1、 Price data
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Figure 1: mainstream price trend of fuel oil from January to December 2021
The monitoring shows that, as shown in the figure above, from January to December 2021, China’s fuel oil 180CST price experienced two rapid and substantial increases and then fell back. During the remaining period, it showed a shock trend as a whole, and the fuel oil 180CST market in 2021 showed a shock upward trend as a whole. According to the data of business agency, on January 1, China’s domestic fuel oil 180CST mainstream reported about 3990 yuan / ton, and as of December 31, the market mainstream reported about 5240 yuan / ton, with an annual increase of about 31.33%; Among them, the highest price in 2021 was about 6140 yuan / ton on October 26, and the lowest price was 3990 yuan / ton on January 1, with an annual maximum amplitude of 53.88%.
Figure 2: Trend of fuel oil commodity index from January to December 2021
On December 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 106.13, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.65% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 130.32% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream crude oil market from January to December 2021
As shown in the figure above, on the macro level, the crude oil is advancing all the way in 2021, with a shock rise. According to monitoring, WTI crude oil surged from $48 at the beginning of the year to $80 in late October, and fell in shock in the two months at the end of the year. As of December 28, WTI had increased by 56.14% and Brent by 51.50%. The core logic of the rise in oil prices in 2021 is basically highly related to the evolution trend of the epidemic. In addition, supply tightening and economic recovery under the macro background of inflation expectations also provide impetus for the rise of oil prices.
Figure 4: Monthly K-line chart of mainstream fuel oil prices from January to December 2021
As shown in the above figure, the monitoring shows that from January 2021 to December 2021, the mainstream market of fuel oil 180CST in China rose in 7 months, namely January, February, may, June, September, October and December 2021; There are five downward months, namely March, April, July, August and November 2021. As can be seen from the monthly histogram above, October 2021 saw the largest increase of 22.54%, and the month with the largest decline was the first month after the sharp rise, that is, November, with a decrease of 16.09%.
In 2021, China’s fuel oil 180CST price experienced two rapid and substantial increases and then fell back, and the overall trend was volatile in the remaining period:
Figure 5: mainstream price trend of fuel oil from February to March 2021
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The first rise was from early February to mid March, and the fuel oil 180CST increased by about 18%. According to the monitoring of business agency, from February to mid March, WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by more than 26%. Good news continued to spread in the international crude oil market, and inventories in the United States and China fell. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the production control effect of oil producing countries is ideal. It is necessary to increase supply and reduce the market price of crude oil. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limits the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and accidental factors help rise the price of crude oil. The main factor for the sharp rise in the price of fuel oil 180CST is the sharp rise in the price of bulk commodities caused by the rise in the price of crude oil, the tight supply of marine oil raw materials, the sharp rise in the price, and the cost support of fuel oil 180CST. Secondly, the rise of freight after the Spring Festival is also one of the key factors for the rise of fuel oil 180CST.
Figure 6: mainstream price trend of fuel oil from September to October 2021
The second surge was from early September to the end of October, and the fuel oil 180CST increased by more than 33%. The international crude oil price rose in September. On the one hand, after Hurricane IDA passed through, it brought the greatest destructive force to the oil and gas production in the United States in 13 years, which made the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico slow, while the recovery rate of American refineries was faster than that of crude oil. Therefore, the fear of tight supply heated up and boosted the market. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term. In October, international crude oil prices continued to rise, the economies of major economies in the world continued to recover, and fuel demand rebounded, but U.S. inventories continued to decline, and oil and gas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico recovered slowly. In addition to the supply restriction policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +), the supply-demand gap is expected to give strong support to oil prices, and the impact of natural gas shortage in Europe, oil prices will still rise due to demand in the medium and short term. The global energy crisis has led to the rise of crude oil, the high price of domestic raw materials, cost pressure, and the price of domestic ship fuel market continues to rise. Secondly, affected by environmental protection inspection, energy conservation and emission reduction and other factors, the supply of domestic marine oil raw materials was tight, and the price continued to rise. Supported by the cost of domestic marine fuel market, the price rose sharply to the annual high of 6140 yuan / ton.
3、 Future forecast
Figure 7: comparison chart of mainstream market trend of fuel oil from 2019 to 2021
In 2021, the trend of international crude oil prices affected the main factors of the price of the ship’s fuel market. In 2022, it will continue to affect the rise and fall of the shipping market: the potential strength of the US dollar, the spread of Omicron COVID-19 mutation, the recent rise in the crude oil market, the high price of the marine raw materials, and the high cost and high price supporting the ship burning market. Due to the impact of epidemic and other factors, the demand for terminal shipping in 2021 is general, the transaction is light, and just need procurement is the main trend. In 2022, the ship fuel market may continue to focus on just need.
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