The overall price of baking soda in 2024 is weak, with an average market price of around 2688 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 1546 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 42.49%.

Take a look at the annual price comparison chart of baking soda. From the chart, it can be seen that the price trend of baking soda in 2024 was relatively good at the beginning of the year, and then the price weakened and continued to operate.

As the upstream of baking soda, the price fluctuation of light alkali affects the price of baking soda. The highest point of light alkali in 2024 occurred at the beginning of the year with a price of 2790 yuan/ton, and the lowest point was 1528 yuan/ton at the end of December; The highest point of baking soda was 2688 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and the lowest point was 1546 yuan/ton at the end of the year. It can be seen that there is a very close connection between the two.

Let’s take a look at the specific price trend. Baking soda prices will generally show three stages in 2024. Prices fell from January to mid April, rose from late April to early July, and then fell by the end of the year.

The price has been declining from the beginning of the year to early April, mainly due to the weak operation of upstream soda ash prices, the overall trading atmosphere is average, and the downstream demand for soda ash is average, still mainly purchasing on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The game between upstream and downstream supply and demand has led market participants to have a strong bearish attitude towards the future. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in weak prices for baking soda.

From late April to early June, the price of baking soda rose, and the recent trend has been strong. On the one hand, baking soda manufacturers have been experiencing tight supply recently. On the other hand, the upstream raw material of baking soda, soda ash, has been experiencing a strong upward trend recently. Finally, downstream demand for baking soda in pharmaceuticals, textiles, food, and other fields has been relatively good recently.

Since mid to late June, the price of baking soda has been running weakly, with upstream soda ash prices declining and downstream demand for baking soda average. Baking soda prices have not been supported by favorable factors, leading to a continuous decline in prices.

How will the price of baking soda develop in 2025, with weak fluctuations in 2024?

On the supply side: In terms of changes in China’s baking soda production capacity, output, and operating rate, the production capacity and output of baking soda in China continue to expand against the backdrop of sustained growth in downstream demand in the food, industrial, and feed sectors.

On the demand side: In terms of the price trend of baking soda in China, the price of baking soda is greatly affected by the fluctuation of upstream raw material soda ash prices. The supply side will maintain a loose situation, and soda ash production will continue to increase in 2024. In terms of new production capacity, a total of 4.8 million tons will be added in 2025, and the total production capacity may reach 47.45 million tons. The amount of investment in 2025 far exceeds that of 2024, and the domestic soda ash industry has entered a rapid expansion cycle. The supply pressure has further increased, and inventory levels are expected to rise simultaneously, thereby suppressing the expectation of soda ash price increases.

In terms of import and export: Domestic baking soda production capacity accounts for about 40% of global production capacity, and the export volume is significantly higher than the import volume. As for the overall import and export volume of baking soda in China, with the continuous growth of demand for high-end baking soda domestically, the import volume continues to increase. Although there is still a significant gap compared to exports, the main reason is that with the tightening of domestic environmental policies and the increase in the use of baking soda for desulfurization and denitrification, the overall import demand continues to increase.

Business analysts believe that the supply of baking soda continues to expand, and there will still be 4.8 million new production capacity for downstream soda ash in 2025, indicating a continued demand for baking soda. The economy is recovering, and the downstream opening of baking soda will have some recovery, which may increase the demand for baking soda. Now that the Spring Festival is approaching, downstream preparation for baking soda is coming to an end, and the price of baking soda is not fluctuating much. As the weather warms up in the future, the price of baking soda will increase. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will be better in the second half of 2023 than in the first half, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Market price trend

The market price of acrylic acid shows a fluctuating upward trend, but the upward trend has narrowed. This is mainly due to the result of the game between supply and demand, where the contradiction between the expected release of supply and the weak growth of downstream demand makes it difficult for prices to break through. Despite the price increase, the upward space for prices will narrow, and the market will consolidate within a certain range. As of January 21st, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 7725.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.32% compared to the beginning of this month (7550.00 yuan/ton).

2、 Market supply and demand situation

1. Supply side:

The recent maintenance and resumption of production of acrylic acid plants have had a direct impact on the supply side. Due to maintenance or reduced load operation, some devices have maintained a narrowing trend in the utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity. However, with the gradual resumption of maintenance equipment, the supply side is expected to release more production capacity.

At the same time, some newly added production capacity is about to be put into operation, which will further increase market supply. However, there is uncertainty in the production progress and capacity release of newly added capacity, and the specific impact on market supply is still difficult to determine.

2. Demand side:

The main downstream application areas of acrylic acid include coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, water treatment agents, etc. However, downstream demand has not significantly increased in recent times, and companies have maintained cautious inventory management strategies, leading to increased market wait-and-see sentiment. Due to the expected release on the supply side, but weak growth in downstream demand, the market is in a stalemate.

3、 Market competition pattern

The competition in the acrylic acid market is fierce, and companies may adopt price reduction strategies to compete for market share. However, in situations of supply-demand imbalance, this strategy may not work as expected. Some companies may choose more sustainable development plans, such as improving product quality and optimizing production processes to reduce costs and enhance competitive advantages.

4、 Cost effectiveness:

Propylene is the main raw material for the production of acrylic acid, so fluctuations in propylene prices will directly affect the production cost of acrylic acid. When the price of propylene rises, the production cost of acrylic acid increases accordingly. In order to maintain profit levels, acrylic acid producers usually increase their selling prices. On the contrary, when the price of propylene drops, the production cost of acrylic acid decreases, and producers may lower their sales prices to compete for market share. As of January 21st, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6865.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

5、 Market outlook

In the short term, the acrylic acid market is likely to continue to maintain a volatile consolidation state. Although the expectation of supply side release is gradually increasing, the weak growth of downstream demand remains a major concern in the market.

In the long run, the acrylic acid industry has broad market demand and stable growth prospects. The development of emerging markets and the acceleration of industrialization will drive the continuous increase in demand for acrylic acid and its related products.

In summary, the acrylic acid market is currently in a state of stalemate and consolidation within the market. This is mainly due to the outcome of the game between supply and demand, as well as the impact of weak downstream demand growth. The future market trend will depend on further competition between supply and demand sides, as well as changes in the macroeconomic environment.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the DOP price was 8613.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.53% compared to the DOP price of 8401.25 yuan/ton on January 13th last week. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. Spring Festival stocking, increasing demand for plasticizers. Supported by rising costs and demand, there is a significant driving force for the increase in plasticizers.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 20th, the price of isooctanol was 7966.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.37% compared to the price of 7633.33 yuan/ton on January 13th last week. The construction of new equipment and the high level of equipment construction in isooctanol enterprises have led to sufficient supply of isooctanol. With stocking before the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol has rebounded, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. With the end of stocking, the demand for isooctanol has fallen, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has increased.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen, the price of phthalic anhydride has increased significantly, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has risen; In terms of demand, the Spring Festival replenishment is supported by the demand for plasticizers. In the future, with the end of Spring Festival stocking, the demand for raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizers will decrease, and the cost support for plasticizers will weaken, resulting in weak demand; It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will slightly decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market saw a slight increase on the 17th. From a news perspective, international oil prices have fallen, with average support from the raw material side. The on-site supply is sufficient, supported by pre holiday stocking, and the on-site transactions are still acceptable. It is expected that the port inventory will increase in the future, and the possibility of a short-term rise followed by a decline in the styrene market is expected to increase.

The market price of epichlorohydrin has slightly increased this week. As of January 15th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin in Shengyi Society was 8975.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.41% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

On the raw material side, the prices of propylene and liquid chlorine have fluctuated this week, supported by high glycerol prices. Overall, there is still pressure on the cost side. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 14th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 7118.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.13% compared to the beginning of this month (6835.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The overall operating rate of the epichlorohydrin industry this week is about 50%.

Downstream demand side: Narrow adjustment in downstream epoxy resin market. As the Spring Festival approaches, market demand has decreased and prices have remained relatively stable. The atmosphere of new order transactions is cold.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand will decrease, but cost support still exists. In addition, some supply side enterprises have a low operating rate of about 50% overall, and low-priced goods in the market are gradually decreasing. Traders’ quotes are firm, and it is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable next week. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 13th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 1721 yuan/ton, which is 0.58% higher than the reference average price of 1711 yuan/ton on January 6th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

The domestic urea market price has slightly rebounded after a decline this week. As of January 13th, the factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1580-1620 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1660 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1620 yuan/ton, in Hubei region it is around 1610 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1710 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

The supply and demand balance in the urea market this week. On the supply side, urea supply is sufficient this week, and market inventory remains loose. In terms of demand, downstream purchases are made on demand, seeking lower prices for purchases. Urea companies have stable shipments, and market trading volume has increased.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the domestic urea market has recently stopped falling and stabilized. Although there has been a slight rebound at present, there is still no significant positive news in the market. It is expected that the domestic urea market will mainly operate within the price range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11733 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11800/ton, with a price increase of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is actively selling and transactions are accelerating to support price increases, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market is experiencing accelerated sales, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

The phthalic anhydride market saw a slight increase in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6612.50 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 6600 yuan/ton on January 1st. Stable operation of phthalic anhydride equipment and stable supply of phthalic anhydride; Plasticizer companies are operating at a high level, and there is active demand for phthalic anhydride procurement, which supports the demand for phthalic anhydride. With stocking up before the Spring Festival, the demand for phthalic anhydride briefly increased.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

In December, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants remained stable at a high level, with 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers operating at full capacity. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers was stable, and the supply was sufficient.

The cost of raw materials for benzene in January is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the price of ortho xylene was 6700 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on January 1st at 6700 yuan/ton. In January, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride remained stable, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride stabilized. The downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride still exists. Industrial naphthalene prices are consolidating strongly, while the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. The overall cost support for phthalic anhydride raw materials still exists.

Demand side: The DOP market fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 7th, the DOP price was 8513.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.49% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st. The profit of plasticizer DOP is high, and plasticizer enterprises are actively operating. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is high. After the New Year’s Day holiday, they will replenish their inventory, and in addition, manufacturers will replenish their inventory before the Spring Festival. The demand for phthalic anhydride is supported by high demand, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is low. The upward support for phthalic anhydride still exists.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is stabilizing, the price of industrial naphthalene is consolidating strongly, the cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride cost is weak; In terms of demand, DOP manufacturers have high operating loads, coupled with stocking up before the Spring Festival, which provides strong support for phthalic anhydride demand. Overall, with limited cost support and significant downstream demand support, it is expected that the phthalic anhydride market will experience strong consolidation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market saw a slight increase from December 30 to January 6, 2024. On December 30th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6050 yuan/ton, and on January 6th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5%. This week, the overall trend of the toluene market remained stable with a slight increase, while the overall trend of crude oil remained stable with a slight increase, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The purchasing enthusiasm of diversified enterprises in Shandong region is still relatively good, and the overall demand for oil blending is weak. At present, the overall supply is stable but slightly tight, and the ex factory prices of refineries in Shandong have slightly increased. The atmosphere in the spot market is good.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.96 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $76.51 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, and the company is currently operating normally. The production of the equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of January 6th, East China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 6th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7100 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on December 30th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 3rd, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 819-821 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to December 30th.

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The demand side has shown decent performance recently, with Shandong performing well and other regions showing overall stability. Recently, the inventory of ports in East China has slightly increased on the supply side. It is expected that the toluene market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term under the boost of demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of ethyl acetate slightly decreased on December 31st, with a factory price of 5746.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous trading day. The cost support is still acceptable, with downstream demand as the main factor. The mentality of supplier enterprises is poor, and the price of ethyl acetate has been adjusted downward.

Market analysis: Ethyl acetate has experienced a narrow downward trend. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is stable but slightly strong, with good cost support; On the demand side, downstream enthusiasm is not high, following up on market entry as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is average; Some factories have a poor mentality and limited shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in the price of ethyl ester based on inventory.

In the future, the market for ethyl acetate raw materials is relatively strong, with strong upward momentum. The supply side and manufacturers have different shipments, and sales pressure still exists. The downstream mentality is wait-and-see, and demand for purchasing is weak, resulting in a market supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable and operate after the holiday. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.