According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 23, there were 7 commodities rising in the list of fluorine chemical prices in 2021, and the monitored products rose across the board, including R134a (77.14%), aluminum fluoride (56.73%) and hydrofluoric acid (33.47%); The average annual increase and decrease of this year was 32.84%. Let’s take a look at the rise and fall of each product in 2021:

As can be seen from the above chart, the refrigerant industry rose sharply in 2021, with R134a rising by 77.14% and R22 rising by 27.91%; The sharp rise in the downstream refrigerant market has formed a certain positive support for the upstream products. The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid products have increased in varying degrees. Let’s focus on the trend of related products in this product chain:

It can be seen from the figure that the prices of fluorite, hydrofluoric acid and downstream refrigerant products have increased. First, take a look at the price trend of fluorite products in 2021:

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose in 2021. The average price at the beginning of the year was 2718.89 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic fluorite at the end of the year was 28.6111 million tons, an increase of 5.23% for the whole year. It can be clearly seen from the fluorite price trend chart that the highest price of fluorite in 2020 appears in the middle of December, the highest price is 2877.78 yuan / ton, the lowest price of fluorite appears on July 30, and the lowest price is 2611.11 yuan / ton. The price of fluorite fluctuates little throughout the year, and the overall trend rises.

The price trend of the whole year is roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid March, and the price of domestic fluorite market rises slightly; In the second stage, from late March to the end of July, the domestic fluorite price fell sharply; The third stage is from August to the end of the year, and the price trend of fluorite continues to rise. In the first stage, the domestic fluorite market price rose slightly. The price at the beginning of the year was 2718.89 yuan / ton, and the price in mid March was 2766.67 yuan / ton. The price trend increased by 1.76%. In the second stage, the domestic fluorite price decreased from 2766.67 yuan / ton to 2611.11 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.62%. In the third stage, the price of fluorite rose sharply. At the beginning of this stage, the domestic refrigerant industry rose sharply. Supported by the favorable downstream market, the price of fluorite rose. Then, with the cold weather, the supply of fluorite in the field declined, resulting in the high price of fluorite. At the end of the year, the price of fluorite was 2861.11 yuan / ton, and the increase in the third stage was 9.57%.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market price of hydrofluoric acid increased in 2021. The price of hydrofluoric acid at the beginning of the year was 9530 yuan / ton, the price at the end of the year was 12720 yuan / ton, and the annual increase was 33.47%. According to the price trend chart, the lowest price of the whole year appeared on January 1, and the average market price was 9530 yuan / ton. The highest price of the whole year appeared on November 22, and the average market price was 14030 yuan / ton, The maximum amplitude of hydrofluoric acid Market in 2021 is 47.22%.

The market trend of hydrofluoric acid can be roughly divided into four stages. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to mid April. The market price of hydrofluoric acid rises. The price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rises from 9530 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 10622.22 yuan / ton in mid April, an increase of 11.46%. The second stage is from late April to the end of June, when the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and decreased, from 10622.22 yuan / ton in late April to 10000 yuan / ton on June 30, a decrease of 5.86%. The third stage is from early July to the end of November. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rises rapidly, from 10000 yuan / ton in early July to 14030 yuan / ton at the end of November, an increase of 40.30%. During this period, the hydrofluoric acid market price trend soars. The fourth stage is from the beginning of December to the end of the year. The market price of hydrofluoric acid rose and callback, and the overall decline in December was 6.68%. Recently, the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid has remained high. The ex factory price of domestic fluorite is about 2860 yuan / ton. The start-up of domestic fluorite units has declined. The mines and flotation units in the site have stopped, and the fluorite supply in the site is tight. The high price of fluorite is a good support for the market price of hydrofluoric acid. At this stage, the correction range of hydrofluoric acid is small.

Refrigerants will rise and fall sharply in 2021, with an overall upward trend. According to the data monitored by the business society, the mainstream average price of R22 at the beginning of the year was 14333 yuan / ton, and the mainstream average price at the end of the year was 18333 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 27.91%. The lowest price in the whole year was 14000 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price was 2666.67 yuan / ton in October. The average mainstream price of R134a at the beginning of the year was 17500 yuan / ton, and the average mainstream price at the end of the year was 31000 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 77.14%. The lowest price in the whole year was 17500 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price was 50666.67 yuan / ton in the second half of October and the first half of November. In the first half of the year, it showed a steady upward trend, while in the second half of the year, under the influence of the dual control policy of raw materials and energy consumption, the price rose rapidly, R22 and R134a reached a new high in recent three years, and then the price fell sharply due to factors such as lack of cost support and weak demand. It was a roller coaster market with sharp price fluctuations. On the whole, the refrigerant industry rose in 2021.

In the future, domestic environmental protection will not be reduced, some domestic fluorite manufacturers will still be unable to operate normally, and the supply of domestic fluorite market will be limited to a certain extent. However, with the increase of fluorite import, the price of imported fluorite is low, which will continue to impact the price of domestic fluorite market. Therefore, in the whole year of 2022, the maximum price of fluorite market will not exceed 3100 yuan / ton, Affected by the strengthening of domestic environmental protection, the minimum price of fluorite will also remain above 2500 yuan / ton in 2022. For hydrofluoric acid, the price may remain low at the beginning of 2022. With the advent of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, manufacturers in the domestic refrigerant industry will prepare goods and gradually start up the repaired refrigerant units. At that time, the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise, the price may rise, and the price will rise to 14000 yuan / ton. In the third quarter, the upward pressure of hydrofluoric acid market increased, or the price will gradually decline. It is expected that the annual price will be 12500-14000 yuan / ton. The short-term sharp rise in 2021 is not easy to copy or bring into 2022. It is about to enter January, and R22 rebounds slightly. Although it is good in the short term, the new quota is opened, and it is expected that the price may not continue to rise. The transaction at R134 high price is not smooth, the enterprise inventory pressure is obvious, and the price is expected to continue to decline. More attention should be paid to the trend of raw materials and the guidance of market news.