1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has declined this week. On February 27th, the average market price of caustic soda was 942 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 20.46% compared to last year. On February 26th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 846 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.57% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.47% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the caustic soda market has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 890-980 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). This week, the overall price of caustic soda has been weak, with downstream resistance and market inventory accumulation due to price increases. Downstream alumina is expected to observe the market trend and see that caustic soda prices will be weak.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak due to the accumulation of market inventory and average downstream demand. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since February, the overall hydrogen peroxide market has rebounded and steadily risen. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 683 yuan/ton. On February 25th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.85%.

Terminal demand increases, hydrogen peroxide market heats up in February

During the Spring Festival, most hydrogen peroxide manufacturers stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in hydrogen peroxide supply. After the holiday, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have restarted one after another, but the supply of hydrogen peroxide is still tight. The terminal stocking market is driving, and the hydrogen peroxide market is stable with a slight increase, overall relatively stable. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the domestic market is 600-780 yuan/ton, and the market fluctuation is relatively small.

In the middle of the month, some manufacturers’ hydrogen peroxide devices were still shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of hydrogen peroxide. The terminal printing and papermaking industry has average terminal demand, with sluggish supply and demand. The hydrogen peroxide market continues to weaken, with slight price adjustments.

At the end of the month, the rigid demand for terminal caprolactam and paper industry increased, and hydrogen peroxide manufacturers gradually raised their prices. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide rose to 723 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50-100 yuan/ton, and the market price increased by more than 5% compared to the beginning of the month.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that after March, the demand for hydrogen peroxide will gradually improve, and the market is expected to continue to rise.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the current price of activated carbon is 11956 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03% compared to last Tuesday’s price. A small number of domestic activated carbon manufacturers have increased their quotes, but most have remained stable. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and there has been an increase in inquiries in the activated carbon market. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and strengthen in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 14th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price rose from 5125 yuan/ton to 5167 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 18.46%. The price of edible ethanol in the domestic market is stable with some increase, and the price of raw material corn continues to be strong. The production cost of corn ethanol is under pressure, and the holders have a strong mentality of supporting prices and a strong focus.

In terms of cost, the price of raw material corn is stable but slightly strong, and the cost side has provided some support for alcohol prices. With the boost of cost benefits, enterprises have a strong mentality of supporting prices. The cost support of ethanol is still acceptable.

On the supply side, the Shandong factory has resumed shipments, and the overall spot supply on the supply side is abundant. There are unlikely to be major favorable factors in the supply of ethanol.

On the demand side, downstream demand is stable, with rigid procurement as the main focus, and a cautious and wait-and-see attitude; The main downstream of ethyl acetate has heard a slight increase in operating rate, which may lead to a slight increase in ethanol consumption or storage. The short-term impact of ethanol demand is expected to break through.

Market forecast, cost and demand game, downstream enterprises are watching the market with insufficient positive news, and terminal procurement is mainly for essential needs. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China rose this week (2.1-2.14), with an average market price of 247210 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 261450 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 5.76%.

The current industrial demand remains stable, coupled with the upcoming Chinese People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the expectation of favorable policies has boosted market confidence, and the A-share market has ushered in a red envelope market, with overall macro sentiment trending towards optimism. In this context, the processing fee for tin concentrate remains low and stable, and the supply of ore is still tight, especially in the Wa region where tin ore has not yet resumed production, further exacerbating the tight supply situation. As a result, tin prices successfully broke through the previous volatile range and climbed to a high of 260000 yuan.

Fundamentally, as one of the world’s important tin ore suppliers, Myanmar’s tin ore supply expectations have a significant impact on the global tin price trend. Especially in the Wa State region of Myanmar, as the main production area of tin ore in Myanmar, the uncertainty of its resumption time has always been a focus of market attention. As of now, the Wa State of Myanmar has not provided a clear plan for the specific resumption time, which has led to further delays in market expectations for the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar. Due to the high proportion of tin ore imported from Wa State in China, the delay in resuming production has further exacerbated market concerns about the tight supply of tin ore.

On the supply and demand side, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, most downstream enterprises resume work and production one after another on the ninth day of the first lunar month. However, due to the high level of tin prices after the holiday, the actual downstream market’s ability to absorb them is not strong. Faced with high tin prices, most soldering companies have adopted a cautious strategy, mainly consuming pre holiday inventory and adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The overall market consumption performance is weak, and downstream enterprises are cautious about new procurement plans, waiting for further clarification of the market situation.

In summary, given the uncertain resumption time of tin mining in Wa State and the existence of certain expected differences in the market, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend in the short term.

Spot resources in Shandong and North China are tight, with prices continuously rising and weekend gains not stopping. According to data from Shengyi Society, the price of Jingbo asphalt in Shandong Province was 3770 yuan/ton on February 17th.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the North China region is experiencing rapid growth, but the release of demand is not yet evident. However, due to factors such as high costs and coking substitution demand, the intention of refineries to release asphalt resources at low prices is not strong, and some psychological barriers have risen to around 3800 yuan/ton. Compared to the relatively stable supply in the southern region, there is also a need for regional arbitrage. However, the trading of high priced transportation resources is limited, and the frequent generation of warehouse receipts in the southern region also puts some pressure on the market. Overall, the short-term trend of asphalt spot trading is mainly strong, and there will be strong resistance at the 4000 yuan/ton mark.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11933 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11950/ton, with a price increase of 0.14%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have seen some price increases this week, but most have remained stable. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, and there has been an increase in market inquiries. Industry insiders are mostly observing and focusing on market transactions.

The shipment of coconut shell charcoal for applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges has accelerated, especially for gold charcoal, which has received more inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, so pay more attention to the transaction situation.

Prediction: There is an increase in inquiries in the activated carbon market, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.