According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic TDI market was in a stalemate in October. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 13050 yuan/ton, and on October 30th, the TDI price was 13100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 25.99%.

The performance of the domestic TDI market in October was average, with a sluggish peak season and weak price increases. The TDI market in October was greatly affected by the demand side, and downstream demand was weak. In order to stimulate sales, prices were prone to decline but difficult to rise, and the focus of transactions slightly loosened. The overall market trading is cautious, and the mentality of industry players is poor, with prices fluctuating slightly around 13000 yuan/ton.

The upstream toluene market first rose and then fell. As of October 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 5888 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% from the price of 5890 yuan/ton on October 1st. Driven by the continuous rise in the external market during the month, the toluene market made up for the post holiday gains. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, leading to an increase in market supply. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in October, the overall volatility of the TDI market was limited due to the constraints of raw materials and limited demand boost. Transactions remained light, and the Silver October market ended flat. It is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term, and specific attention should be paid to downstream purchasing follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market first rose and then fell in October. As of October 29th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7318 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90% from the beginning of the month.

In the first half of the year, the short fiber market was boosted by rising costs and favorable policies. During the National Day holiday, the Middle East issue escalated, causing concerns about affecting local crude oil supply and boosting crude oil prices. In addition, whether it is interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts to increase liquidity, or real estate policies to boost market confidence, they have a sustained upward effect on the commodity market. But with the weak adjustment of cost, insufficient cost support, and the demand for terminal consumption and essential procurement, the price of polyester staple fiber has slightly declined.

Looking at the future, on the cost side, Israel’s actions are currently limited and restrained, and market concerns about crude oil supply have decreased. International crude oil has opened low and gone low, weakening support for PTA costs. As of October 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $67.38 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $71.00 per barrel. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts are the main reason, and the seasonal off-season demand in the United States is weak. Coupled with the possibility of Saudi Arabia increasing production in the future, oil prices will mainly operate weakly.

This month, the domestic PTA market first rose and then fell, and the decline slowed down after mid month. As of October 29th, the average market price in East China was 4881 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95% from the beginning of the month. Only one 1.2 million ton plant in the northwest is planned to restart in early November. The PTA processing fee is still acceptable, but there is currently no PTA plant maintenance. PTA production capacity remains around 88%, and most enterprises have low intentions for plant maintenance. There are rumors that some long-term shutdown plants may restart. PTA production capacity operation rate will continue to operate at a high level, and spot supply is abundant.

The operating rate of downstream terminal weaving machines will weaken in early November, and the demand peak season will shift to the off-season. There will be no significant increase in orders, and the main focus will be on essential procurement. The supply of short fibers remains sufficient and is about to enter a new settlement cycle. The liquidity of spot goods tends to be loose. Considering the expected production of Yida’s new equipment on the supply side, the overall pressure of oversupply is difficult to alleviate.

Business analysts believe that there are many bearish factors in crude oil fundamentals, and PTA companies have a lower intention to carry out equipment maintenance. The seasonal peak season for consumption is coming to an end, and the downstream spinning industry is mainly experiencing a decline in production, resulting in a lack of favorable supply and demand. The basic highlights of polyester staple fiber are limited, and it is expected that PTA prices will remain weak and fluctuate in November.

On October 28th, the average market price of industrial grade anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in China was 10891 yuan/ton upon arrival at the factory, unchanged from the previous working day. At present, the mainstream to factory price of industrial grade anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in the domestic market is concentrated at 10450-11300 yuan/ton. Recently, there has been an increase in raw material prices, and the cost side is still under pressure. The market supply is scarce, and it is expected that prices will rise significantly at the beginning of next month.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and stabilized

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9226.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 0.14% compared to the DOP price of 9213.75 yuan/ton on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a 2.64% increase. The price of isooctanol is fluctuating and stabilizing, DOP costs are temporarily stable, DOP manufacturers have orders for sales, downstream demand and procurement are generally active, DOP manufacturers have stable high production levels, DOP supply is sufficient, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price of plasticizer DOP is fluctuating and stabilizing.

Downstream demand is expected to rebound

Policy favorable, macroeconomic sentiment rising, October coming to an end, downstream demand falling, downstream operating load relatively stable, market recovery, expected increase in demand for plasticizers market.

Raw material costs fluctuate and stabilize

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and stabilized compared to the price of isooctanol on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the price of isooctanol at 8706.67 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 5.67%. This week, the supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, with expected sales of orders from isooctanol manufacturers. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% from the price of 7287.50 yuan/ton on October 18th; Compared to October 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride at 7200 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a decrease of 0.35%. This week, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment has been stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market are limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, the price of industrial naphthalene is temporarily stable, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride still exists. The overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and stabilizing, while the price of phthalic anhydride is fluctuating and falling, and the cost of plasticizer DOP is weakly stabilizing; In terms of demand, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the demand for plasticizers is declining. In the future, the prices of raw materials will decline, and the cost of plasticizers will decrease; Policy support, expected recovery of plasticizer DOP market, high operating load of plasticizer manufacturers, sufficient supply of DOP, double increase in supply and demand, relatively balanced supply and demand in the plasticizer market, and expected fluctuation and consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic formic acid price rebounded weakly in mid to late October and continued to operate steadily. As of October 21, the domestic formic acid price of 85% was 2771 yuan/ton, up 3.74% from 2675 yuan/ton before the holiday and unchanged from last week.

The price of raw material methanol storage has fallen, providing insufficient support for formic acid

Recently, the price of methanol spot market has fallen from a high level, and the price of port spot market has decreased with the market. With the adjustment of macro policies and changes in market environment, the positive support for the methanol market in the early stage has gradually weakened. The overall supply of methanol in the mainland market remains at a high level. In the short term, manufacturers in the main production areas mainly rely on inventory discharge due to the increasing inventory pressure. This has further intensified the supply pressure on the methanol market, leading to downward pressure on prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid raw material support is insufficient, and there is no significant improvement in market demand. The formic acid market may experience weak fluctuations.

Analysis: This week (10.14-18), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.35%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2500-2750 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, agricultural demand procurement will slow down, industrial demand will follow suit, and supply will be sufficient. However, supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been fluctuating at a high level recently (10.1-10.12). As of October 12th, the spot rubber market in China was around 17238 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.92% from 17942 yuan/ton on October 1st, and an increase of 1.39% from the low point of 17002 yuan/ton during the cycle. High post holiday fluctuations in raw material prices; In addition, domestic Tianjian inventory continues to slowly decline; After the holiday, downstream tire factories mostly stocked up on demand to support the demand for natural rubber, and the natural rubber market fluctuated at a high level.

After the holiday, the rainfall in Thailand decreased and the cutting level increased to 70%, while the weather in Vietnam’s production areas remained poor; The weather in China is good after the holiday, but the supply of glue in Hainan region is not as good as in previous years due to the impact of previous typhoons; The prices of natural rubber raw materials both domestically and internationally remain high. As of October 10th, the price of Thai glue is 79.50 baht/kg, which is higher than the price of 76.50 baht/kg on September 30th; As of October 10th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area is around 19300 yuan/ton, which is higher than the price of 18600 yuan/ton on September 30th.

Natural rubber inventory maintains a slow destocking trend. As of October 6, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 409500 tons, which continued to decrease from 422500 tons before the holiday.

With the support of domestic policies to promote automobile consumption, downstream production of all steel tires has been running at a low level. After the holiday, downstream demand inquiries have increased, providing essential support for the natural rubber market. As of October 10th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 4.20%.

Market forecast: Currently, domestic and international raw material supply prices are high; Semi steel tire production is stable, while full steel tire production is at a low level, providing strong support for natural rubber demand but resisting high priced sources of goods; The inventory of Tianjian is showing a slow trend of destocking; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a wide range of fluctuations in the short term.

The US dollar exchange rate, China’s economic situation, global economic growth prospects, possible nickel export restrictions from Russia, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut policy have collectively affected the London metal market, particularly the performance of nickel prices. These macro factors led to significant fluctuations in nickel prices, ultimately driving the nickel price to bottom out and rebound in September. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, the price of nickel dropped to 121716 yuan/ton on September 11th, hitting a new low since May 2021, and then rebounded. As of September 30th, spot nickel was reported at 132016 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.12%.

Macroscopically, at the beginning of the month, due to mixed employment data in the United States, the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, and the slowdown in manufacturing activity in China, the world’s top metal consumer, intensified concerns about global economic growth prospects, dragging down the majority of metal market varieties in London and causing a volatile decline in nickel prices. On September 11th, the Russian President stated that Moscow should consider restricting nickel exports. If Russia implements the proposed ban, global nickel supply may shift from the current global oversupply of 100000 tons to a shortage. The news pushed nickel prices up significantly. On the morning of the 24th, the People’s Bank of China announced that it would cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage point in the near future, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market; Reduce the interest rate of existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans, guiding commercial banks to lower the interest rate of existing housing loans to near the interest rate of newly issued housing loans, with an expected average decrease of about 0.5 percentage points. On the 25th, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, marking the first time since 2020 that interest rates had been cut, and the magnitude of the cut exceeded expectations, opening the first monetary policy easing cycle in four years. At the same time, the decline of the US dollar has made metals priced in US dollars more attractive to buyers using other currencies. Stimulated by multiple heavyweight policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in China, nickel prices have risen significantly, reversing the recent unfavorable market trend.

On the supply side: The situation of oversupply in the nickel market continues, and inventory is under pressure, resulting in a doubling of growth rate. As of September 27th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 25504 tons, an increase of 2892 tons from last week; On September 27th, LME nickel inventory was 130308 tons, an increase of 11310 tons from last week.

On the demand side: The overall consumption performance is average. When prices hit bottom, there is a strong purchasing atmosphere, smooth shipments, and reduced inventory. After prices rise, user purchases slow down. The demand for alloys in military and shipping industries is still acceptable, and customers have a strong need to continue. In September, stainless steel prices fell slightly, and the market was also affected by the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. As of the end of September, the spot price of stainless steel was 13567.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% compared to September 1 (13837.50). Driven by macroeconomic factors, prices have only slightly improved, but overall, low prices are still the main driving force for transactions, with businesses generally reducing inventory before the holiday.

Market forecast: Macro bullish outlook boosted, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly experience short-term consolidation and upward movement.