According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the average price of acetic acid was 2770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton or 2.81% compared to the price of 2850 yuan/ton on November 1st.

The acetic acid market continued to decline in November, with companies continuously lowering their quotes. On the supply side, there is little change in the acetic acid plant on site, and the inventory of the enterprise continues to accumulate. The mentality of the operators is weak, and the shipping sentiment is strong; On the downstream side, the terminal market trading is weak, the downstream market is weak, the demand performance is insufficient, the market trading is weak, and there are significant bearish factors in the market, resulting in a weak downward trend in acetic acid prices.

As of November 11th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ November 1st/ November 11th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2675 yuan/ton/ -100

North China region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2660 yuan/ton/ -115

Shandong region/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2670 yuan/ton/ -80

Jiangsu region/ 2600 yuan/ton/ 2500 yuan/ton/ -100

Zhejiang region/ 2700 yuan/ton/ 2600 yuan/ton/ -100

The upstream methanol market fluctuates within a certain range. From November 1st to 11th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2475.00 yuan/ton to 2464.17 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.44%. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, market buying power is weak, the futures market lacks sufficient boost, and the momentum for methanol spot price increase is weak. At the same time, the recent increase in shipping costs has led to a weak operation of methanol prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On November 11th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5052.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the price of 5102.50 yuan/ton on November 1st. The upstream acetic acid market continues to decline, the cost of acetic anhydride is bearish, downstream entry enthusiasm is not high, market orders are limited, and the mentality of operators is poor, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride prices.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the acetic acid plant is operating normally, the market supply is sufficient, and there is significant pressure on companies to ship; Downstream and traders have weak purchasing power, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the supply on the market is strong while demand is weak. It is expected that the acetic acid market will remain weak and stable in the short term, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the DOP price was 9238.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.51% compared to the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton on November 1st. The demand for plasticizer DOP has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen. Plasticizer companies are operating steadily at a high level, but the off-season for downstream PVC demand is approaching. The demand for plasticizers is falling, and the price of plasticizer DOP is falling at a high level.

Downstream demand declines

Entering the second half of the year, downstream PVC product companies are gradually experiencing a decline in production. As we enter November, the market is in its off-season, and downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns colder, demand is weakening; The downstream market has fallen, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Raw material costs fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the price of isooctanol was 9266.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.58% compared to the price of 9033.33 yuan/ton on November 1st. In November, the demand for isooctanol rebounded, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the market support for isooctanol still exists. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. The cost of plasticizers has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has stabilized after rising, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, raw material prices will stabilize and plasticizer costs will stabilize; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations have decreased. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices rose in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 833 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 1037 yuan/ton, with an overall price increase of 24.49% and a price increase of 26.16% compared to the same period last year. On October 31st, the chemical index was 843 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 40.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable.

Since October, with the support of equipment maintenance and load reduction in the early stage of the East China region, the spot price of liquid alkali in the East China region has risen. From the perspective of enterprise inventory, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low. Downstream demand is expected to see a stable, medium to strong trend in domestic alumina prices in the short term, with good demand for caustic soda, driving up caustic soda prices. However, with the rise in prices, the non aluminum industry has a resistance to the price of caustic soda, and the price of caustic soda tends to consolidate.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 43rd week of 2024 (10.21-10.25), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 1 product that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen include caustic soda (5.05%), caustic soda flakes (4.25%), and calcium carbide (1.16%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are PVC (-0.79%) and baking soda (-0.75%). The average increase or decrease this week is 1.49%.

Business analysts believe that caustic soda prices have been consolidating recently. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, and there are expectations of maintenance and load reduction in some areas, resulting in relatively firm prices. The downstream demand for alumina is good, which provides some support for the price of caustic soda. Overall, it is expected to operate steadily in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (October 27-31, 2024), costs remained weak and stable, demand was light, and multiple parties held onto essential orders. The trading atmosphere on the market was average, and the overall market performance was weak. The price of nylon fiber continued to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline this week (October 27-31, 2024). As of October 31, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 1.71% from last week’s price; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan/ton or 2.48% compared to last week. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 18200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan/ton or 2.02% from last week’s price.

Weakness sorting of raw materials

This week (October 27-31, 2024), in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, inventory pressure remains high, supply side is still under pressure, spot prices are weakly stable, market sentiment is bearish, and the industry chain is mostly pessimistic. As of October 31, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 11202 yuan/ton, which is at a low point of the year.

Supply demand

This week (October 27-31, 2024), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production of nylon filament market is running at around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in October did not meet expectations, and the “Silver Ten” event did not occur. Terminal demand did not show significant improvement, and the situation of textile market orders was not optimistic. Daily production mainly consumed inventory, and the willingness to continue hoarding was poor. Demand follow-up was very limited, and market confidence was clearly insufficient.

Future forecast

The downstream market demand has not improved and still relies mainly on on-demand procurement; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. There is no significant positive boost in the market, and pessimistic sentiment is widespread in the market. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI market was in a stalemate in October. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 13050 yuan/ton, and on October 30th, the TDI price was 13100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.99%.

The performance of the domestic TDI market in October was average, with a sluggish peak season and weak price increases. The TDI market in October was greatly affected by the demand side, and downstream demand was weak. In order to stimulate sales, prices were prone to decline but difficult to rise, and the focus of transactions slightly loosened. The overall market trading is cautious, and the mentality of industry players is poor, with prices fluctuating slightly around 13000 yuan/ton.

The upstream toluene market first rose and then fell. As of October 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 5888 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the price of 5890 yuan/ton on October 1st. Driven by the continuous rise in the external market during the month, the toluene market made up for the post holiday gains. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, leading to an increase in market supply. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in October, the overall volatility of the TDI market was limited due to the constraints of raw materials and limited demand boost. Transactions remained light, and the Silver October market ended flat. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream purchasing follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market first rose and then fell in October. As of October 29th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7318 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90% from the beginning of the month.

In the first half of the year, the short fiber market was boosted by rising costs and favorable policies. During the National Day holiday, the Middle East issue escalated, causing concerns about affecting local crude oil supply and boosting crude oil prices. In addition, whether it is interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts to increase liquidity, or real estate policies to boost market confidence, they have a sustained upward effect on the commodity market. But with the weak adjustment of cost, insufficient cost support, and the demand for terminal consumption and essential procurement, the price of polyester staple fiber has slightly declined.

Looking at the future, on the cost side, Israel’s actions are currently limited and restrained, and market concerns about crude oil supply have decreased. International crude oil has opened low and gone low, weakening support for PTA costs. As of October 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.38 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.00 per barrel. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are the main reason, and the seasonal off-season demand in the United States is weak. Coupled with the possibility of Saudi Arabia increasing production in the future, oil prices will mainly operate weakly.

This month, the domestic PTA market first rose and then fell, and the decline slowed down after mid month. As of October 29th, the average market price in East China was 4881 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% from the beginning of the month. Only one 1.2 million ton plant in the northwest is planned to restart in early November. The PTA processing fee is still acceptable, but there is currently no PTA plant maintenance. PTA production capacity remains around 88%, and most enterprises have low intentions for plant maintenance. There are rumors that some long-term shutdown plants may restart. PTA production capacity operation rate will continue to operate at a high level, and spot supply is abundant.

The operating rate of downstream terminal weaving machines will weaken in early November, and the demand peak season will shift to the off-season. There will be no significant increase in orders, and the main focus will be on essential procurement. The supply of short fibers remains sufficient and is about to enter a new settlement cycle. The liquidity of spot goods tends to be loose. Considering the expected production of Yida’s new equipment on the supply side, the overall pressure of oversupply is difficult to alleviate.

Business analysts believe that there are many bearish factors in crude oil fundamentals, and PTA companies have a lower intention to carry out equipment maintenance. The seasonal peak season for consumption is coming to an end, and the downstream spinning industry is mainly experiencing a decline in production, resulting in a lack of favorable supply and demand. The basic highlights of polyester staple fiber are limited, and it is expected that PTA prices will remain weak and fluctuate in November.

On October 28th, the average market price of industrial grade anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in China was 10891 yuan/ton upon arrival at the factory, unchanged from the previous working day. At present, the mainstream to factory price of industrial grade anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in the domestic market is concentrated at 10450-11300 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been an increase in raw material prices, and the cost side is still under pressure. The market supply is scarce, and it is expected that prices will rise significantly at the beginning of next month.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and stabilized

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9226.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 0.14% compared to the DOP price of 9213.75 yuan/ton on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a 2.64% increase. The price of isooctanol is fluctuating and stabilizing, DOP costs are temporarily stable, DOP manufacturers have orders for sales, downstream demand and procurement are generally active, DOP manufacturers have stable high production levels, DOP supply is sufficient, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and stabilizing.

Downstream demand is expected to rebound

Policy favorable, macroeconomic sentiment rising, October coming to an end, downstream demand falling, downstream operating load relatively stable, market recovery, expected increase in demand for plasticizers market.

Raw material costs fluctuate and stabilize

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and stabilized compared to the price of isooctanol on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the price of isooctanol at 8706.67 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 5.67%. This week, the supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, with expected sales of orders from isooctanol manufacturers. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% from the price of 7287.50 yuan/ton on October 18th; Compared to October 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride at 7200 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a decrease of 0.35%. This week, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment has been stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market are limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, the price of industrial naphthalene is temporarily stable, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride still exists. The overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and stabilizing, while the price of phthalic anhydride is fluctuating and falling, and the cost of plasticizer DOP is weakly stabilizing; In terms of demand, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the demand for plasticizers is declining. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; Policy support, expected recovery of plasticizer DOP market, high operating load of plasticizer manufacturers, sufficient supply of DOP, double increase in supply and demand, relatively balanced supply and demand in the plasticizer market, and expected fluctuation and consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid price rebounded weakly in mid to late October and continued to operate steadily. As of October 21, the domestic formic acid price of 85% was 2771 yuan/ton, up 3.74% from 2675 yuan/ton before the holiday and unchanged from last week.

The price of raw material methanol storage has fallen, providing insufficient support for formic acid

Recently, the price of methanol spot market has fallen from a high level, and the price of port spot market has decreased with the market. With the adjustment of macro policies and changes in market environment, the positive support for the methanol market in the early stage has gradually weakened. The overall supply of methanol in the mainland market remains at a high level. In the short term, manufacturers in the main production areas mainly rely on inventory discharge due to the increasing inventory pressure. This has further intensified the supply pressure on the methanol market, leading to downward pressure on prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid raw material support is insufficient, and there is no significant improvement in market demand. The formic acid market may experience weak fluctuations.

Analysis: This week (10.14-18), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.35%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2500-2750 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement will slow down, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. However, supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.