According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall toluene market has been declining recently (7.19-7.26). On July 26th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% during the period. During this cycle, the overall toluene market has been weak, with market prices fluctuating downwards. Supply remained tight this week, and refinery inventories have been running at a low level. On the demand side, the downstream procurement intention is low and the intention to receive goods is insufficient, which has a certain drag on market sentiment. During the week, the focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined, and downstream companies maintained their demand for replenishment. As of the 26th, the mainstream price range in East China is 7330-7410 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 200-210 yuan/ton compared to last week.

On the cost side: At the beginning of this cycle, the trend of crude oil has declined. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has eased, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle. As of July 25th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.28 per barrel, an increase of $0.69 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.66 or 0.8%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotations have generally decreased this week, but there are slight differences in the degree of adjustment among different underground sources. The company is operating normally, with stable equipment production and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7500 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7600-7650 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7550 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On July 26th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current execution price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implemented this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units of Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene on July 26th, with a current execution price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implemented this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and had normal sales. The external PX price continues to decline, with CFR China closing at $993-995/ton as of July 25th, a decrease of $16/ton from last week.

On Thursday (July 25th), the Asian toluene market closed down, with the FOB Korea closing price of 844-846 US dollars/ton in August, down 7 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in August was 891-893 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, and the support on the cost side is weak. The maintenance of the toluene unit in terms of supply is gradually coming to an end, and the market expects that supply will resume in the future. In terms of demand, as August approaches, the market expects inventory demand to gradually recover with the “Golden September and Silver October” and future holidays. The toluene market will also enter a period of active trading, which still provides some support for market sentiment. Overall, the toluene market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of equipment resumption on market supply.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the price of isooctanol was 9480 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.67% compared to the price of 9740 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, downstream factories purchased according to demand, the plasticizer market declined, downstream enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards, resulting in significant downward pressure on isooctanol.

This week, the price of raw material propylene first fell and then rose

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of July 19th, the price of propylene was 7220.75 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.35% compared to the price of 7195.75 yuan/ton on July 12th; Compared to July 17th, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased by 7160.75 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.84%. Crude oil prices first fell and then rose, while propylene cost support still exists; The fluctuation of the equipment has led to a decrease in the production of propylene manufacturers, a tightening of supply from propylene manufacturers, and a halt in the decline and rise in propylene prices.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9725 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.89% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of DOP, a plasticizer, has fluctuated and fallen this week. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry, with both domestic demand off-season and export reduction coexisting. Downstream manufacturers are in the off-season, with low production levels and weak follow-up on actual transactions. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, propylene prices first fell and then rose, while isooctanol cost support still exists; On the supply side, isooctanol manufacturers offer discounts for sales, and new orders are generally shipped; In terms of demand, during the off-season of the market, the prices of downstream plasticizers of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, resulting in weak downstream demand. Overall, the stable supply and demand of isooctanol are poor, and cost support still exists. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 8550 yuan/ton. In July, cyclohexane prices remained stable, but the overall market lacked upward momentum. Currently, downstream demand from manufacturers is average, and the market transaction atmosphere is positive. The prices of mainstream cyclohexane factories are stable with a strong trend.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: In early July, the upstream pure benzene prices were weak, and the inventory of ports in East China increased. The inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The market supply is abundant, the pure benzene market continues to decline, and the cost side crude oil market prices are running low, with insufficient support on the cost side.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently insufficient support from the upstream cost side and insufficient demand from the downstream. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with a mainstream price range of 8500 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9533.33 yuan/ton on July 1st, and 9468.33 yuan/ton on July 9th, an increase of 0.37%. The current price has increased by 28.24% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has slightly increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. The main reason for the increase is that the inventory of styrene has decreased rapidly, and the unit load is low. There is an expectation of further decline in supply, and the styrene market is trading actively, resulting in an upward trend in the market.

Cost side

Recently, pure benzene has continued to decline overall. At present, the pure benzene port inventory has slightly increased. The pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu region is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. Most refineries in Shandong have lowered their offers. As of July 9th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in the Shandong market is 8800 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the year, pure benzene is currently accumulating inventory, and the market is relatively under pressure, with limited support for styrene.

Supply side

In July, there were many inspections of styrene plants, and the inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu Province was 35900 tons, a decrease of 13100 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 49000 tons, a decrease of 26.73%. The inventory of styrene remains low, and domestic supply remains at a relatively low level, which is beneficial for the styrene market. Under the current profit situation, the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start production is limited, and it is expected that the supply pressure of styrene will not be significant in mid to late July.

Demand side

Recently, the three major downstream markets of styrene have seen two increases and one level. The EPS market is stable, with downstream high prices resisting. Production is mainly focused on digesting the inventory of finished products in the early stage, and the market has a clear wait-and-see atmosphere. New order transactions are weak. Domestic ABS prices are rising. ABS finished product inventory is relatively high during the same period, but demand has increased, market transactions are good, and the market has slightly increased. The PS market is fluctuating and rising. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 9750-11000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 10100-11600 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society, the current styrene port inventory is low, and the production of styrene units has decreased significantly, leading to a decrease in supply expectations. However, due to the drag of the cost side pure benzene market, the increase may be limited. Shengyi Society analysts expect a slight increase in the styrene market.

In June, the price trend of domestic fluorite slightly declined. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3781.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% from the initial price of 3812.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 21.29%.

On the supply side: low mining operation rate and tight supply of fluorite

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will continue to be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments will carry out rectification and renovation of fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. In addition, an accident at a certain mine in Jiangxi has caused some mines in the region to undergo safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite goods is still tight, and the decline in fluorite prices is limited.

Demand side: Weak demand for hydrofluoric acid, declining refrigerant production

In June, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend declined, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China was 11000-11500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak, and some devices are still in shutdown recently. There is not much change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have lower orders for hydrofluoric acid. The price of hydrofluoric acid is dragging down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market has slightly declined.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market’s production demand has weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has continued, and refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions, making them less proactive in purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the market for fluorite has slightly declined.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has maintained a high level.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market is declining, and the demand for downstream refrigerant industry is gradually weakening. Both long and short factors are affecting the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices may slightly decline in the future.

On June 25th, the price of ethylene glycol rose

In late June, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded. According to data from Business Society, as of June 25th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4523.33 yuan/ton, which is 0.09% lower than the average price of 4526.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on June 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4690 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4300 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

On June 25, 2024, the trading price of ethylene glycol basis spread at the port was between -17 and -12, and the futures market price rose. The basis spread quotation in East China strengthened during the day. At present, the basis of forward contracts remains in a near low and far high pattern. The spot price of ethylene glycol at the port ranges from 4540 to 4575 yuan/ton.

Reduced inventory at ports with low arrivals

This week, there was a significant decrease in port inventory. As of June 24th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 708500 tons, a decrease of 41100 tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on June 20th, which was 749600 tons. On June 24th, the inventory outflow situation in East China was as follows: around 7800 tons of MEG were shipped from the mainstream storage area of Zhangjiagang; The two mainstream storage areas in Taicang produce around 6300 tons of MEG.

June spot forward contract delivery, spot strength

Approaching delivery, there are rumors in the spot market that there will be a delivery, and starting from last Thursday, the ethylene glycol basis spread has been climbing all the way. The expected receipt of goods, combined with the strengthening of the futures market, has led to a surge in the spot price of ethylene glycol. Some oil to ethylene glycol manufacturers in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions mainly ship under contracts. Currently, orders are scheduled until November, with an external quotation of 2409 contracts+30. The base price range for port goods in the market in July is -8 to+5 (2409 contracts), which is near low but far high.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of May 31st, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43350 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42066.67 yuan/ton. In May, the overall weak operation of lithium iron phosphate was the main trend, with upstream prices of iron phosphate maintaining a weak trend. The cost side lacks support, and the price of lithium carbonate is weakly declining with limited increase. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak, and the supply and demand balance in the short term is the main trend in the lithium iron phosphate market.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: In May, upstream lithium carbonate was mainly weakly operated, with a focus on low negotiations and high inventory levels. The market supply pressure continued, and some manufacturers had a strong willingness to lower prices, leading to a continued downward shift in spot prices. It is expected that lithium carbonate will maintain a stable, medium, and weak trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, from a cost perspective, upstream prices have risen and fallen, while lithium iron phosphate prices maintain their current trend. Currently, inventory is operating at a high level, and companies have a clear willingness to lower prices. Inventory reduction is the main focus, and it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term. The price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate will remain around 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate will remain around 42300 yuan/ton.

Recently (May 23~May 31), the market price of butadiene rubber has significantly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 14090 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.37% from 13500 yuan/ton on May 23. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has strengthened; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased but still remains at a low level; Downstream production of all steel tires has slightly decreased, and on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber has led to a significant increase in butadiene futures, driving a bullish market atmosphere. The supply and price of butadiene have gradually increased, and merchant quotations have followed suit.

Recently (May 23 to May 31), the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber is strongly supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11875 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.50% from 11150 yuan/ton on May 23.

Recently (May 23 to May 31), there has been a slight increase in the production of domestic butadiene rubber plants, but they are still at a low level. As of the end of May, the production of domestic butadiene rubber has been around 520%; The Qixiang Tengda Shunding rubber device was restarted to normal operation in late May; Taixiang Yubu Shunding Equipment will restart operation from May 24th; The butadiene rubber plant of Jinzhou Petrochemical was gradually restarted at the end of May.

Demand side: In the near future (May 23 to May 31), downstream tire production has slightly declined, providing strong support for the rigid demand for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of late May, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly decreased to 6.60%; Downstream suppliers tend to stock up on demand for polybutadiene rubber.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will rise again, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will be strong; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, but it is still at a low level and the market supply is tight; At present, downstream tire companies are consolidating their production in a narrow range, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market has remained strong in the near future under the support of cost and low production.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the toluene market in May fell first and then rose, with an overall slight decline. On May 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7610 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 7510 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it decreased by 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 7480 yuan/ton.

International crude oil price range fluctuations have weak support for toluene

The international crude oil price range fluctuated in May, with weak support for toluene. As of May 31st, the closing price of WTI07 contract is 76.99 US dollars per barrel; The Brent 08 contract closed at $81.11 per barrel.

The rising price of toluene in the external market provides support for the domestic market

The price of toluene in Asia rose significantly in May, providing support for the domestic toluene market. As of May 30th, the CFR China toluene price in June was between 928-930 US dollars per ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the month.

The production of xylene has decreased, and the demand support for toluene has weakened

In early May, due to the restart of the early maintenance equipment, the overall production of xylene rebounded to around 7.9%; Starting from mid May, PX units such as Weilian Chemical, Fuhai Chuang, and Hengli Petrochemical began to shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production gradually decreased to around 740% at the end of the month. In May, the price of PX in Asian foreign markets rose significantly, providing strong support for the domestic PX market. As of May 30th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1032-1034 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1057-1059 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending demand and weak support for toluene

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of the end of May, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.

TDI demand is weak, and starting production maintains a low level, which weakens support for toluene

The TDI market in May saw a narrow consolidation with slight price fluctuations. The terminal market has a strong demand for purchasing, and downstream entry enthusiasm is not high. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the trade market has a wait-and-see attitude. The supplier’s quotation is firm, and the prices of the holders are stable with slight adjustments. The market trading is slightly stagnant.

Significant decrease in port inventory and relief of supply pressure

The inventory of domestic toluene ports has decreased, and the overall resistance to the upward movement of toluene has decreased. As of May 30th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 45000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 3000 tons, a significant decrease from the end of April.

The pressure on the toluene supply surface is not high due to the combination of device restart and maintenance in the later stage

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in early June; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics resumed operations in late May. There are still some maintenance plans for aromatic hydrocarbon units in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, the current international crude oil market is fluctuating and consolidating, with narrow fluctuations in toluene costs; The demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected; The restart and maintenance of the toluene unit coexist in the later stage, and the pressure on the supply side is not high. It is expected that the toluene market will mainly consolidate in the later stage.

This week, the price of acetic anhydride first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% compared to May 25th, when the price of acetic anhydride was 5525.00 yuan/ton. This week, the price of acetic acid fell first and then rose, with limited cost support for acetic anhydride; Acetic anhydride enterprises are operating steadily, with sufficient market supply. Downstream demand follows suit, but demand support is weak. Acetic anhydride manufacturers are actively shipping, and the price of acetic anhydride follows upstream trends, falling first and then rising.

Weak and volatile acetic acid market

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% from the price of 3200 yuan/ton on May 25th. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of enterprises continued to be high, and downstream demand was weak. The quotation for acetic acid continued to decline. In the later part of the week, some acetic acid factories shut down, and the inventory of enterprises decreased. The intention of manufacturers to increase prices increased, and the price of acetic acid increased accordingly, which was mainly bearish for the acetic anhydride market.

Future prospects

According to the acetic acid analyst of Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market has slightly increased, and manufacturers have a clear intention of increasing prices, which is supported by the cost of acetic anhydride; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a strong shipping sentiment; Follow up downstream as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is favorable, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will consolidate and rise in the later period, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market.