1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell after rising this week. On October 17, the price of pure benzene was 8350-8550 yuan / ton (average price 8440 yuan / ton). On Sunday (October 24), the price of pure benzene was 8340 yuan / ton (average price 8150-8550 yuan / ton). The average price decreased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.18%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 134.27%.

2、 Analysis and review

The rise of crude oil slowed down, the atmosphere of bulk commodity market weakened during the week, and the price of styrene fell, so the negotiation of pure benzene market became lighter. Demand in Shandong weakened and prices fluctuated narrowly after falling during the week. The impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, and the mentality of pure benzene market is empty. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, the high price of external market fell this week. On Friday (October 22), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $992 / ton. Compared with October 15, the price fell by US $20 / ton, or 1.98%.

In terms of crude oil, the number of active oil rigs in the United States this week decreased by 2 month on month and increased by 232 year-on-year. Global coal and natural gas prices continue to rise, and the tight supply of crude oil is expected to be difficult to change in the short term. However, some market participants worry that if the prices of coal and natural gas fall, it will drag down the oil price and slow down the rise of oil price. On October 15, Brent rose 0.67 USD / barrel, or 0.79%; WTI rose $1.48/barrel, or 1.8%.

Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene weakened this week. On October 22, the price of sample enterprises was 9750 yuan / ton, down 1.71% from last week and up 44.8% from the same period last year. Crude oil rose strongly, ethylene was stronger, but the price of raw material pure benzene fell, and the cost expenditure temporarily weakened. The downstream maintains rigid demand, but with the increase of restrictions, spot demand weakens.

Aniline: the restart of Jiangsu Fuqiang aniline plant was delayed, the overall on-site operating rate was low, and the spot supply was tight; Downstream demand was good, and aniline prices continued to rise during the week. On October 22, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14000-14500 yuan / ton

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, with the advent of winter in the northern hemisphere, the demand for fuel oil is improving, the global energy supply is tight, the pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the oil price is expected to remain high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Downstream: styrene, the main downstream product, decreases in spot demand as restrictions increase. It is expected that there is still room for decline in the short-term styrene market.

Positive: crude oil will remain strong in the short term, with good cost support. Bad: the downstream operating rate decreased and the demand for pure benzene was limited; Coupled with the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, it is expected that pure benzene will hardly recover in the short term. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will fluctuate weakly next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.