Commodity index: on August 15, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 93.69, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.05% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 11.11% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2019-04-01 to now)

The monitoring found that in the first half of August 2021, China’s water treatment manufacturers experienced the biggest twists and turns in recent years. In late July, Gongyi, Henan, the main production area, experienced a severe rainstorm. So far, the rainstorm has raided the local area, the road transportation is blocked, it is difficult for the manufacturers to ship a vehicle, the freight has increased by 50 yuan to hundreds of yuan, and the cost has increased; The rainstorm also led to the flooding of warehouses of some industrial and mining enterprises, the shortage of raw materials for production and the shortage of market supply, resulting in the rise of the price of aquatic products; In addition, the current delta virus has led to strict epidemic prevention and control, which has a certain impact on the operation of the water treatment industry. In the first half of August, the mainstream market of polyaluminum chloride in China showed an upward trend. The domestic mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 1687.78 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price on the 15th was 1733.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.7%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: from the manufacturer’s quotation, the manufacturer’s quotation in Shandong hydrochloric acid market increased at the beginning of the month, and the market changed little thereafter. The quotation of Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 400 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily; The quotation of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak, while the high market price of downstream ammonium chloride has a positive impact on hydrochloric acid. Difficult delivery of hydrochloric acid is still a big problem. Then in Henan Province, according to the manufacturer, due to strict environmental protection, some manufacturers stopped for maintenance, coupled with the damage to the manufacturer’s warehouse caused by flood, coupled with the rise of transportation costs, the market price of hydrochloric acid increased and the supply of goods was tight.

Secondly, liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. Recently, the domestic LNG market has shown an up down up trend. On August 9, after the rise over the weekend, the domestic LNG market continued to rise. Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and other places generally increased, and some areas fell slightly, but there is no doubt that the market focus has shifted upward. This round of liquid prices stopped rising, benefiting from the cost support, the tight price of imported gas goods was boosted, and after the liquid price fell last week, the heat of downstream inquiry increased. At the same time, some liquid plants recently planned to shut down for maintenance, tighten the supply, lay more profits, and the domestic liquid price market continued to run strong in the off-season. At present, 5150-5550 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 5400-5550 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 5330-5630 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 5360-5520 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5350-5600 yuan / ton in Henan and 5200-5400 yuan / ton in Hebei. The inlet gas price is about 4600-5950 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price and export gas price increase hand in hand, and the price difference is small. According to the analysis of the business society, the current cost support is strong. In addition, after the early price adjustment, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant has improved. At the same time, some regions may have the demand for urban combustion in advance, and the support on the demand side is gradually improved. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will run strong in the short term, and the price will continue to rise.

Downstream demand: in July and August, the water treatment industry experienced too much. The weather and epidemic disasters affected the production, raw material supply and shipment to a certain extent. The raw materials were tight and the logistics and transportation were limited, and the downstream demand became tense. According to the manufacturers in the main producing areas, the market of various water treatment products is rising at present: according to manager Wang Dongdong of Henan Kaijie, the production capacity of polymeric ferric sulfate and phosphorus removal agent in Gongyi City has also decreased since the beginning of the year. Due to the dual impact of flood and epidemic situation, the price of polymeric ferric sulfate and phosphorus removal agent has soared since August 4, There is even a price but no goods. According to the business agency, the chemical raw material sulfuric acid required for the production of polyferric sulfate and phosphorus removal agent increased from 686.67 yuan per ton on July 22 to 770 yuan on August 10, up 83.33 yuan or 12.13%. Therefore, based on the experience and experience of the company, the price of polyferric sulfate and phosphorus removal agent increased from 900 yuan to 1026 yuan, an increase of 14%. Secondly, the price of citric acid has fluctuated since the beginning of July because of short supply. In addition to the disaster and epidemic situation, the price has increased from the initial 6600 yuan to the current 8500 yuan, an increase of 1900 yuan, or 28.8%. To a certain extent, it has caused a passive situation for our business. Some old customers can’t accept such a high price and have said that they can’t buy or sell, so it’s difficult to clinch a deal. Thirdly, sodium acetate / sodium acetate and glucose also showed an upward trend in varying degrees, both of which reached 2.5%. In the short term, the price will remain stable, but with the impact of the epidemic, there will be different degrees of supply tension.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, in the future, the current water treatment industry has ushered in a good period of annual market, the impact of the communication role of the industrial chain, coupled with tight supply, a certain improvement in downstream demand, and the price of polyaluminium chloride is strong. In the future, under the influence of the traditional peak sales season, the market is more likely to continue to rise.