1、 Price trend

According to the business news agency, the price of steam coal rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 657.75 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at 700.75 yuan / ton, up 6.54%, 29.05% year-on-year. On March 25, the steam coal commodity index was 82.62, up 1.11 points from yesterday, down 33.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 84.83% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, the overall performance is good. The mining areas in Shaanxi maintain a low inventory state, and the number of coal mines in Inner Mongolia stop production for maintenance due to coal management ticket increases, while the supply decreases. At the end of the month, the number of coal mines shut down for maintenance increased, and the overall mine inventory was small.

Downstream power plants: the overall turnover is heating up. In the downstream, the daily consumption of power plants in coastal areas has picked up recently, and the inventory has maintained a slow decline. As of March 23, the six major coastal power companies had a total inventory of 14.608 million tons, daily consumption of 695000 tons and 21 days of availability. Traders mainly supported the price, and the daily consumption of power plants increased, which stimulated the demand for supplementary storage of steam coal, and the price of steam coal rose.

Macro: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on March 24, the national coal prices rose and fell in mid March. The specific price changes of all kinds of coal are as follows: anthracite (washing block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) price is 950 yuan / ton, the same as the previous period. The price of ordinary blended coal (the blended coal of Shanxi fine coal and lump coal, with a calorific value of 4500 kcal) was 485.4 yuan / ton, up 18.8 yuan / ton or 4% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dabiao (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 555 yuan / ton, up 24.7 yuan / ton or 4.7% over the previous period. The price of Shanxi Youhun (high-quality blended coal, calorific value 5500 kcal) was 635 yuan / ton, up 31.6 yuan / ton or 5.2% over the previous period. The price of Datong blended coal (produced in Datong, with calorific value of 5800 kcal) was 660 yuan / ton, up 26.6 yuan / ton or 4.2% over the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1482.9 yuan / ton, down 57.1 yuan / ton or 3.7% compared with the previous period. According to the above data, the anthracite price remained stable in mid March, the price increase of steam coal further expanded, and coking coal fell again.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the daily consumption of power plants is rising, driving the demand of power plants for steam coal replenishment. And the origin of good sales, steam coal prices or good support, prices. Overall, the price of steam coal may maintain a slight upward trend during the Spring Festival, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.