1、 Price quotation

According to the data of business news agency, the cotton market in June experienced a process of first rising and then falling, and then rising again in the second half of the month. The price of 3128b lint was about 15791 yuan / ton on the 1st, and 16159 yuan / ton on the 30th, up 2.33% and 35.86% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: China’s cotton price index 3128b rose, with 15780 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 16097 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 317 yuan / ton, up about 2%. The settlement price of Zheng Mian’s main contract on the first day was 15470 yuan / ton, while the settlement price on the 30th day was 16020 yuan / ton, up 550 yuan / ton, up about 3.56%. In the middle of the month, the domestic supply and price stabilization policies were constantly introduced, which promoted the rational formation of commodity market prices. The domestic cotton spot price changed from rising to falling, and the domestic cotton yarn price changed to a small decline. In the second half of the month, Zheng cotton futures market rose, cotton spot rose.

According to customs statistics, in May 2021, China imported 170000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 60000 tons or 26% on a month on month basis, an increase of 100000 tons or more than doubled on a year-on-year basis. In May, China imported 168700 tons of cotton yarn, a month on month decrease of 27.12% and a year-on-year increase of 66.24%; The export of cotton yarn was 24800 tons, a month on month decrease of 8.95% and a year-on-year increase of 66.44%; The net import volume was 144000 tons, down 29.54% month on month and up 66.21% year on year.

International: supported by the US $6 trillion stimulus package, international cotton prices showed obvious rebound after resistance. International cotton price index rose, ice futures also rose. In the middle of the month, the US Department of Agriculture released the monthly forecast of global cotton supply and demand. In 2021 / 22, the global ending inventory decreased by 370600 tons to 19443000 tons. The output and consumption data of 2021 / 22 are the same as that of last month. With the decrease of inventory at the beginning of the period and the increase of export volume, the inventory at the end of the period is now reduced by 43600 tons to 631000 tons. Stimulated by data, international cotton prices continue to rise.

According to the rumors of interest rate increase by the central and US Federal Reserve in June, US stocks fell, international cotton futures prices fell, and spot prices fell significantly. In the following week, the Federal Reserve eased its interest rate increase speech and eased the market’s cautious mood, pushing the US stock market to a record high, adding to the hurricane rain weather in the US cotton area, supporting the rise of international cotton prices.

3、 Downstream industry chain

Summer is the traditional textile off-season, although the textile market began to enter the traditional off-season, but the overall sales are relatively smooth, and there is no significant accumulation of stock in the yarn mill. Zheng cotton and cotton yarn futures rose, as well as low inventory support yarn prices continued to stabilize, textile enterprises maintain a high operating rate. Due to the shortage of new orders in the cotton yarn market, the transaction price of some imported yarns increased due to the tight overseas freight transportation. In the downstream grey cloth market, the actual transactions are less, mainly in small batch or duplicate orders. Cotton prices rose, the willingness to replenish the lower reaches is not high, textile mills to maintain just need to purchase position, is expected to be stable in the short term.