1、 Price data
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According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7345.75 yuan / ton, down 5.45% from 7765.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the ground refined hydrogenated naphtha rebounded after falling.
According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 7160.00 yuan / ton, down 1.21% from 7247.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month. The price of refined straight run naphtha fluctuated and rebounded at the end of this month.
On December 31, the naphtha commodity index was 90.66, up 0.15 points from yesterday, down 12.27% from the highest point 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 114.63% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
Product: the price of refined naphtha rebounded after falling this month and fell as a whole. At present, the mainstream price of refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 7200-7400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7000-7300 yuan / ton. In the first ten days of the month, the downstream reformer was not significantly favorable, the transaction was light, the downstream procurement was cautious, a small amount of olefins at the end of the month just needed to be released, and the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, which was actively pushed up by the manufacturers. As of the week of December 29, Singapore’s fuel oil storage fell by 1371000 barrels to a two-and-a-half month low of 19564000 barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell 517000 barrels to a five week low of 11.505 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 26000 barrels to a three week low of 7.896 million barrels.
Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuated sharply in December, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market. In a report on Monday, JPMorgan said that Omicron would not have any significant impact on the growth prospects. US stocks were boosted and rose, which was also good for oil prices. In addition, a preliminary survey released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the fifth consecutive week last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to remain generally stable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullah Hyan said through the media on the 27th that the parties concerned with the comprehensive agreement on Iran’s nuclear issue began the eighth round of us Iran resumption of performance negotiations in the Austrian capital Vienna on the same day, and will focus on a “new common draft”, which focuses on the “unrestricted” sale of Iranian petroleum oil, and the sale funds will be deposited into Iran’s bank account in foreign currency. However, at present, it is still difficult to promote the negotiations.
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Downstream: the toluene market was under pressure in December, and the price fluctuated widely. The toluene price was 6080 yuan / ton on December 1 and 5570 yuan / ton on December 30, down 8.39% from the beginning of the month. Mixed xylene fell slightly in December, and the price of mixed xylene was 5890 yuan / ton on December 1; On December 30, the price was 5860 yuan / ton, down 0.51% from the beginning of the month. In December, the price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.
3、 Future forecast
According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil rose sharply in December, supported by the cost of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just needed to be released at the end of the month, the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, and the refineries actively pushed up. It is expected that the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha in January may be mainly sorted out.
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