1、 Price data

As of October 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7714.00 yuan / ton, up 3.59% from 7446.60 yuan / ton on October 11. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7700-8000 yuan / ton.

As of October 17, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7555.00 yuan / ton, up 4.68% from 7217.50 yuan / ton on October 11. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7400-7700 yuan / ton.

On October 17, the naphtha commodity index was 95.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 7.22% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 125.40% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha continued to rise this week. There was no inventory pressure in refineries, the terminal just needed to be the main, the market operation was cautious, and most of them were on the sidelines.

Upstream: the international crude oil price has risen since October. Affected by the rise of European natural gas and the production restriction of oil producing countries, crude oil also shows a shortage of supply. The international oil price has exceeded the $80 mark during the “National Day” and continued to rise after the festival. On October 4, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies reached an agreement at the ministerial video conference to maintain the original production policy. The expectation of supply tightening heated up the market panic and the high oil price. What is more noteworthy is that there is an extreme shortage of natural gas in Europe and the United States, and power plants may gradually turn to oil power generation, which will further lead to the shortage of crude oil. Oil prices have been strongly supported in the short term.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene rose continuously this week, and the price rose broadly. The price of toluene was 6020.2 yuan / ton on October 8 and 6620.2 yuan / ton on October 15, up 9.97%. The price of mixed xylene increased continuously this week, with a wide range. The price of mixed xylene was 6170 yuan / ton on October 8 and 6830 yuan / ton on October 15, an increase of 10.7% over last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the 14th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 2.82% from 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 41st week of 2021 (10.11-10.15), there are 13 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (17.75%), power coal (13.81%) and fuel oil (7.09%). There are two commodities with month on month decline, and the products with the first two declines are petroleum coke (- 1.36%) and coking coal (- 0.44%). The average rise and fall this week was 4.24%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil continues to rise, supported by the cost of naphtha market; The refinery has no inventory pressure, the terminal just needs to be the main, the market operation is cautious, and most of them wait-and-see. It is expected that the naphtha refining in the near future may be stable and upward.