1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4110 yuan/ton. In November, the DMF market price showed a downward trend in a stepped manner, and the price continued to decline. Currently, there is a clear problem of oversupply in the DMF market, and the market supply is surplus. The operating rate of the DMF market is not high, only maintaining around 40%, mainly due to the impact of the continuous downturn in the market and the continuous compression of profits.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost: The overall methanol market in November was in a stable to strong trend, and the main reason for the high methanol prices was the reduction in overseas operating rates. Overseas production is in a stage of reduction, and inventory is running at a low level, which helps to reduce domestic methanol inventory consumption. From October to November, methanol enters the destocking season, and the winter is cold, with many methanol plants shutting down successively. However, the current supply is still relatively sufficient, but the upstream strong trend has little impact on DMF, and the positive support in terms of cost is not very obvious.

Operating rate: Currently, the overall operating rate of the DMF market is not high, and the profits of DMF factories are constantly compressed, and the overall market is in a state of loss. Currently, enterprise quotations are basically fluctuating above and below the cost line. There are many maintenance devices in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate is around 40%. After May, DMF began to decline and entered the off-season of the industry, with individual prices breaking through 4000 yuan/ton. In September, the price briefly rebounded, and then entered a continuous downward trend. Some factories have meager profits to support it. In November, DMF prices fell down, downstream demand was insufficient, and market prices continued to fall.

In terms of production capacity: Since 2021, the domestic DMF production capacity has shown a continuous expansion, increasing from 910000 tons to 1.77 million tons in 2024 over a period of three years, with an increase of more than 90%. The rapid increase in production capacity has led to a sustained loose supply in the market, with oversupply and obvious overcapacity. Currently, downstream follow-up is slow, inventory is running at a high level, and the current supply-demand imbalance is obvious, resulting in a continuous decline in DMF prices, falling to a new low in nearly three years.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market currently lacks effective positive support, with limited upward momentum. Factories mainly offer discounts and take orders, resulting in low profits to maintain operation. There is also some cost pressure, and it is expected that the DMF market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with mainstream prices around 4000 yuan per ton.

Ethylene glycol prices fall in November

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4591.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from the average price of 4630 yuan/ton on November 1st.

On November 27, 2024, the operating price of the port ethylene glycol spot contract was between 4620-4650 yuan/ton. The basis of the port ethylene glycol spot contract remained stable during the day, with early opening spot prices ranging from+47 to+50 for this week’s contract basis. The intraday basis slightly decreased with little fluctuation, with midday basis prices ranging from+46 to+48 for this week, next week’s basis prices ranging from 45 to+47, and December’s basis prices ranging from+55 to+58.

After the market rose, there was an increase in spot contract shippers, and receiving traders were cautious and afraid of high prices. They did not receive many goods, and market trading was relatively weak.

On November 27th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4220 to 4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On November 26, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $537/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $546/ton.

Domestic supply increases

Domestic supply has increased month on month, and in terms of operating rate, the total operating rate of ethylene glycol in China on November 27th was 67.65% (up 0.12%), with an integrated rate of 68.85% (basically stable); Coal chemical industry increased by 65.49% (up 0.33%), while Tianye saw a decline. The domestic synthesis gas to ethylene glycol production load is gradually recovering, and due to the weakening demand for ethylene oxide, some non coal production units have switched from producing ethylene oxide to producing ethylene glycol.

Device dynamics: A 300000 ton/year synthesis gas to ethylene glycol plant in Shanxi has recently restarted and discharged, and will temporarily maintain single line operation. The plant started shutdown and maintenance at the end of October.

Weak domestic downstream demand expectations

The downstream polyester load is relatively high, and the filament maintains a high operating load, with little room for further improvement. The loading and weaving loads are weakening. Terminal autumn and winter orders have still fallen short of expectations in the near future, with expectations of a weakened polyester load in December.

Expected rebound in ethylene glycol inventory

The explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol at the port is still relatively low, but there is an expectation of an increase in recent arrivals. There is a strong expectation that ethylene glycol will gradually enter the trend of accumulating inventory in December.

Future expectations

The weak domestic supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol have suppressed the upward potential of ethylene glycol prices. From a cost perspective, crude oil prices have been at a low level recently, and the support from the cost side is relatively insufficient. At present, although there is an expected increase in explicit inventory at the port, the absolute data is relatively low, which to some extent supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the short term, the fluctuation of ethylene glycol prices is mainly weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, lithium carbonate fluctuated at a low level in November. As of November 26th, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in China was 78600 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% from 76800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month,; Battery grade lithium carbonate is priced at 81200 yuan/ton, up 2.27% from 79400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Lithium prices plummet, Australian lithium mines shut down or reduce operations

On November 13th, Mineral Resources Australia announced that after a strategic review, due to the long-term low price of spodumene concentrate, its lithium mining project Bald Hill will begin maintenance and upkeep from this week. Mining and mobile maintenance operations will cease from that day onwards, and the spodumene concentrate plant and accommodation village plan to suspend operations in early December 2024. Based on this change, the final batch of Bald Hill spodumene concentrate is expected to be sold in December, and the estimated shipment volume for fiscal year 2025 will be reduced from the previous 120000 to 145000 dry tons to 60000 dry tons.

On November 11th, Liontown, another lithium mining giant in Australia, announced a production reduction plan, lowering its ore production target for the end of fiscal year 2027 from 3 million tons per year to 2.8 million tons per year. It is expected to start mining ore in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 25.

Several Australian mines have previously announced production cuts or shutdowns

Starting from December 1st, the Ngungaju factory will be put under maintenance and the lithium concentrate production for the 2025 fiscal year will be reduced to 700000 to 740000 tons.

Amid the sustained low lithium prices, lithium mines in Australia have entered a state of large-scale production stoppage and reduction this year. Australia is currently the largest source of global lithium resource supply and also the largest source of lithium ore imports for China. According to data, Australian lithium mines account for 47% and 55% of global and Chinese lithium raw material supply, respectively.

The recent suspension of production has also affected the domestic price of lithium carbonate. Lithium carbonate, which has been continuously declining for nearly half a year, has recently experienced a fluctuating rebound, but the rebound is limited, fluctuating around 80000 yuan.

In terms of cost structure, the decline in lithium carbonate prices will lead to a bottoming out of lithium mica, spodumene, and salt lake lithium extraction costs. However, in the domestic market, lithium mica manufacturers with relatively high taste and mature smelting capabilities can reduce the cost of lithium carbonate to a level of 70000-80000 yuan/ton. If further reduction in production of Australian mineral spodumene leads to price increases, its production capacity may be supplemented by lithium mica.

Taking into account various factors, as the main source of domestic lithium carbonate supply, Australian mines have a significant impact on their production capacity supply. However, the spillover of production capacity structure caused by the rise in lithium prices will suppress the room for lithium price increase, and the possibility of a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices in the future is still limited.

This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 25th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6862.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.26% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride at 6950 yuan/ton on November 18th. The phthalic anhydride equipment is operating at a high level and stable, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride; The price of ortho benzene is stabilizing, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, the price of industrial naphthalene is fluctuating and falling, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is weakening. Due to oversupply and insufficient cost support, the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

This week, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants has been stable, with about 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers starting production. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers is stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene is temporarily stable

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 25th, the price of ortho benzene was 6900 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho benzene at 6900 yuan/ton on November 18th. This week, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has stabilized, and the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has temporarily stabilized, reducing the downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: The DOP market has fluctuated and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 25th, the DOP price was 9263.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.63% compared to the DOP price of 9513.75 yuan/ton on November 15th. In the off-season of the market, the demand for plasticizer DOP is weak, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and falls. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has decreased, and plasticizer manufacturers have weak demand for phthalic anhydride. The support for phthalic anhydride demand has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride has increased.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable, while the cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing; In terms of demand, the operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and downstream support for phthalic anhydride has weakened. Overall, costs are temporarily stable, demand is cold, and it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will weaken and decline in the future.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable this week. As of November 22, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11975.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (11350.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of raw material fluorite has risen this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Business Society, the price trend of domestic fluorite has risen this week. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3675 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% from the beginning of the week price of 3668.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.68%.

Demand side: The downstream refrigerant market has seen an upward trend, with continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical companies within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. Some models of devices are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. Overall, the market’s consumption of raw materials is still limited. Affected by this, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid remains high and stable.

Market forecast: In the near future, the supply of hydrofluoric acid will be tight, and some models of equipment are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. The market price of raw materials has risen, and downstream procurement is mainly based on demand. We adopt a wait-and-see and cautious attitude towards high priced raw material procurement. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will remain stable in the later period.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: The average market price on November 19th was 7286.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.16% compared to the previous trading day.

Analysis: The rise in international crude oil futures has driven up the night trading of pure benzene, strengthening confidence in the pure benzene market. Today, the atmosphere in the domestic pure benzene market is good, with active market inquiries and rising prices on the market. At present, the inventory of local refineries in Shandong is at a low level, with good on-site transactions and continuous smooth shipments from refineries. The inventory of pure benzene in the East China port has accumulated, but the mentality of traders waiting for inventory to rise has increased. Factories are actively purchasing for essential needs, and shipments from the main ports in East China are smooth, with good market transactions. It is expected that prices will strengthen and consolidate in the short term.

The focus of the domestic acetone market has shifted upwards. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported a price of 5750 yuan/ton since November 18th, and the negotiated price reference in the South China market is between 5800-5850 yuan/ton.

At the beginning of the week, the port inventory dropped to 28500 tons, and some terminal factories tendered for replenishment. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the mentality of traders was boosted, resulting in an upward shift in offers. It is expected that the acetone market price in East China will be between 5700-5750 yuan/ton today.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on November 18th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 5750./ 50

Shandong region/ 5950./ 50

Yanshan region/ 5950./ 50

South China region/ 5850./ 50

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3668.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.73% from the beginning of the week price of 3606.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.84%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market continues to rise this week.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices temporarily stable, refrigerant market rises

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton recently. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In November, hydrofluoric acid manufacturers raised their prices, which boosted the trend of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a continuous increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has risen. Overall, the domestic fluorite market still has an upward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the average price of acetic acid was 2770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton or 2.81% compared to the price of 2850 yuan/ton on November 1st.

The acetic acid market continued to decline in November, with companies continuously lowering their quotes. On the supply side, there is little change in the acetic acid plant on site, and the inventory of the enterprise continues to accumulate. The mentality of the operators is weak, and the shipping sentiment is strong; On the downstream side, the terminal market trading is weak, the downstream market is weak, the demand performance is insufficient, the market trading is weak, and there are significant bearish factors in the market, resulting in a weak downward trend in acetic acid prices.

As of November 11th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ November 1st/ November 11th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2675 yuan/ton/ -100

North China region/ 2775 yuan/ton/ 2660 yuan/ton/ -115

Shandong region/ 2750 yuan/ton/ 2670 yuan/ton/ -80

Jiangsu region/ 2600 yuan/ton/ 2500 yuan/ton/ -100

Zhejiang region/ 2700 yuan/ton/ 2600 yuan/ton/ -100

The upstream methanol market fluctuates within a certain range. From November 1st to 11th, the average price in the domestic market decreased from 2475.00 yuan/ton to 2464.17 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 0.44%. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, market buying power is weak, the futures market lacks sufficient boost, and the momentum for methanol spot price increase is weak. At the same time, the recent increase in shipping costs has led to a weak operation of methanol prices.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. On November 11th, the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride was 5052.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared to the price of 5102.50 yuan/ton on November 1st. The upstream acetic acid market continues to decline, the cost of acetic anhydride is bearish, downstream entry enthusiasm is not high, market orders are limited, and the mentality of operators is poor, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride prices.

Market forecast: Business Society’s acetic acid analyst believes that the acetic acid plant is operating normally, the market supply is sufficient, and there is significant pressure on companies to ship; Downstream and traders have weak purchasing power, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and the supply on the market is strong while demand is weak. It is expected that the acetic acid market will remain weak and stable in the short term, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the DOP price was 9238.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 1.51% compared to the DOP price of 9101.25 yuan/ton on November 1st. The demand for plasticizer DOP has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen. Plasticizer companies are operating steadily at a high level, but the off-season for downstream PVC demand is approaching. The demand for plasticizers is falling, and the price of plasticizer DOP is falling at a high level.

Downstream demand declines

Entering the second half of the year, downstream PVC product companies are gradually experiencing a decline in production. As we enter November, the market is in its off-season, and downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns colder, demand is weakening; The downstream market has fallen, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Raw material costs fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 8th, the price of isooctanol was 9266.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.58% compared to the price of 9033.33 yuan/ton on November 1st. In November, the demand for isooctanol rebounded, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply and demand of isooctanol have increased, and the market support for isooctanol still exists. The price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. The cost of plasticizers has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has stabilized after rising, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, raw material prices will stabilize and plasticizer costs will stabilize; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations have decreased. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and consolidate in the future.