Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data of Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market fluctuated at the end of December, and some spot prices of certain brands were consolidating and operating. As of December 30th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16516.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 3.99% compared to early December.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: At the end of December, domestic PC aggregation enterprises had less maintenance and resumption of work, and the overall change in load was limited. The operating level was around 78%, which was the same as before. The weekly output remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons. The on-site supply of goods is still abundant, and the mismatch between supply and demand remains unchanged. The high inventory has led to cautious pricing by manufacturers, and the auction market has opened high and fallen low. The market supply side is generally supportive of PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that due to the rebound of bisphenol A market, prices have recently experienced stagflation. The delay in the production of the new device and the expansion of maintenance in the middle of the month have gradually exhausted the positive effects. As for the raw material phenol, the terminal market buying enthusiasm is not high, and the demand delivery is low. The pressure on traders to ship is not high, and there is a stable price sentiment. However, due to poor stock flow and profit sharing operations, the trading follow-up is average. At the same time, the main downstream PC and epoxy resin stocks of bisphenol A are stable, which hinders the upward trend of bisphenol A prices and flattens the support for PC costs.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not improved for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak in the previous period. The logic of weak rigid demand purchasing in the market continues, and the wait-and-see sentiment of industry players is biased. As the end of the year approaches, downstream factories are taking over goods to maintain production, and buyers are resistant to high priced sources of goods, so they are cautious in purchasing and chasing price increases. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

At the end of December, the PC market was mainly sorted out. Upstream bisphenol A market stagflation consolidation maintains support for PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has basically leveled off, and the supply remains loose and unchanged. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. The downstream stocking pattern has not changed, making it difficult to drive market trends. Business Society believes that the positive news for raw materials is gradually dissipating, the holiday market is becoming stronger, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has plans to increase its load. It is expected that there will be downward pressure on the PC market in the future, and the market may turn weak and consolidate.

This week, the epoxy propane market is mainly consolidating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 27th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8402.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.47% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: With the gradual restart of enterprise facilities, the production of epichlorohydrin has increased. At present, the estimated production for December is 484100 tons, with an increase of only 12600 tons compared to November.

Raw material end: narrow width finishing of propylene is the main focus. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6823.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.33% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: Downstream demand sentiment is relatively cold, procurement follow-up is insufficient, market actual order trading is cold, and first-time purchases are the main focus, with a cautious and wait-and-see attitude.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that with the restart and recovery of enterprise equipment, the production of epoxy propane has increased. Downstream demand side purchases are cautious and lack follow-up, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, formic acid has been continuously rising since the fourth quarter. As of December 23, 85% of industrial formic acid in China was 2950 yuan/ton, up 10.28% from 2675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Raw material side: The price of raw material methanol has been fluctuating at a high level recently. It is expected that the utilization rate and output of methanol production capacity will increase in the short term, and the supply of domestic goods will continue to be abundant. The number of foreign ships arriving at ports will gradually decrease, and the arrival of goods will still be mainly from terminal factories. Inventory will continue to be depleted. It is expected that the methanol market price will remain stable and weaken, and there will be no positive support for the formic acid market price.

Supply and demand side: Domestic formic acid plants are operating normally, with production levels generally maintaining above average. There is no significant shortage or tension in the supply side, and the driving effect on formic acid market prices is limited. Insufficient follow-up on downstream demand for formic acid, weak willingness to purchase formic acid, and restricted shipment by cargo holders.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently sufficient supply of formic acid, and there is no obvious purchasing intention downstream. It is expected that formic acid prices will fluctuate in the short term, and specific market information still needs to be monitored.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running steadily this week. As of December 20th, the average market price of soda ash was 1538 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of soda ash on December 14th at 1538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the soda ash market is mainly stable. On the supply side, there are devices parked for maintenance on site, resulting in a decrease in the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity. However, the overall supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, downstream demand is weak, market entry enthusiasm is not high, market transactions are limited, and there is insufficient support for upstream, leading to some suppression of soda ash price increases. The soda ash market is operating steadily and observing the situation.

As of December 20th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1450-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with prices remaining stable throughout the week; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1380-1550 yuan/ton for light soda ash, with prices remaining stable throughout the week.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market is running strongly. From December 14th to 20th, the price of glass increased from 16.20 yuan/square meter to 16.40 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.23%. The operating rate of the glass market has not changed much, downstream market entry is more active, manufacturers’ overall shipments are smooth, market destocking is obvious, and the mentality of industry players is optimistic. Glass prices continue to rise.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity is relatively high, and there is sufficient inventory in spot alkali factories. Sales pressure still exists for enterprises. Although the downstream glass market has risen, the main consumption of inventory is limited, and the demand for soda ash market is limited. Under the situation of oversupply in the market, it is expected that soda ash will remain stable and wait for further updates on downstream demand in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated and rose from December 9 to December 16, 2024. On December 9th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5910 yuan/ton, up 2.03% from 6030 yuan/ton on December 16th. This week, the xylene market fluctuated upwards, and in the later part of the week, with the strengthening of crude oil prices, the atmosphere in the spot market improved. Refineries in Shandong region raised their ex factory prices, downstream stocks were replenished according to demand, and some transactions were made in the market, boosting the mentality of the spot market. The inventory of ports in East China continues to decline, and the supply expectations in the spot market are relatively tight. With the support of favorable factors, the mixed xylene market as a whole rose this week. However, there is a lack of actual demand support in the future, and there is significant resistance to the market’s continued upward trend.

On the cost side: On the one hand, the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, and the United States has announced a new round of sanctions against Russia. In addition, OPEC+may extend its production reduction plan again at the December meeting, and it may be postponed until the second quarter of next year, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, weak demand in China, India, and other regions has led to continued concerns in the market about demand, which is bearish for the oil market. At present, the bearish factors in the crude oil market are intertwined, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. The production reduction plans of oil producing countries may be extended, and overall, international crude oil may maintain a volatile trend. As of December 12th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.02 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.41 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec xylene quotation summary. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of December 16th, East China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6100-6150 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Weak and stable operation of the xylene market with weak demand support

On December 16th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7150 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and sold normally, remaining unchanged from the price on December 9th. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 13th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $780-782/ton FOB Korea and $809-811/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: The crude oil market trend is volatile, with limited guidance for the spot market. Recently, the market supply has been tight, and the atmosphere in the spot market is good. Downstream replenishment is needed to support overall rigid demand. Overall, there are still favorable supply and demand conditions, and it is expected that the market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3678.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3678.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 2.90%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the shortage of supply combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease in temperature, the supply of fluorite has decreased. This week, the fluorite.

Demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, and the refrigerant market is still acceptable

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has declined this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton recently. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid has declined to more than 50%. In December, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, but the refrigerant production situation has declined, and there has been a continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the foreign trade market prices are still acceptable, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market has experienced a decline in production, which has led to a suppression of the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream refrigerant industry has experienced a decline in production, coupled with low prices of hydrofluoric acid, overall demand is not looking good. Overall, the trend of the domestic fluorite market is mainly stagnant.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11683 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11733/ton, with a price increase of 0.43%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have risen this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The speed of market demand has accelerated, and industry insiders are optimistic about the future and paying close attention to market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: There is an increase in inquiries in the activated carbon market, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate with a strong trend in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, since November 1st, the domestic adipic acid market has experienced a weak decline, with a drop of over 1%. On November 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8666 yuan/ton. On November 29th, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23%.

Negative led to weak downward trend of adipic acid market in November

Since November, the domestic adipic acid market has remained weak and steadily declining. Mainly due to the weak rebound of the upstream raw material pure benzene market, insufficient driving force for the rise of cyclohexanone market, average cost support, and a decrease in terminal demand for adipic acid procurement. The supply pressure of adipic acid is suppressing, and multiple negative factors dominate. The adipic acid market continues to bottom out, weak and declining. The mainstream market price is 8200-8300 yuan/ton, and the market is steadily declining.

An analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in December, the raw material pure benzene market weakened, and the bearish trend still exists. The rise of adipic acid market is weak, and the downward trend is the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market first fell and then rose in November 2024. From November 1st to 29th, the domestic xylene market price dropped from 5920 yuan/ton to 5910 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 0.17% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the xylene market fluctuated downward this cycle, and the overall supply of xylene in the market was relatively loose. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, and the market as a whole remained cautious.

In the second half of the month, the xylene market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations this week, with downstream demand for replenishing some essential inventory, leading to an improvement in the atmosphere of negotiations in the spot market. The overall market rebounded slightly this week, but the extent was limited.

On the cost side: International crude oil maintained a range bound fluctuation trend this cycle, with a wide decline in oil prices by the end of the month. On November 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.94 per barrel, a decrease of $2.30 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.16 or 2.9% The crude oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant drop in oil prices this time is due to the short-term geopolitical risk reduction caused by the ceasefire news. In the later stage, the trend may still return to the supply and demand fundamentals, as the turmoil in the Middle East has not had a greater impact on crude oil supply than expected by the market. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy will continue to play a regulatory role in oil prices. Considering the current low level of oil prices, it is expected that crude oil will not have a significant downward momentum in the short term, but the market should also be cautious about the risks brought by short-term adjustments.

Supply side: The quotation of Sinopec xylene enterprise has not changed much. Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 28th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5950-6050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5800 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On November 29th, the price of xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7300 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities operated stably, with normal sales, and remained the same as the price on October 31st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 28th, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 779-781 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 804-806 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 25 US dollars/ton compared to 829-831 US dollars/ton at the end of October.

Market forecast: The crude oil market has been fluctuating recently, with limited impact on the market. In terms of supply, the overall inventory of refineries in Shandong region has been low recently, and the inventory of ports in East China region is also low, resulting in a stable but tight market supply. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Recently, PX futures have weakened in the external market, and the market atmosphere is relatively weak. Overall, there are still bearish factors in the spot market in the near future, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term due to the lack of demand support.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic PVC spot market fell last month in November. As of November 29th, the average price of PVC in China was 5130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.95% for the whole month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the PVC spot market has shown weak performance, with prices continuously fluctuating and falling. On the one hand, it is under negative pressure from upstream crude oil, coupled with the continuous decline in the futures market. Guided by the futures market, the PVC spot market generally follows the trend of decline. On the other hand, there is a certain pressure on supply and demand, and the spot market has not yet escaped the downward channel. Although there was a slight rebound trend in the market at the beginning of the second week, it was mainly due to short-term enterprise load reduction and price raising intentions, as well as speculative behavior by traders. However, the market continued to decline from mid month to the end of the month. At present, there is no signal of bottoming out and stabilizing in the market. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of November 29th, the mainstream price range of PVC SG5 electrical aggregate in China is mostly around 4970-5200 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since November, the price of calcium carbide has stopped rising and mainly operated at a high level. According to data monitored by Business Society, the price increase of calcium carbide since November has been zero. Overall, the price increase in the calcium carbide market during the week was weak, with limited support, and with downstream PVC falling back into a slump, the price of calcium carbide may also experience fluctuations.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the weak balance between PVC supply and demand is the main factor, and the operating rate of manufacturers remains high. Both enterprise inventory and market inventory are high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in December, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.