In November 2021, the domestic 1# tin ingot market price fluctuated widely, but the overall trend remained upward. The average price in the domestic market was 287262.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 296887.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.35%.

On November 29, the tin commodity index was 150.79, down 0.25 points from yesterday, down 0.84% from 152.06 points (2021-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 251.82% from 42.86 points, the lowest point on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In November, after many shocks in the tin market, the overall market is still an upward trend. In the first ten days of the year, the US dollar index of fundamentals rose, and the base metals were generally under pressure. On November 1, the latest data of LME tin inventory was 680 tons, of which basheng port decreased by 285 tons. This data was the lowest in recent 30 years. Low inventory boosted the market, and tin prices rebounded with the support of low inventory. After the middle of the year, it entered a wide-ranging shock trend, which was mainly affected by factors such as fundamental environmental protection, limited production and tight supply at the mine end. The futures market fluctuated, driving the sharp shock of the spot market. In the latter half of the year, the market cooled slightly, mainly with narrow range shocks. There were many tin markets in the month, and LME inventory fluctuated significantly, driving the ups and downs of the futures market. It can be seen that tight inventory and supply are still the main factors affecting the fluctuations of tin market.

Supply and demand: Jiangxi, the main production area, has gradually shrunk under the influence of environmental protection factors, enterprises have gradually resumed production, and commodities will enter circulation in the near future. Production is limited in some areas of Yunnan, which lasts for a short time and has limited impact on the market. Overall, it is expected that the domestic output will increase slightly in the near future. Import: Myanmar’s import is still blocked, Mengbo port is still closed, the subsequent tin import is expected to decline, and the tight supply at the mine end will continue. Overall, the current tin market is mixed with bad and good, and the supply is still low. In terms of downstream demand, it is difficult to have bright spots in the short term. It still maintains on-demand procurement, and the demand is weak. In the environment of weak supply and demand in Tin City, it is expected that Tin City will still maintain a volatile trend.

Relevant data:

According to the latest data report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on the 21st, there was a supply shortage of 1400 tons in the global Tin City from January to September 2021. China’s demand is calculated on an apparent basis using the reported inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange. From January to September 2021, the global reported refined tin output increased by 23000 tons compared with the same period last year. China reported that production fell to 11500 tons in July, but rebounded to 15400 tons in August and was estimated to be 15000 tons in September. Japan’s apparent demand was 22000 tons, an increase of 43% over the same period in 2020. China’s apparent demand decreased by 1% compared with the same period last year. From January to September 2021, the global demand for tin was 292600 tons, an increase of 3% over the same period last year. The apparent demand of the United States increased by 3.8% year-on-year to 23700 tons. In September, refined tin production was 29400 tons and consumption was 28600 tons.

On November 29, 2021, the tin inventory of London Metal Exchange (LME) was 1240 tons, increased by 10 tons, reaching a new high in recent two months (unit: tons)