1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 15 was 16666.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 1166 yuan compared with 10500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 11.11% during the cycle and 134.11% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In December, the phosphoric acid market continued to rise, with an increase of about 11% in the past half a month, and the focus shifted upward. Recently, the price of phosphoric acid has risen mainly due to the rise of raw material yellow phosphorus and the reluctance to sell. Supported by the cost side, the market of phosphoric acid has risen. Enterprises have increased their quotation according to their own inventory situation, with the maximum increase of 2000 yuan. Some enterprises still focus on clearing inventory, and the price is maintained in the early stage, or closed, and the market price is relatively chaotic. Towards the end of the year, the purchasing mood in the downstream is still not high. It continues to focus on just demand, and the transaction of high-priced phosphoric acid is not smooth. Both buyers and sellers hold a wait-and-see mentality, and the demand side support is general. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus is high at about 45000. The cost of phosphoric acid enterprises is under pressure and the commencement is affected to a certain extent. However, most enterprises have inventory, so the supply gap is small. According to the monitoring of the business community, the quotation in Sichuan is 10500-12000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 12500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Shanghai is 11000-13000 yuan / ton. The price of phosphoric acid in various places is rising steadily.

According to the weekly rise and fall from September 20, 2021 to December 12, 2021, it can be seen that the rise and fall show each other in the phosphoric acid cycle. In September, the main actor opened the downward channel since October, and continued to rebound and rise in November, but the fluctuation was significantly narrower than that in the previous period.

On December 14, the reference price of phosphate rock was 686.67, an increase of 0.98% compared with December 1 (680.00). Towards the end of the year, the downstream began to prepare goods, and the supply and demand support did not change much in the short term. Therefore, phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of China’s domestic phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level and stably, More attention should be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

On December 14, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 43250.00, an increase of 13.32% compared with December 1 (38166.67). This month, the environmental protection supervision team stationed in Guizhou, the electricity price in Yunnan will be increased next month, and the cost will increase. At present, the spot is tight and the order is good. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus may continue to rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the raw materials have been raised at present, and there are still upward expectations. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to rise following the cost side, but the demand follow-up is insufficient, so some increases are restrained.