1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the spot copper price was 66733.33 yuan / ton, up 1.6% from 65680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 15.15% from the beginning of the year, and up 62.72% from a year earlier. At the beginning of this week, LME started to run in shock after the high opening of copper in March, closing at US $8974, up 1.92% in the week; this week, Shanghai copper index recovered in shock, closing at RMB 66940, down 0.34% in the week. This week, the international copper index closed at 59340 yuan, down 0.52%.

Copper prices rose slightly this week on the news that Chile, a major copper producer, blocked its border. The news of border blockade is expected to have little impact on the balance of copper supply and demand. The news of border blockade will mainly have an impact on global copper supply, but it is mainly speculation on the expected level. Different from the reduction of production and production caused by the epidemic that has been hyped since last year, the blockade in Chile is limited to personnel circulation, and the impact of mining industry is relatively limited. It is estimated that the impact will not last for long.

The increase of copper inventory is the main reason to limit the upward trend of copper price. As it is still in the digestion stage of copper price, the increase of inventory will also limit the upward space of copper price to a certain extent. According to the data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), since March, the copper inventory of the exchange has continued to rise from the low level of more than 70000 tons. As of Friday, the inventory rose to 163100 tons, a new three-and-a-half-month high. The cumulative increase of the inventory in March exceeded 90%. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, mainly volatile trend.