According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market saw a slight increase from December 30 to January 6, 2024. On December 30th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6050 yuan/ton, and on January 6th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5%. This week, the overall trend of the toluene market remained stable with a slight increase, while the overall trend of crude oil remained stable with a slight increase, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. The purchasing enthusiasm of diversified enterprises in Shandong region is still relatively good, and the overall demand for oil blending is weak. At present, the overall supply is stable but slightly tight, and the ex factory prices of refineries in Shandong have slightly increased. The atmosphere in the spot market is good.

On the cost side: During this cycle, crude oil prices have slightly increased. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction agreement has been extended until the end of the first quarter, and some oil producing countries are still implementing compensatory production cuts. This has provided favorable support for crude oil supply, leading to an increase in crude oil market prices. On the other hand, the instability of the situation in the Middle East still exists, which is good news for the international oil market. Overall, the rate of change in crude oil during the cycle remains positive. As of January 3rd, international crude oil futures rose and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.96 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $76.51 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, and the company is currently operating normally. The production of the equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of January 6th, East China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6150 yuan/ton.

On the demand side, the external market for xylene has slightly rebounded, and demand support is still acceptable

On January 6th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7100 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on December 30th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of January 3rd, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 819-821 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 844-846 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of 24 US dollars/ton compared to December 30th.

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The demand side has shown decent performance recently, with Shandong performing well and other regions showing overall stability. Recently, the inventory of ports in East China has slightly increased on the supply side. It is expected that the toluene market will operate steadily, moderately, and strongly in the short term under the boost of demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of ethyl acetate slightly decreased on December 31st, with a factory price of 5746.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% compared to the previous trading day. The cost support is still acceptable, with downstream demand as the main factor. The mentality of supplier enterprises is poor, and the price of ethyl acetate has been adjusted downward.

Market analysis: Ethyl acetate has experienced a narrow downward trend. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid is stable but slightly strong, with good cost support; On the demand side, downstream enthusiasm is not high, following up on market entry as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is average; Some factories have a poor mentality and limited shipments, resulting in a slight decrease in the price of ethyl ester based on inventory.

In the future, the market for ethyl acetate raw materials is relatively strong, with strong upward momentum. The supply side and manufacturers have different shipments, and sales pressure still exists. The downstream mentality is wait-and-see, and demand for purchasing is weak, resulting in a market supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate will remain stable and operate after the holiday. Specific attention should be paid to changes in the upstream market and downstream follow-up.

Recently (12.23-12.31), the market price of Shunding rubber has slightly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 13720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from 13860 yuan/ton on December 23. The price of raw material butadiene has been adjusted narrowly, and the cost of butadiene rubber still has support; The production of butadiene rubber remains at a high level of nearly 80%, and the pressure on the supply side has increased; Downstream tire production is steadily consolidating. Recently, the supply prices of Shunding rubber suppliers have been lowered, and the quotes from merchants have been slightly adjusted. As of December 31, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze regions in East China were 13650-13850 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.23-12.31), the price of butadiene has slightly adjusted, and the cost of butadiene rubber is supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 31, the price of butadiene was 10800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% from 10837 yuan/ton on December 23, with a peak of 10862 yuan/ton during the cycle.

Recently (12.23-12.31), there has been a slight fluctuation in the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants, with overall construction around 7.7%.

Demand side: Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of December 27th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.20% of the load.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will slightly adjust, and the cost of butadiene rubber will be supported; Recently, downstream construction has been stable with slight adjustments, providing support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber; However, the production of butadiene rubber has remained close to 80%, putting pressure on the supp

ly side. Overall, the butadiene rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term.