1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices rose in October. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 833 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 1037 yuan/ton, with an overall price increase of 24.49% and a price increase of 26.16% compared to the same period last year. On October 31st, the chemical index was 843 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.79% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 40.97% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable.

Since October, with the support of equipment maintenance and load reduction in the early stage of the East China region, the spot price of liquid alkali in the East China region has risen. From the perspective of enterprise inventory, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low. Downstream demand is expected to see a stable, medium to strong trend in domestic alumina prices in the short term, with good demand for caustic soda, driving up caustic soda prices. However, with the rise in prices, the non aluminum industry has a resistance to the price of caustic soda, and the price of caustic soda tends to consolidate.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 43rd week of 2024 (10.21-10.25), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 1 product that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen include caustic soda (5.05%), caustic soda flakes (4.25%), and calcium carbide (1.16%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are PVC (-0.79%) and baking soda (-0.75%). The average increase or decrease this week is 1.49%.

Business analysts believe that caustic soda prices have been consolidating recently. At present, the inventory of caustic soda plants is low, and there are expectations of maintenance and load reduction in some areas, resulting in relatively firm prices. The downstream demand for alumina is good, which provides some support for the price of caustic soda. Overall, it is expected to operate steadily in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week (October 27-31, 2024), costs remained weak and stable, demand was light, and multiple parties held onto essential orders. The trading atmosphere on the market was average, and the overall market performance was weak. The price of nylon fiber continued to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline this week (October 27-31, 2024). As of October 31, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton or 1.71% from last week’s price; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan/ton or 2.48% compared to last week. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is reported at 18200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan/ton or 2.02% from last week’s price.

Weakness sorting of raw materials

This week (October 27-31, 2024), in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, inventory pressure remains high, supply side is still under pressure, spot prices are weakly stable, market sentiment is bearish, and the industry chain is mostly pessimistic. As of October 31, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society is 11202 yuan/ton, which is at a low point of the year.

Supply demand

This week (October 27-31, 2024), the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production of nylon filament market is running at around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in October did not meet expectations, and the “Silver Ten” event did not occur. Terminal demand did not show significant improvement, and the situation of textile market orders was not optimistic. Daily production mainly consumed inventory, and the willingness to continue hoarding was poor. Demand follow-up was very limited, and market confidence was clearly insufficient.

Future forecast

The downstream market demand has not improved and still relies mainly on on-demand procurement; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. There is no significant positive boost in the market, and pessimistic sentiment is widespread in the market. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly.