1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene rose continuously this week. On April 18, the price of pure benzene was 6373-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6820 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (April 25), the price of pure benzene was 7050-7400 yuan / ton (average price was 7280 yuan / ton), which was 460 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 6.74%; It was 129.65% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of pure benzene in Europe and the United States rose sharply, which led to a rapid rise in the price of pure benzene in Asia. The volume of imported pure benzene decreased, and the domestic market also followed suit. In addition, due to the tight supply of downstream styrene, the price continued to rise, supporting the price of pure benzene to a high level. This week, Sinopec actively increased the listing price of pure benzene, twice, with a total increase of 450 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton, with strong bottom support, boosting the market mentality.

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene in Asia unexpectedly soared this week, and fell in the second half of the week. The recovery of demand in Europe and the United States and the tight supply of pure benzene have led to the forced rise of pure benzene market price in Europe and the United States, the opening of arbitrage window in Asia, the United States and Europe, and the rapid rise of Asia’s external market. In the later period, the price fell back, but it was still at a high level. On Friday (April 23), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 953.33 US dollars / ton, up 16.33 US dollars / ton or 1.74% from April 16; The import reference price of East China was 960 US dollars / ton, up 29 US dollars / ton, or 3.11%, from April 16.

Crude oil, crude oil this week to maintain the range shock. Good news: some oil fields in Libya shut down and supply decreased. Bad: India is the third largest oil importer in the world. The number of COVID-19 infected COVID-19 has skyrocketed, and some areas have implemented blockade measures, and the recovery of crude oil demand has been suppressed. US commercial crude oil stocks unexpectedly increased. On April 16, Brent fell 0.345 USD / barrel, or 0.52%; WTI fell $1.05 per barrel, or 1.66%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene rose continuously this week. On April 23, the price of sample enterprises was 9800 yuan / ton, 6.41% higher than last week, and 101.37% higher than the same period last year. Styrene inventory is low, spot circulation is tight, price is firm, raw material price of pure benzene is rising, and near the end of the month, traders and downstream have replenishment demand, capital promotes the futures price to rise, driving the spot to close.

Aniline: in terms of demand, the shipment of aniline factory was stable in the next week; In terms of devices, Dongying Huatai and Jiangsu Yangnong devices were shut down for maintenance, and the market supply was reduced; In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene rose continuously, and the bidding price of enterprises rose. Positive boost, aniline prices rose in the week. On April 25, the price of aniline was 10600-10800 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11000 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 3.21% from last week and 102.52% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the later trend of crude oil mainly focused on OPEC + crude oil production change, US commercial crude oil inventory and refined oil inventory, global epidemic news and geographical situation.

Downstream: downstream main product styrene: near the end of the month, traders and downstream have replenishment demand, which is beneficial to styrene. However, due to the restart of maintenance devices and new production capacity, it is expected that the tight supply situation will be eased. Moreover, downstream production and sales are in the doldrums, and some load reduction parking will restrain the price of styrene. It is expected that styrene will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

The Asian and American arbitrage window of the external market opened, and the support was strong; Sinopec’s price is high with strong bottom support; Shandong Hongrun styrene plans to test run at the end of this month, and the demand in Shandong is expected to increase. Overall, the trend of pure benzene market is expected to be strong in the near future. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.