Spot aluminum prices continued to fall on the 27th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on October 27 was 20610 yuan / ton, down 14.98% from the average market price of 24240 yuan / ton on October 19.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, the cumulative increase is 31.05%.

The turning point of aluminum price on the 19th and the coal factor should not be underestimated

The recent sharp decline in coal prices has strongly impacted the market sentiment of nonferrous metals, especially the market situation of large power users and aluminum ingots. The settlement of speculative positions in the futures market has driven the linkage of spot prices, and aluminum prices have been falling continuously recently.

Recently, the social inventory of aluminum ingots rose against the cycle, and the price of aluminum ingots fell continuously. In the early stage, the aluminum price was indeed high, the downstream undertaking was weak, and the fear of high was strong, so the aluminum price had a certain driving force and space for decline.

Aluminum prices fell by 14.98% continuously, floating profit decreased sharply, and cost factors began to highlight.

The price of raw alumina soared, and the cost per ton of aluminum rose

According to the data of business agency, the regional prices of alumina spot contract of Chinalco on October 27, 2021 are as follows:

The external quotation of Shandong is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Henan is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi is 4150 yuan / ton, that of Guizhou is 3950 yuan / ton, and that of Guangxi is 3900 yuan / ton.

Compared with the alumina price three months ago, the regional prices of alumina spot contract on July 13, 2021 are as follows:

Shandong offers 2450 yuan / ton, Henan 2450 yuan / ton, Shanxi 2450 yuan / ton, Guizhou 2400 yuan / ton and Guangxi 2400 yuan / ton.

In the past three months, alumina prices in various regions increased by 69.4%, 69.4%, 69.4%, 64.58% and 62.5% respectively. Although the downstream aluminum price has plunged sharply, the alumina price is still high for the following reasons:

On October 15, Zhengzhou City issued the notice on starting the class III rotation and rest plan of Zhengzhou City for peak winter in 2021. Some enterprises require to take “three starts and four stops” for rotation and rest, and Chinalco mining (a subsidiary of Chinalco Henan) as one of the 64 “double high” enterprise users issued by the provincial development and Reform Commission will stop all production. It is reported that the annual alumina production capacity of Henan Province is 12.85 million tons, and the alumina production will be 8.67 million tons in 2020, accounting for 13% of the national alumina production. Superimposed overseas alumina is also expected to reduce production, and the price is high. According to the customs import data, China imported 394100 tons of alumina in August, a month on month decrease of 25.19% and a year-on-year increase of 49.85%. From January to August, China imported 2332300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.95%.

In the early stage, the prices of alumina and prebaked anode rose synchronously. The cost per ton of aluminum in some electrolytic aluminum plants using thermal power is close to 19500 yuan / ton, while the cost of aluminum in southwest hydropower is slightly lower, roughly estimated at 17500-19000 yuan / ton.