According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market in March showed a “V” trend of first falling and then rising. As of March 28th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4906 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, prices weakened due to cost reduction and weak demand, while in the second half, cost recovery boosted the PTA market sentiment. Specifically, let’s take a look:

The significant increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded market expectations, indicating a slower than expected demand recovery. OPEC+’s decision to increase production further strengthened supply pressure, and WTI crude oil futures fell to their lowest point since May 2023. Subsequently, with the strengthening of crude oil and the arrival of maintenance season for PX end units, cost support has been strengthened. As of March 27th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.92 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.34 per barrel.
From the perspective of PX supply and demand, the 2.5 million ton PX unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical will undergo routine shutdown in late March, while multiple PX units in South Korea have plans to expand their maintenance scale, resulting in an increase in PX maintenance both domestically and internationally in April and May. On the demand side, PTA factories are operating at a high load and performing well. Domestic PX will continue to reduce inventory, and the price focus will also shift upward.
From the perspective of self supply, there was an increase in PTA plant maintenance in March, and some plants were gradually restarted at the end of the month. The overall supply is still abundant, and as of the end of March, the industry’s operating rate was around 80%. It is expected that there will be a maintenance plan for 8 million tons of equipment in April, which will alleviate the supply pressure. However, PTA’s own inventory is at a high level in recent years, so the pattern of loose supply is difficult to change.
In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of the polyester industry is around 87%, and there are still not many new orders in the terminal textile industry. It is expected that there is insufficient room for improvement in the operating rate in the later stage. The continuous accumulation of inventory on the overall demand side has put market expectations in a cautious stage, and the downstream purchasing mentality is not good. Entering April, with the easing of inventory pressure in short fiber and polyester bottle factories, the comprehensive operating rate of polyester is expected to further increase, and it is expected that there will be a significant improvement in the demand side.
According to analysts from Shengyi Society, with the maintenance of some PTA plants and the recovery of downstream polyester market in April, the supply and demand fundamentals of PTA have slightly improved. However, the sustainability of demand remains to be observed, and it is expected that PTA prices will continue to rise weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic adipic acid market weakened in March, with an overall price drop of over 7%. On March 1st, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 8366 yuan/ton. On March 26th, the average price of adipic acid in the domestic market was 7766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.17% in price.

Negative leads to overall decline in adipic acid market in March

At the beginning of the month, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid continued to weaken, with sluggish demand in the terminal industry. The supply of adipic acid in the market was loose, and the shipping prices continued to decline. The market trading volume was average, and the sales were poor. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7750-8100 yuan/ton, with an overall decrease of 100-200 yuan/ton.

In the middle of the month, the market for pure benzene and cyclohexanone raw materials for adipic acid saw an increase in decline, resulting in poor terminal demand and continued supply pressure in the adipic acid market, leading to a significant price drop. The average market price of adipic acid has dropped to 7700 yuan/ton.

At the end of the month, the prices of raw materials pure benzene and cyclohexanone tended to stabilize, and terminal demand remained stable. The market price of adipic acid remained stable, with no fluctuations, and the average market price remained at 7700 yuan/ton.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in April, terminal demand may improve, supported by the raw material market, and the domestic adipic acid market may stop falling and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid market has maintained a high and stable operation recently. As of March 24th, the average price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China was 3325 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.7% from 2950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and an increase of 0.76% from 3300 yuan/ton in the same period last year, which is at a high level for the year.

In terms of raw material methanol: the overall loss of the device exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.

From the perspective of supply and demand: formic acid manufacturers maintain their current operating levels, and the average amount of spot goods in the market provides support for formic acid prices. On the demand side, downstream demand for formic acid has remained relatively stable with no significant increase in demand, and there is currently no favorable support for formic acid market prices on the demand side.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is positive support on the formic acid supply side, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is difficult to improve. It is expected that the formic acid market price will remain stable at a high level, and specific changes in market supply and demand still need to be monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 21, the price of 0 # zinc was 23840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the zinc price of 24100 yuan/ton on March 17.

This week’s market analysis

This week, spot zinc prices have fallen and stabilized, fluctuating within a high range.

Raw material end

With the resumption of production in mines that were previously shut down, the production of domestic zinc mines has achieved a significant increase compared to the previous period. This resumption of production has led to a sustained loose supply in the mining sector, and the supply of zinc ore in the market is gradually increasing. In order to repair the profit compression caused by tight supply in the early stage, refineries have started to continuously increase their processing fee (TC) quotations.

Supply and demand side

With the accelerated rise of TC on the supply side, refinery profits have been effectively repaired, production enthusiasm has significantly increased, and production has shown a steady growth trend.

From the demand side, the terminal consumer market continues to show a recovery trend, with varying levels of production in different industry sectors. Among them, galvanized enterprises have been affected by environmental policies that limit production, resulting in a decline in operating rates and certain production constraints. However, die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises have seen a slight increase in operating rates and production enthusiasm due to the improvement in terminal market demand, gradually releasing production capacity.

Inventory end

Zinc ingots continue to arrive in large quantities, and the market supply remains sufficient. Affected by the high zinc price, downstream enterprises are purchasing for essential needs. Inventory accumulation status.

comprehensive analysis

The recent trend of zinc prices has shown a strong tendency, with both the supply and demand sides of the market showing an increasing trend. In terms of supply, zinc ingots continue to arrive and the market supply remains sufficient; In terms of demand, although downstream demand has recovered to some extent, the recovery is relatively limited and has not fully matched the growth of supply. Inventory accumulation status, with significant pressure on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 6870 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it was 6780 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.31%.

The market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. The price of raw material acetone has fallen, and there is a lack of confidence in the isopropanol market within the market. The trading atmosphere is not good, and holders are offering discounts to sell. On site inquiries are cold, downstream demand is weak, and trading volume is limited. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 6600-6700 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 6900 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market has continued to decline this week. The national acetone market reported an average price of 6310 yuan/ton on March 7th, but on March 13th, the acetone market fell to 6135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.77%. During the week, with the arrival of imported and domestic trade cargo, the phenol ketone plant in Qingdao Bay resumed normal operation, and the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone plants increased. Manufacturers and traders faced pressure to ship, and market offers gradually declined.

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene market is declining. At the beginning of the week, the market was at 6920.75/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6845.75/ton, with a downward trend of 1.08%. At present, propylene manufacturers are slowing down their shipments, and downstream companies are adopting a wait-and-see approach, focusing on on-demand procurement. It is expected that propylene will remain stable, moderate, and weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyi Society believes that the current prices of acetone and propylene dual raw materials have fallen one after another, with insufficient cost support, affecting downstream market confidence. On exchange trading remains light, with a focus on wait-and-see measures. It is expected that in the short term, the isopropanol market will be mainly weakly consolidated, and more attention will be paid to changes in the raw material market.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of March 14th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4210 yuan/ton. Currently, the DMF market price is mainly stable, with overall market stability and small fluctuations.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF prices have remained stable. Currently, there is insufficient demand for DMF downstream, with downstream essential purchases being the main focus. The purchasing atmosphere is average, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. The spot delivery price for DMF in Shandong and surrounding areas is around 3900-4000 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas it is around 4200 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term, with insufficient driving force for price increases.

The phthalic anhydride market fell first and then rose this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the price of 7137.50 yuan/ton on March 1st; The price of phthalic anhydride has increased by 0.54% from March 9th to 6912.50 yuan/ton. The operating load of phthalic anhydride equipment is stable, and the inventory of phthalic anhydride is low; The operating load of plasticizer enterprises has increased, and downstream demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing, the maintenance of adjacent benzene units is delayed, the supply of adjacent benzene is sufficient, and the support for the rise of adjacent benzene still exists. The price of adjacent benzene is temporarily stable, and the cost of raw materials is temporarily stable. The downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices has weakened, and the upward support has increased.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

The maintenance of the Yangzi Petrochemical plant has been postponed to May. It is expected that the supply of ortho xylene will be relatively stable in March and April, and the export window will continue to open. Domestic ortho xylene spot supply will be stable, and ortho phthalic anhydride enterprises will start operating at high loads, resulting in stable ortho phthalic anhydride supply.

This week, the cost of raw materials such as benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the price of ortho xylene was 7300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on March 1st at 7300 yuan/ton. The expected maintenance of ortho benzene is ahead of schedule, the supply of ortho benzene is reduced, the price of ortho benzene is increasing, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing and rebounding; The price of industrial naphthalene is stabilizing, the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists.

Demand side: The DOP market has stopped falling and rebounded

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 10th, the DOP price was 8213.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.35% compared to the DOP price of 8326.25 yuan/ton on March 1st; The DOP price has increased by 0.92% from 8138.75 yuan/ton on March 9th. Plasticizer DOP enterprises resume production, demand for phthalic anhydride increases, inventory of phthalic anhydride decreases, and the upward momentum of phthalic anhydride increases.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of costs, the expected start of production for phthalic anhydride has decreased, the supply of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the support for the rise in o-xylene prices has increased, the price of industrial naphthalene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, with increased support for the rise in phthalic anhydride costs; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers has increased, and the support for the increase in demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. In the future, as costs rise and demand recovers, it is expected that the price of phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 3rd to 7th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8371 yuan/ton to 8285 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.02% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.53%, and a year-on-year drop of 12.12%. Although the industry’s capacity utilization rate is relatively low, it supports the supplier’s price mentality. However, the overall downstream load has declined, leading to a reduction in the amount of raw material digestion, and the transmission of industrial chain costs has been hindered, resulting in a strong bargaining sentiment towards raw materials. At the same time, new production capacity is expected to produce products, and holding manufacturers are offering discounts for shipments, resulting in a volatile downward trend in the market.

In terms of supply and equipment, both restarts and shutdowns are still in place, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate is still relatively low. And there will still be device maintenance in the later stage, supporting the supplier’s continued price mentality. The supply of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market still shows an upward trend, with a significant decrease in production and a strengthening of regional supply shortages. The domestic methanol market is operating strongly. As of 10:00 am on March 7th, the domestic methanol Taicang price was 2669 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide and methanol are relatively strong, and the cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTME has seen a decrease in the shutdown load of some units, while PBT production has increased. There has been no significant change in the capacity utilization rate of other downstream industries, but most industries continue to operate at a loss, maintaining a tight demand for raw materials through contract orders. Under a risk averse mentality, there is a lack of follow-up on spot goods and serious negotiations on prices. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the industry’s capacity utilization rate will still be relatively low, and suppliers will maintain a price mentality. The short-term market lacks significant support. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market is mainly weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of soda ash continued to rise this week. As of February 28th, the average market price of soda ash was 1498 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.49% compared to the soda ash price of 1420 yuan/ton on February 24th, and an increase of 0.27% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

The soda ash market has risen strongly this week. The on-site equipment is running smoothly, and the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity remains high. However, there have been continuous updates on equipment maintenance during the week, and there is a strong intention for suppliers to increase prices. The soda ash quotation continues to rise, and the downstream market is declining, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The on-site supplier support is strong, and the overall market is running strongly.

As of February 28th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1480-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price increase of 50-100 yuan/ton within the week; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1400-1500 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with a price increase of 70-80 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market first fell and then rose, showing a weak downward trend. From February 24th to 28th, glass prices fell from 16.30 yuan/square meter to 15.62 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 4.17%. The downstream glass market has seen an increase in production and normal inventory levels, while downstream demand is weak, market transactions are limited, glass inventory has accumulated, and market prices are weak.

In the future market forecast, there are maintenance plans for some domestic soda ash facilities, and the expected capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The market inventory may be reduced, and spot alkali factories are optimistic. The downstream market is weak, and they will follow up on demand when entering the market. The mentality of the market is game, and it is expected that soda ash will be operated in the short term, with specific attention paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market experienced a slight rebound in February after a unilateral decline. From February 1st to 28th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 5178 yuan/ton to 5275 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 16.10%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic MTBE market trend was weak after the holiday, and the demand for gasoline terminals was sluggish. Operators only purchased a small amount of related gasoline components on demand, and MTBE manufacturers’ shipments were cold, with prices mainly falling and consolidating. In the middle of the month, the domestic MTBE market showed some upward trend due to the export consolidation of some large manufacturers, resulting in relatively tight domestic resource supply. At the same time, transactions improved, end-users moderately purchased, and manufacturers’ shipments improved, actively pushing up offers. At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market prices rose strongly, and the inventory pressure of production enterprises was not high. Due to the impact of the price increase in the ethanol market in some regions, coupled with the continued strong operation of raw material corn prices, holders of goods had a strong mentality of supporting prices, and the focus of the domestic ethanol market steadily increased.

In terms of cost, the price of raw material corn is stable but slightly strong, and the cost side has provided some support for alcohol prices. With the boost of cost benefits, enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, Shandong Qufeng Factory has resumed shipments, and the overall spot supply on the supply side is abundant. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, Baijiu consumption support was flat; The operating rates of downstream methyl ethyl carbonate and ethyl acetate do not change significantly, and their consumption of ethanol remains stable; Other downstream chemical industries are accompanied by regular procurement, with a focus on stocking up for essential needs, resulting in limited demand boost. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

In the future market forecast, the overall spot prices on the supply side of the market are stable and consolidated, and the price of raw material corn is running strongly. With the support of favorable costs, enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. On the demand side, there is a lack of favorable conditions in the market, and terminal purchases are urgently needed, with transactions following the market trend. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will experience a strong short-term trend.