Throughout November, the domestic butadiene market fell unilaterally and deeply. Both the external market and the domestic market atmosphere are relatively depressed. Coupled with the restart of some enterprises’ devices, the market supply increases. However, the downstream demand is mainly rigid demand, which is not significantly good in the short term. The trading atmosphere is depressed. Most people in the industry are bearish on the future market, and the butadiene market is not optimistic.
| PVA 1799 (PVA BF17) |
According to the sample data monitored by the business society, the domestic butadiene market price was 7991 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6820 yuan / ton at the end of the month (as of November 26), with a decrease of 14.66% and 31.38% year-on-year.
At the beginning of June, the domestic butadiene market continued its downward trend. The market supply is abundant, and the external market falls back with the domestic spot price. At the same time, the supplier’s equipment in Shandong is restarted, and the export of goods source affects the overall increment of supply. In addition, the synthetic rubber market continued to decline during the week, and it was difficult for the fundamentals of butadiene supply and demand to be boosted by good news. Short term market expectations were short, dragging the downstream wait-and-see mentality, and the spot trading atmosphere was relatively low during the week.
In the middle of the month, the domestic butadiene market was slightly sorted out. After the “sharp rise and fall” of the early market, downstream users mostly delisted and waited. Affected by the weather, the outflow of goods from Northeast China is limited, and the transaction of goods from Shandong suppliers is improved. The external market performance was strong, which supported the merchants in East China not to lower. At the same time, under the influence of the phased need to follow up in the north, the butadiene spot market stopped falling and pushed up slightly in the middle of this week. However, the short-term market supply is still abundant, the market is difficult to find a sustainable driving force, and the cautious mentality of downstream inquiry still exists.
In late June, the domestic butadiene market fell in a narrow range. With the increase of supply, the spot price of butadiene quickly fell to a low point. During the week, the new production capacity in Shandong and Fujian released output, and the spot sales source increased significantly, but the downstream demand was not followed up, and the short-term supply-demand imbalance dragged down the market price. Although the downstream synthetic rubber market is higher and the operating rate of some industries has increased, the inventory of most downstream raw materials is relatively high. On the premise of significant supply increase, it is difficult to find support on the demand side.
At the end of the month, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline in a narrow range, and the open auction price of North Huajin was still low. Affected by the restart of some units, the current market supply side is abundant, and the external market expectation is weak. In addition, the downstream raw material inventory is relatively abundant, and the market transaction atmosphere weakens after a short recovery.
In terms of enterprises, Liaotong chemical’s 120000 T / a butadiene plant operates stably, 182 tons of goods are exported through competitive bidding, and the base price of the bidding is 5510 yuan / ton. Shandong Luqing butadiene plant was restarted and some goods were sold abroad. The 140000 T / a butadiene unit of Dalian Hengli Petrochemical operates stably, the source of goods is normal for export, and the price is stable at 5610 yuan / T. The 64000 T / a butadiene extraction unit of shenhuaning coal operates normally. At present, a small amount of goods are exported, and the price is stable, with the implementation of 5450 yuan / ton.
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As of November 26, factory quotations of some domestic butadiene manufacturers:
enterprise ., Price (yuan / ton). Device dynamics
Liaoyang Petrochemical / Stable operation of 30000 T / a butadiene plant
Dalian Hengli 5610 yuan / ton The 140000 T / a butadiene unit operates stably, and the source of goods is normal for export
Liaotong chemical For export, the price is 5710 yuan / ton Stable operation of 120000t / a butadiene plant
Fushun Petrochemical There is no export plan for goods source Normal operation of 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit
Inner Mongolia Jiutai No quotation for the time being The 70000t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit operates stably and a small amount of goods are exported
Silbang, Jiangsu Suspend external quotation The 100000 t / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit has been temporarily shut down since September 14
Zhenhai Refinery 6700 yuan / ton Normal operation of 165000 T / a unit
Shanghai Petrochemical 6700 yuan / ton Normal operation of 120000 T / a unit
Yangzi Petrochemical 6700 yuan / ton Normal operation of 120000 T / a unit
Sinopec 6700 yuan / ton The 200000 t / a unit operates normally, mainly for mutual supply
Maoming Petrochemical 6650 yuan / ton 150000t / a unit operates normally, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export
Guangzhou Petrochemical 6700 yuan / ton The 30000 T / a unit operates normally, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export
Wuhan ethylene 6900 yuan / ton The 190000 T / a extraction unit operates stably, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export
In terms of external market: as of November 25, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $760-770 / ton; CFR China closed at US $795-805 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at USD 945-955 / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 1045-1055 euros / ton.
region ., Country, closing price, up and down
Asia FOB Korea USD 760-770 / ton USD 0 / ton
Asia CFR China USD 795-805 / ton USD 0 / ton
Europe FOB Rotterdam 945-955 USD / ton USD 0 / ton
Europe FD northwest Europe 1045-1055 euros / ton 0 euro / ton
According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in October 2021, there were 72 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 51 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 51% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were ammonium sulfate (62.96%), chloroform (48.06%) and bromine (43.01%). A total of 24 commodities decreased month on month, and 13 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were phosphoric acid (- 27.33%), organosilicon DMC (- 26.28%) and acetic acid (- 24.50%). The average rise and fall this month was 8.3%.
The short-term domestic spot supply is still relatively abundant, while the external supply is actively on sale, and the overall performance of the market supply side is under pressure. Recently, the domestic price is lower than the external market, which leads to the obstruction of the transaction of external supply. Therefore, the external market is expected to fall to some extent, and will continue to put pressure on the domestic market. Butadiene analysts of business society predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline in the short term
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