1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene first rose slightly and then fell this week. On November 7, the price of pure benzene was 7550-7600 yuan / ton (average price 7590 yuan / ton). On Sunday (November 14), the price of pure benzene was 7450-7650 yuan / ton (average price 7560 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 30 yuan / ton or 0.4% compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 89.95%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, pure benzene followed the decline. Planned overhaul of Fujian United Petrochemical Unit within the week, and expected reduction of pure benzene supply; New production capacity is planned to be put into operation in the downstream, with good support from the supply and demand side and small decline in the week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Friday (November 12) was US $961 / T, down US $13 / T or 1.33% month on month (MOM) on November 5.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase, the U.S. dollar jumped, and OPEC + lowered its oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter, suppressing oil prices. However, the end of international travel restrictions in the United States and the adoption of the trillion dollar infrastructure bill gave a positive boost to the market. The demand for crude oil may grow, and the market is worried about supply or shortage. On November 5, Brent fell 0.57 USD / barrel, or 0.69%; WTI fell US $0.48/barrel, or 0.59%.

Downstream: styrene: the market price of styrene continued to decline slightly this week. The price of sample enterprises was 9420 yuan / ton on November 5 and 9025 yuan / ton on November 12, down 4.19% from last week and up 6.59% from the same period last year. The fundamentals of styrene are expected to weaken, new units are put into operation, supply increases, and downstream demand recovers slightly, but the overall capital is bearish on the market, and styrene is weak.

Aniline: both raw materials fell, and the cost support of aniline weakened; Downstream resistance to high priced aniline increased, follow-up weakened, and the high price of aniline corrected. During the week, the market cautiously watched the downstream pick-up sentiment and stabilized after falling. On November 12, the price in Shandong was 13500-13780 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14000-14500 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, tight crude oil supply still exists, short-term long short game, and the trend of crude oil fluctuates. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: at present, there is no significant change in the supply and demand of styrene, and the price trend is guided by crude oil. Pure benzene or finishing operation, ethylene is expected to be stable, and there is support at the cost end. The supply of styrene is tight recently, there is no obvious increase on the demand side, and the port inventory may be reduced slightly. It is expected that styrene will maintain shock operation next week.

Crude oil is expected to fluctuate on the cost side, and the guidance for pure benzene is weak; The trend of downstream styrene is weak, but there are plans to put new production capacity into operation, and the demand for pure benzene is expected to increase in the later stage. The supply and demand side pays attention to the dynamics of large units in East China and the dynamics of new units in the downstream. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will continue to fluctuate weakly next week. Pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external market on the price of pure benzene.