1、 Price data

As of July 25, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6968.00 yuan / ton, down 0.06% from 6972.00 yuan / ton on July 19. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6800-7000 yuan / ton.

As of July 25, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 6775.00 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from 6840.00 yuan / ton on July 19. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 6700-6800 yuan / ton.

On July 25, the naphtha commodity index was 86.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.20% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 103.60% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week. The refined naphtha market was weak this week, and the downstream just needed to purchase.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rebounds after falling, and the news of OPEC + production increase will be gradually digested. With the economic recovery, the optimistic prospect of international energy demand or the strong shock trend of supporting crude oil, the international crude oil price may remain high, and there is great pressure for the continuous rise of international crude oil.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene rebounded after falling this week. The price of toluene was 5780 yuan / ton on July 19 and 5780 yuan / ton on July 25, and the price remained stable. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On July 19, the price of mixed xylene was 5920.00 yuan / ton, and on July 25, the price was 5860.00 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.01%. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 7100 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 12 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2021 (7.19-7.23), and the top three commodities are dimethyl ether (4.15%), power coal (3.66%) and liquefied natural gas (2.01%). There are three commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products are asphalt (- 2.43%), coke (- 0.95%) and naphtha (- 0.11%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.81%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent rebound after the decline of international crude oil prices, the naphtha market is affected by the trend of crude oil and the slow release of terminal and aromatic demand, resulting in poor market activity, mainly downstream on-demand procurement, strong market wait-and-see mood, and it is expected to focus on refining naphtha in the near future.