In September 2024, the nylon filament market operated weakly, with prices continuing to decline. Upstream international crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, suppressing market sentiment. The supply of raw material caprolactam in the market is loose, resulting in lower prices and a downward shift in the cost center. Downstream market demand is weak, and the “golden nine” of the textile industry is not present. It is difficult to find favorable support from the demand side, and the activity of on-site trading is not good. The industry’s operating rate remains stable, with little change in on-site supply. The inventory of nylon filament market has increased, and under multiple negative factors, the price of nylon fiber market remains weak and continues to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament continued to decline in September. As of September 29, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 460 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 2.46%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 15700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 yuan/ton or 3.68% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 19300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan/ton or 2.15% from the beginning of the month.

Weak raw materials continue to decline

In September 2024, in terms of nylon filament raw material caprolactam, the international oil price fluctuated and fell in September, which had a negative impact on costs. The industry chain held a pessimistic attitude. After the caprolactam market was put into operation in Shanxi, Shandong, Hubei and other places, the supply in the market gradually relaxed, and the price dropped significantly. The settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam in September 2024 was 12986 yuan/ton (liquid superior product self pickup after six months of acceptance), a decrease of 199 yuan/ton from the settlement in August. As of September 29th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 12020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.43% from the beginning of the month.

Supply demand

In September 2024, the overall supply of nylon filament market remained stable, and most of the nylon filament market facilities were operating steadily. Currently, the daily production rate of the nylon filament market is around 8.4%. On the demand side, the traditional peak season for textile production in September did not meet expectations, and the “Golden September” did not occur. Demand did not substantially improve, coupled with weak costs. Weaving manufacturers mainly maintained stable production, and foreign trade brands gradually issued orders. However, the order volume is still mainly in a small quantity and multiple times mode, and there are still few bulk goods. Lack of market confidence.

Future forecast

Although entering the traditional peak season for textiles, downstream market demand will improve to some extent, but there is currently no obvious sign of improvement, and on-demand procurement is still the main focus; The cost side caprolactam market is mainly weak, and the cost side support for nylon filament is weak. Pessimistic sentiment is pervasive in the market, and demand is unlikely to improve significantly. Business analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly consolidate and operate weakly, and prices will continue to decline narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 27th, the average market price has been adjusted to 6287 yuan per ton, and the price of PET water bottle grade is weakly stable.

With the international oil price showing a downward trend, the prices of the two core raw materials in the polyester industry chain have synchronously declined, resulting in a significant weakening of the support for PET raw materials, which in turn has led to a downward adjustment of the market price center on that day.

At the demand level, industry sentiment tends to be cautious and pessimistic, with market participants adopting more conservative business strategies and becoming more cautious in their decisions regarding new orders. Although some sources of goods still face tight supply, holders tend to sell at low prices due to poor expectations and are unwilling to release goods easily, resulting in a weak and stable adjustment of the PET market as a whole.

Overall, analysts from Business Society believe that there may be expectations of a rebound in PET spot market prices in the short term, but the magnitude is still limited. The actual trend still depends on the trend of the raw material side and the subsequent actual supply and demand situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 16th to 20th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5925 yuan/ton to 5882 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.72% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 16.86%. The domestic ethanol market is running steadily but weakly, with downstream demand mainly for replenishment. The overall trading atmosphere is still acceptable, but the willingness to replenish is limited.

In terms of cost, domestic corn prices continue to be weak. Currently, the overall quotations of deep processing enterprises are continuously decreasing, and some enterprises have made multiple adjustments within a day, with a significant cumulative decrease. As the new grain market approaches, the market supply atmosphere is relatively relaxed, the mentality is not good, and the market price center is gradually declining.. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Sichuan Hongzhan equipment is operating stably; Fukang only has four production lines, and the main large factories have low production capacity. There have been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The ethanol supply is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continues and orders are postponed; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; The operating rate of ethyl acetate has rebounded. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

The future forecast shows a negative impact on the cost side, while there is still no clear sign of improvement in downstream demand. Business Society’s ethanol analyst predicts that the domestic ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

The domestic fluorite prices have slightly declined this week, with an average price of 3375 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.74% from the early week price of 3400 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 0.75%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and low fluorite inventory

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. However, the impact of imported fluorite from Mongolia on the northern fluorite market is significant, and the trend of the northern.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fluctuated at a low level, with mainstream prices ranging from 10300 to 10800 yuan/ton negotiated in various regions of China. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is consolidating weakly, with some units still being shut down recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and downstream demand is poor. The domestic fluorite market remains weak.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, market production demand weakens. In addition, refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions and are not actively purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and both long and short factors have jointly affected it. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

The price of dichloromethane has remained stable after a slight rebound this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 9th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2730 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.2%.

The cost of raw materials has slightly increased, and the methanol and liquid chlorine markets have experienced a narrow decline this week; The operating rate of the methane chloride unit has slightly increased, and the price of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded at the end of August. The demand side has low enthusiasm for double section replenishment, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is weak. Downstream customers basically maintain their demand for replenishment. As of September 9th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2720-2730 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Domestic methane chloride production has resumed stability.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the raw material methanol has continued to fluctuate weakly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 9th, the spot price of methanol was 2385.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.8% from the beginning of the month. The price of liquid chlorine has been lowered, and downstream enterprises have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a poor overall trading atmosphere.

In terms of demand, the popularity of restocking purchases for gold, silver, and silver is not high. Solvent is the main use of dichloromethane. Currently, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, and the trading atmosphere is weak. Downstream refrigerants are produced according to quotas and urgently needed for procurement.

Business analysts believe that the demand for replenishment has not yet risen, and the short-term price of dichloromethane is consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 6th, the domestic ethanol price fell from 5965 yuan/ton to 5945 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 12.89%. The downstream demand side continues to be sluggish, with poor buying enthusiasm and light trading, resulting in a narrow decline in the domestic ethanol market.

In terms of cost, the domestic corn market prices have been adjusted weakly, and some areas have harvested and launched new grains with water bubbles ahead of schedule. The grassroots price support sentiment is not strong, and the prices are low. Although the domestic corn market prices have fallen, the cost of ethanol production enterprises is still under pressure. The cost of ethanol lacks favorable support.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Domestic ethanol spot supply has slightly decreased. There have been no significant changes to the equipment in other factories. The ethanol supply is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the off-season of Baijiu consumption continues and orders are postponed; Methyl ethyl ester maintains stable purchasing volume for anhydrous materials; Individual units of ethyl acetate are planned to restart, and the operating rate has slightly increased. Short term ethanol demand is expected to be supported by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, the negative impact of cost is expected, while the market supply remains abundant, resulting in overall shipping pressure. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that domestic ethanol prices will remain stable with a weak trend in the short term.

This week, the price of epichlorohydrin hit a new low. With the recovery of enterprise equipment, the operating rate of some enterprises has increased, and the supply has significantly increased. However, due to the impact of low-priced sources, the price center has shifted downwards. As the end of the month approaches, there has been a slight rebound in buying activity, but market prices have not shown significant improvement, and prices have hit a new low at the end of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8615.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -4.01% compared to the beginning of this month (8975.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the price of propylene in the market has slightly increased, and the price of liquid chlorine has also slightly boosted. The supply volume has increased, but the increase in supply has limited its price rise. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6968.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.62% compared to the beginning of this month (7083.25 yuan/ton). The fluctuation of raw materials has little impact on the epoxy propane market, and the overall epoxy propane market is still in a downward trend. The main focus should still be on the market supply and demand relationship.

Downstream demand side: Downstream mainly focuses on essential procurement, with a cold trading atmosphere and insufficient order volume. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, market atmosphere is weak, and the market is declining. More attention should be paid to whether the downstream supporting equipment of Lihua Yiwei Yuan epoxy propane and the capacity expansion of Longhua polyether can be smoothly put into operation in September.

Market forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current follow-up of new orders for epoxy propane downstream is average, with a focus on essential needs for transactions. Although the supply has increased, the impact of low-priced sources has shifted the price center downward. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will fluctuate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market supply and demand as well as changes in raw materials.

Aluminum prices turn upward in August

In August, aluminum prices reversed the downward trend of the previous high correction and turned upwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 30, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 19643.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.38% from the market average price of 19186.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1).

On August 30, 2024, the spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) for China Aluminum Corporation Limited is as follows: the external quotation for the East China market is 19630 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the South China market is 19520 yuan/ton, the external quotation for the Southwest market is 19600 yuan/ton, and the external quotation for the Central Plains market is 19570 yuan/ton.

Monthly aluminum inventory changes

In August, there was a significant decrease in inventory in the electrolytic aluminum plant area, and social inventory first decreased and then increased, basically stable, with a slight accumulation of inventory overall.

As of August 29th, incomplete statistics show that the main electrolytic aluminum plant inventory in China is 53000 tons, which is 88000 tons compared to the main plant inventory on August 1st, and 35000 tons have been unloaded;

As of August 29th, the mainstream social inventory of aluminum ingots in China was 808000 tons, compared to the main factory inventory of 803000 tons on August 1st, with a cumulative inventory of 5000 tons.

Reasons for the rebound of aluminum prices in August

On the macro news front, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates is good. The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting in July suggest that there is a high possibility of a rate cut in September, with the largest decline in non farm payroll in 15 years in the year ending in March, raising market bets on a significant 50 basis point rate cut in September from 29% to nearly 39%.

2. Low inventory of raw material alumina, firm prices, and cost driven positive aluminum prices.

3. In the off-season of aluminum processing in August, the inventory data of electrolytic aluminum shows good domestic supply and demand. As of August 22, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream areas was 790000 tons, compared to the inventory of 803000 tons on August 1 at the beginning of the month, with 13000 tons sold out. At the same time, the expectation of the traditional peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” has further boosted market expectations.

Factors affecting aluminum prices in September

At the macro level, the optimistic sentiment brought about by the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September has gradually been digested, and the benefits have basically been reflected in the price level. The subsequent boosting effect has weakened.

2. Changes in medium and long-term demand and export expectations. Mainly due to the pessimistic long-term expectations in the downstream market, partly due to the seasonal off-season of household appliances, and partly due to the significant pressure on real estate completion, the negative feedback effect of aluminum consumption is strong; More importantly, in terms of exports, the additional tariffs on new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may gradually be implemented, and photovoltaic exports are also facing certain pressure.

3. In recent times, on the supply side, Yunnan electrolytic aluminum enterprises are nearing the end of resuming production, with high daily output and narrowing upward space; Overseas New Zealand direction, due to power shortages, supply has slightly decreased. On the demand side, downstream sectors have seen a rebound in operating rates, with electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories both experiencing a slight destocking.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that electrolytic aluminum will experience strong fluctuations in the short term, but the upward space is narrowing. In the short and long term, the performance will be mainly strong at first and then weak.