 0.31% on a daily basis, down 0.35% from the average price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the holiday (January 31).
On February 10, the spot market price of gold was 376.63 yuan / g, an increase of 0.63%, an increase of 0.79% compared with the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the festival (January 31).
Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year
After the festival, the convergence of precious metal gold and silver weakened, the price of gold increased significantly, and the price trend of silver was weak.
Price trend of precious metals and crude oil
News of interest rate hike policy
The Central Bank of Romania raised its benchmark interest rate to 2.5% and the market expected it to be 2.25%.
The Bank of Iceland raised its key interest rate to 2.75% from 2%.
The Bank of Thailand kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with market expectations.
The Central Bank of India kept the key interest rate unchanged at 4.00%, in line with market expectations.
UBS: the Central Bank of Brazil is expected to eventually raise the benchmark interest rate to 12.5%.
The Bank of Indonesia said it had room to cut interest rates. The Bank of Indonesia kept the 7-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.50%.
Domestic monetary policy news
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The central bank today launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 20 billion yuan, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%, which was the same as before. As 200 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net return of 180 billion yuan was realized.
According to the data of the central bank, at the end of January, the balance of broad money (M2) was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The growth rate was 0.8 and 0.4 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, estimated at 9.2%, and the previous value was 9%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing factor ① of the Spring Festival, M1 increased by about 2% year-on-year. The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 10.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The net cash invested in the month was 1.54 trillion yuan.
China’s social financing scale increased by 6170 billion yuan in January, with an estimated 5385 billion yuan, compared with 2368.2 billion yuan. At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale in China was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%.
In January, China increased RMB loans by 3980 billion yuan, a monthly statistical high, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; It is expected to be 3700 billion yuan, compared with 1131.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 100.6 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan.
Future forecast
The expectation of raising interest rates in the near future still exists, suppressing interest free assets and putting pressure on the price of precious metal silver. However, geopolitical news triggered a certain rise in risk aversion. It is expected that the price of precious metals will still be in the stage of upward weakness and weak consolidation in the short term.
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