1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week. On May 16, the price of pure benzene was 8150-8300 yuan / ton (average price was 8230 yuan / ton), on Sunday (May 23), the price of pure benzene was 7700-8200 yuan / ton (average price was 8080 yuan / ton), and the average price fell 150 yuan / ton, or 1.82%, compared with last week; It was 133.53% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, crude oil, broad lower outside, bad news outside; The downstream styrene rises and falls, driving the center of gravity of pure benzene downward; The downstream procurement of local refining is general, the pressure of local refining shipment increases, and the price falls. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained at 8200 yuan / ton, while the price of local refining was significantly lower than that of Sinopec’s listed price, and the market was waiting for its price guidance.

In terms of external market, the restart of maintenance equipment in Europe, the increase of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States, and the price drop have driven the price of pure benzene in Asia to fall sharply, which is bad for the domestic market mentality. On Friday (May 21), the reference price of pure benzene in the South Korean market was 951 US dollars / ton, down 92.67 US dollars / ton or 8.88% from May 14; The import reference price of East China was US $995 / T, down 55 US dollars / T, or 5.24%, from May 14.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil rose first and then fell continuously during the week. In the early stage, driven by the optimistic prospect of demand recovery in Europe and the United States, international oil prices rose; However, we heard that the nuclear talks between the United States and Iran have made progress, and the market is worried about the supply of crude oil or the increase of bad oil price, so the oil price turns down. Compared with May 14, Brent fell by $2.15/barrel, or 3.11%; WTI fell $1.78 per barrel, or 2.72%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene rose first and then fell. On May 23, the price of sample enterprises was 10433.33 yuan / ton, up 2.79% from last week, and 89.7% from the same period last year. The supply of domestic styrene has increased, but the spot terminal inventory is low and the spot supply is tight; The prices of the three major downstream industries were temporarily stable, the profits of the factories improved, and the demand for rigid demand increased.

Aniline: the price of aniline is weak this week. The aniline plant in the field is running normally, the downstream demand is generally followed up, and the inventory of the enterprise is accumulated. In addition, the week’s weak cost side, drag aniline market mentality. On May 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10700-11000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11100 yuan / ton. The average price was 4.08% lower than last week, 2.17% higher than the beginning of the month, 38.82% higher than the beginning of the year, and 141.91% higher than the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, recent nuclear discussions between the United States and Iran may be negative for oil prices. However, the global economy and demand are expected to improve as a whole, and crude oil still has upward momentum. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the epidemic situation, OPEC + production reduction plan, global economic data and US crude oil inventory data.

Downstream: the cost of styrene, the main downstream product, is well supported. In the short term, the terminal will continue to go to the warehouse and the inventory will remain low, so the volume of tradable trade will be small and the downstream demand will be temporarily stable. It is expected that the styrene market will still be in the stage of shock consolidation in the short term.

The restart of pure benzene plant in Europe eases the tight situation of pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will continue to decline in the later period. However, the short-term tight situation of domestic supply still existed, and the arrival of pure benzene in Hong Kong decreased in the later period, limiting the decline. On the whole, pure benzene is likely to continue to decline next week. Pay attention to Sinopec’s price guidelines. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.