Since the Spring Festival in 2021, driven by the collective rising bull market of chemical bulk products, the domestic calcium carbide market has shown a volatile rise in the first three quarters and a rapid decline in the fourth quarter. After several rounds of ups and downs in the first half of the year, the price of calcium carbide finally broke through the high point of 8000 in late October, reaching a new high in recent ten years. However, the highlight time is not long. In late October, the price of calcium carbide fell sharply, and the increase was basically spit back. According to the data monitored by the business club, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China was 3890.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 4666.67 yuan / ton at the end of the year, an increase of 19.97% during the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of January, and the highest price of the whole year was 8100.00 yuan / ton in late October, with a maximum amplitude of 162.70% in the year.

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From the annual comparison chart of calcium carbide prices, the highest price of calcium carbide in 2021 was 8100.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 189.29% over the same period last year. On December 26, 2021, the calcium carbide commodity index was 124.45, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.36% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 124.27% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

Market Review

In the first quarter, the calcium carbide market experienced twists and turns, showing a “down up down” trend as a whole. January continued the downward trend of December 2020, with insufficient downstream demand and weak trading atmosphere, with a decrease of 20.74% for the whole month. In February, after the Spring Festival, the price of calcium carbide began to rise sharply. The sharp rise in calcium carbide prices can be divided into two stages. The main reason for the rise of calcium carbide price in February is that the closure of large foreign PVC factories, the surge of PVC exports, the rise of demand and the sharp rise of PVC price drive the rise of calcium carbide price. The price of calcium carbide increased from 3050.00 yuan / ton on February 18 to 3566.67 yuan / ton on March 1, an increase of 16.94%. After March, the price of calcium carbide rose mainly because of the strict policy of “double control of energy consumption” in Inner Mongolia, the power supply of calcium carbide plant was limited and shut down, the supply of calcium carbide fell sharply, the supply of calcium carbide was in short supply, and the price of calcium carbide rose sharply. The price of calcium carbide increased from 3566.67 yuan / ton on March 1 to 5116.67 yuan / ton on March 21, an increase of 43.46%. Later, due to the weakening demand, the price of calcium carbide began to fall sharply in late March.

In the second quarter, the overall calcium carbide market showed a “W” shape trend. In early April, the downward trend in late March continued, and the demand weakened. The price of calcium carbide decreased from 4200 yuan / ton to 4000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.76%. Since late April, the price of blue carbon began to rise sharply, from 700 yuan / ton to 1400 yuan / ton, an increase of 100%. Driven by the cost, the price of calcium carbide began to rise sharply. As of mid May, the price of calcium carbide increased from 4000 yuan / ton to 4733.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 18.33%. From late May to early June, the price of blue carbon fell, PVC began maintenance, cost support weakened, and downstream demand decreased. The price of calcium carbide fell from 4733.33 yuan / ton to 4116.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.03%. In early June, the price of calcium carbide began to rise slightly. The price of blue carbon rose to about 1500 yuan / ton, and the maintenance of PVC plant was completed. Under the dual advantages, the price of calcium carbide rose from 4083.33 yuan / ton to 4683.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 14.69%.

In the third quarter, the calcium carbide market was very good, rising for three waves, and the calcium carbide price soared all the way to 7600 yuan / ton at the end of September. The first rise occurred in mid and late July. The price of calcium carbide increased from 4700 yuan / ton to 5100 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.51%. At this time, the downstream PVC futures broke through the 9000 mark, and the favorable downstream led to the rise of calcium carbide. The second rise occurred in mid and late August. At this time, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the output of calcium carbide decreased sharply, and it was difficult to find a car from time to time. The price of calcium carbide increased from 5133.33 yuan / ton to 5483.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.82%. The third rise occurred in late September. The price of calcium carbide rose from 5450 yuan / ton to 7600 yuan / ton, a sharp rise of 39.45%. At this time, the price of blue carbon in the upstream rose sharply from 1700 yuan / ton to 2300 yuan / ton, with strong upstream support. Downstream PVC futures trading, spot broke 10000, demand is good. At the same time, under the influence of the dual control policy of energy consumption, the output of calcium carbide is insufficient, the supply exceeds the demand, and the calcium carbide rises sharply.

In the fourth quarter, the overall calcium carbide market showed a “Z” shape trend. In October, the favorable trend of September continued, and the price of calcium carbide finally broke 8000, which was the highest price of calcium carbide in recent ten years or in history, resulting in a historical moment. The price of orchid charcoal soared all the way, up to about 3400 yuan / ton. The spot price of PVC broke through to the historical highest of 14525 yuan / ton. Energy consumption is double controlled, and the output of calcium carbide has always been low. Under multiple factors, the price of calcium carbide climbed to this high point. There will be big ups and downs. From late October to early November, the price of calcium carbide fell sharply. The price of calcium carbide decreased from 8033.33 yuan / ton to 4433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 44.81%. In just 10 days, the price of calcium carbide fell to the level in mid March. At this time, the state issued the coal policy, the price of blue carbon fell to about 1600 yuan / ton, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the policy, the futures price of downstream PVC futures continued to fall, and the spot market quickly fell. From mid November to the end of November, the price of calcium carbide hit the bottom and rebounded, rising from 4433.33 yuan / ton to 5233.33 yuan / ton. At this time, the price of blue carbon rose slightly and the cost support increased. In December, the price of calcium carbide began to fall all the way again. The price decreased from 5233.33 yuan / ton to 4666.67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 10.83%. At this time, the downstream PVC construction fell, the demand for calcium carbide decreased, and the market trading was light.

The upstream support is general, the downstream procurement is weakened, and calcium carbide is bearish in the future

In the middle and early ten days of January, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and mainly fell. The prices of raw materials coke and blue carbon were adjusted at a low level, and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. The downstream PVC market fell slightly and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of January.