Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2456.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2548.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.75%, a year-on-year increase of 38.73%. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and there is an upward trend at the weekend. On December 17, the urea commodity index was 118.51, up 1.86 points from yesterday, down 18.03% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 113.15% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, and urea supply was insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 2700 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2530 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 120 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2510 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 110 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Yangmei plain urea quoted 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 90 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 4373.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 5.95%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.66% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 1082.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1056.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 2.42%, up 39.67% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 4410.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4460.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.13%, a year-on-year increase of 37.94% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream support of urea is good, which has a positive impact on the price of urea. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell sharply this week, and the quotation fell from 12726.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 10700.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 15.92%.

From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late December, the domestic urea market rose slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream natural gas and coal prices rise slightly, the cost support is good, the promotion of fertilizer winter storage is accelerated, urea enterprises enter the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, and the future urea market price may fluctuate slightly.