According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of January 26, 2022, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 9400 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8300 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1100 yuan / ton, or 13.25%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in early January, the inventory of n-butanol factories in Shandong was low, the spot supply was tight, the downstream demand performed well, and the trading atmosphere was positive. With the two-way support of supply and demand, the domestic n-butanol market rose sharply after the new year’s day. In just three days, the cumulative increase of n-butanol market price exceeded 1000 yuan. As of June 6, The average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to 9866 yuan / ton, up 18.88% in three days. Subsequently, the n-butanol market was consolidated at a high level, the on-site wait-and-see mood was increasing, the downstream was resistant to the high price, and the demand for n-butanol became weaker. From the 10th, the n-butanol market fell at a high level, and the transaction focus continued to decline. On the 13th, the ex factory n-butanol in Shandong fell to around 9000-9200 yuan / ton. As of the 15th, n-butanol rose by 8.84% in the first ten days of January.

In late January, approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream began to prepare goods before the festival, and the demand side improved. The delivery of n-butanol performed well and the supply pressure was small. From January 17, the domestic n-butanol market ushered in a rising operation, and the transactions on the floor gathered to the high end. As of January 20, the average outgoing price of n-butanol exceeded 10000 yuan, with a reference of 10033 yuan / ton. Subsequently, the downstream goods preparation was basically completed, the on-site transaction of n-butanol turned weak, and some factories still had the pressure to ship. From the 21st, n-butanol factories sold out again, and the quotation decreased slightly continuously. As of the 26th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9200-9500 yuan / ton, the average price was 9400 yuan / ton, and the overall increase of n-butanol in late January was 2.92%.

In terms of upstream propylene, on the 26th, the propylene (Shandong) market fell, and the price adjustment range was reduced compared with that at the beginning of the week. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7750-7850 yuan / ton. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, the downstream shutdown or production reduction holiday, the propylene market plunged, the price was at the high level of 8000 yuan / ton, fell rapidly, and the demand support was weak. At the same time, the downstream goods preparation is basically completed, and the supply and demand situation will not change much in the near future. Forecast: propylene is expected to continue to decline in the near future, with a little room for weak consolidation.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream goods preparation has ended one after another. The n-butanol datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong has limited fluctuations, and the market is mainly adjusted in multiple ranges. More attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.