1、 Price trend
According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on March 16 was 3383.33 yuan / ton, up 0.99% from the previous day, 19.27% from the beginning of the month, 12.78% from the month on month, and 5.95% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In the first half of March, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas rose as a whole. In the first few days of the month, the price fell, and then rebounded, opening a rising channel. As of the 16th, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas rose by about 20%. The upward trend of liquid price in the first half of the month was mainly due to the successive days of price reduction in the early stage and the improvement of traffic conditions, the gradual smooth delivery of liquid plants, the incremental demand of downstream industrial users, the gradual increase of vehicle demand, the extension of heating period, the superposition of many favorable factors such as the maintenance of liquid plants, which helped the liquid price to actively push up and the price to rise. At present, there is a good trading atmosphere in the market. Since the 9th, the price of raw gas has been reduced to 1.48 yuan / m3, the support of cost side has weakened, and the liquid price has stabilized after rising. Wait and see the market, the manufacturers have a strong desire to support the market, and the market rises and falls differently. Most of them adjust the quotation slightly according to their own shipping situation. In this week, with the dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, some liquid plants entered into the state of maintenance, the supply reduced, the market sentiment gradually intensified, and the price rose steadily.
In the first half of March, the price of liquid rose steadily. On the 16th, the market rose more and fell less. Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Hebei and other places still actively adjusted their prices. The price of liquid rose and fell in some areas. Inner Mongolia was 3330-3500 yuan / ton, Shaanxi was 3380-3530 yuan / ton, Shanxi was 3280-3520 yuan / ton, Ningxia was 3350-3450 yuan / ton, Henan was 3520-3650 yuan / ton, Hebei was 3200-3650 yuan / ton raise.
Regional specifications: March 16 March 1
Inner Mongolia LNG 3330-3500 2650-2950 380-550
Shaanxi ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3380-3530 ﹣ 2690-2900 ﹣ 480-630
Shanxi LNG 3280-3520 2800-3020 260-500
Ningxia ﹣ liquefied natural gas ﹣ 3350-3450 ﹣ 2900-3000 ﹣ 350-450
Henan LNG 3520-3650 3050-3150 370-500
Hebei ﹣ LNG ﹣ 3200-3650 ﹣ 3050-3300 ﹣ up 150-300
The price of liquefied natural gas rose, driving the downstream products to rise more and fall less
On March 16, the reference price of methanol was 2425.00, up 5.66% compared with March 1 (2295.00). On March 16, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was lowered, and the mainstream negotiation price of methanol market in southern Shandong Province dropped by 10 yuan / ton to 2280-2300 yuan / ton. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2250-2260 yuan / ton and sent them to cash. The logistics goods offer price is limited. Shandong methanol Lubei market reference price 2130 yuan / ton to spot. In the short term, the domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out.
For urea, the ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province fell on March 15, which was 30 yuan / ton lower than that on March 12, with a decrease of 1.43%. The recent high level consolidation of upstream liquid ammonia shows good cost support. On the demand side: most of the agricultural needs are used as soon as they are purchased, the willingness of terminal purchasing is general, and the agricultural purchasing in mainstream areas is cautious; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants is acceptable, and the follow-up of small orders on bargain hunting, most of them follow the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 72.5%, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. Some of the fresh water storage sources have been expanded, and the start-up load of urea enterprises has been increased. Based on many factors such as the rising demand of local industries and the expectation of printing standards, some manufacturers are still willing to support the price. It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly and rise mainly: the average price quoted by manufacturers is about 2100 yuan / ton.
Dichloromethane, March 16, Shandong methane chloride market higher. On March 16, the reference price of dichloromethane was 3916.67, which was 7.7% higher than that on March 1 (3636.67). The price of methane chloride in Shandong’s methane chloride market was higher. The main factory price of dichloromethane was about 3820-4010 yuan / ton, and the main factory price of trichloromethane was about 4100-4380 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, and there is no pressure on the inventory of enterprises. The downstream market starts to recover slowly. It is expected that dichloromethane will continue to rise steadily in the later period.
Liquefied natural gas led the rise of energy sector. According to the price monitoring of business news agency, on March 16, 2021, there were four kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, and the top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (0.99%), MTBE (0.87%) and dimethyl ether (0.31%). There were 8 kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, with petroleum coke (- 1.01%), diesel (- 0.99%) and coke (- 0.88%) as the top three products. The average daily rise and fall was – 0.12%.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts of LNG from business news agency believe that: at present, the terminal gas consumption is increasing, the LNG market is improving, the price is rising continuously, and the liquid plant maintenance, the inventory is not high, the heating period is extended and other favorable factors are supporting. Under the situation that the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, it is expected that the market will continue to rise steadily in the short term.
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