1、 Price trend
| PVA 0599 (PVA BF05) |
According to the bulk list data of business society, the toluene market is under pressure this month, and the price fluctuates and falls broadly. The price of toluene was 6080 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5570 yuan / ton on December 30; The lowest price in this month is 5570 yuan / ton, and the highest price in this month is 6080 yuan / ton, down 8.39% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, the price difference between the highest price and the lowest price in the month was 510 yuan / ton.
2、 Analysis and review
A large number of ships were sold in Northeast China, the port inventory continued to rise, and the supply of toluene increased, depressing the market price. In addition, the shutdown and maintenance of downstream devices further bearish the market, and toluene fell under pressure. With the continuous rise of crude oil and the strengthening of cost support, the downstream gasoline market rose slightly, and the toluene market rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the downstream demand is mainly regional, the boost is limited, and the market negotiation at the end of the month is light, mainly with narrow fluctuations.
In the external market, toluene in Asia fell in a narrow range in the external market this month. On December 30, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $693 / T, down US $13 / T or 1.84% from November 30.
In terms of crude oil, the international oil price rebounded after falling to a low at the beginning of the month. The market constantly weighed the impact of Omicron mutant strain on economy and demand, and the international oil price fluctuated and rose. As of December 30, Brent rose $8.75 / barrel, or 12.4%; WTI rose $10.81/barrel, or 16.33%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China rose broadly this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 14350 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 16000 yuan / ton, an increase of 11.5% over the beginning of the month and 26.32% over the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to be stable this month, with the price at 6700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6700 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price was flat compared with the beginning of the month and increased by 42.55% compared with the same period last year. On December 30, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was USD 874-876 / T FOB Korea and USD 892-894 / T CFR China.
| POLYVINYL ALCOHOL |
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell sharply this month and rebounded slightly in the latter half of the month. The price was 7959.4 yuan / ton on December 1 and 7637 yuan / ton on December 31, down 4.05% from the beginning of the month and up 33.82% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of raw materials, the prospect of crude oil demand is good, and the short-term high level of crude oil fluctuates under the positive influence of high European natural gas prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.
Toluene demand is mainly regional, and the overall market continues to be weak; Toluene port inventory is high, and the contradiction between short-term supply and demand is prominent. Overall, toluene maintains a weak trend in the short term. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market trend at the raw material end, plant dynamics of enterprises at the supply end, port inventory and downstream purchase at the demand end on the price of toluene.
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