According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic ethanol market was weakly consolidated in July. From July 1st to 30th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers dropped from 6052 yuan/ton to 6012 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.66% during the period and a year-on-year price drop of 9.59%.

In the first half of the month, supported by cost factors, the main factories raised prices and maintained stable quotes. However, as downstream demand declined, the domestic ethanol market weakened and consolidated. In mid month, some regions saw a tentative increase, but downstream purchases were mostly made on demand, with average transaction volume. Under high costs, most companies bear the pressure of losses and are unwilling to lower prices to place orders. Considering the current weak demand, the domestic ethanol market has only maintained a slight upward trend. In the latter half of the month, the majority of regions in China experienced sluggish procurement and sales, with some manufacturers undergoing maintenance and supply decreasing. Despite the impact of weak demand, the market did not follow suit. As the end of the month approaches, due to the suspension of some factory facilities and reduced inventory pressure, ethanol prices have slightly increased. The overall downstream purchasing is flat, demand remains sluggish, and trading volume is limited.

In terms of cost, in the first half of the month, the surplus grain at the grassroots level reached its bottom, and downstream procurement was carried out in stages, with a limited amount of imported grain powder. The corn market is operating at a high level. In mid month, the domestic corn market was running weakly. As the temperature gradually rises, traders are concerned about the storage of high moisture grain sources, and their enthusiasm for shipping has increased. In order to promote shipment, they will continue to reduce prices slightly. At the end of the month, with high temperatures and frequent rainfall in the production area, traders showed high enthusiasm for shipping, resulting in weak short-term fluctuations in corn prices. The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

The cost of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.

Demand side, Baijiu consumption off-season; Short term ethanol demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Market forecast: Negative impact on cost, sluggish demand leading to market shipment obstruction. The ethanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the short-term domestic ethanol market will be mainly dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall toluene market has been declining recently (7.19-7.26). On July 26th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7510 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% during the period. During this cycle, the overall toluene market has been weak, with market prices fluctuating downwards. Supply remained tight this week, and refinery inventories have been running at a low level. On the demand side, the downstream procurement intention is low and the intention to receive goods is insufficient, which has a certain drag on market sentiment. During the week, the focus of market negotiations in various regions slightly declined, and downstream companies maintained their demand for replenishment. As of the 26th, the mainstream price range in East China is 7330-7410 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 200-210 yuan/ton compared to last week.

On the cost side: At the beginning of this cycle, the trend of crude oil has declined. On the one hand, the geopolitical situation has eased, which is bearish for the crude oil market. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has affected economic activity in the United States due to hurricanes, putting pressure on crude oil demand and causing signs of a slowdown in US crude oil exports. On the other hand, there are also signs of slowing economic growth in the Eurozone and China, especially the decline in China’s crude oil imports, which has had a negative impact on the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market has declined during the cycle. As of July 25th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.28 per barrel, an increase of $0.69 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $82.37 per barrel, an increase of $0.66 or 0.8%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotations have generally decreased this week, but there are slight differences in the degree of adjustment among different underground sources. The company is operating normally, with stable equipment production and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7500 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7600-7650 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7550 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the rigid demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On July 26th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with a current execution price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implemented this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units of Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene on July 26th, with a current execution price of 8900 yuan/ton. East China, North China, Central China, and South China all implemented this price. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units operated stably and had normal sales. The external PX price continues to decline, with CFR China closing at $993-995/ton as of July 25th, a decrease of $16/ton from last week.

On Thursday (July 25th), the Asian toluene market closed down, with the FOB Korea closing price of 844-846 US dollars/ton in August, down 7 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in August was 891-893 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: The recent trend of crude oil on the cost side is weak, and the support on the cost side is weak. The maintenance of the toluene unit in terms of supply is gradually coming to an end, and the market expects that supply will resume in the future. In terms of demand, as August approaches, the market expects inventory demand to gradually recover with the “Golden September and Silver October” and future holidays. The toluene market will also enter a period of active trading, which still provides some support for market sentiment. Overall, the toluene market is mixed with negative and positive factors, and it is expected that the market will mainly experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the impact of equipment resumption on market supply.

This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the price of isooctanol was 9480 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.67% compared to the price of 9740 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, downstream factories purchased according to demand, the plasticizer market declined, downstream enterprises had poor enthusiasm for raw material procurement, Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards, resulting in significant downward pressure on isooctanol.

This week, the price of raw material propylene first fell and then rose

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of July 19th, the price of propylene was 7220.75 yuan/ton, a decrease followed by an increase of 0.35% compared to the price of 7195.75 yuan/ton on July 12th; Compared to July 17th, the price of propylene fluctuated and increased by 7160.75 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.84%. Crude oil prices first fell and then rose, while propylene cost support still exists; The fluctuation of the equipment has led to a decrease in the production of propylene manufacturers, a tightening of supply from propylene manufacturers, and a halt in the decline and rise in propylene prices.

Downstream plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 19th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9725 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 1.89% compared to the DOP price of 9912.50 yuan/ton on July 12th last weekend. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of DOP, a plasticizer, has fluctuated and fallen this week. With the arrival of the hot and rainy season, PVC has entered a seasonal off-season in the industry, with both domestic demand off-season and export reduction coexisting. Downstream manufacturers are in the off-season, with low production levels and weak follow-up on actual transactions. The demand for plasticizers is poor, and there is significant downward pressure on plasticizers.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, propylene prices first fell and then rose, while isooctanol cost support still exists; On the supply side, isooctanol manufacturers offer discounts for sales, and new orders are generally shipped; In terms of demand, during the off-season of the market, the prices of downstream plasticizers of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, resulting in weak downstream demand. Overall, the stable supply and demand of isooctanol are poor, and cost support still exists. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 8550 yuan/ton. In July, cyclohexane prices remained stable, but the overall market lacked upward momentum. Currently, downstream demand from manufacturers is average, and the market transaction atmosphere is positive. The prices of mainstream cyclohexane factories are stable with a strong trend.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: In early July, the upstream pure benzene prices were weak, and the inventory of ports in East China increased. The inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The market supply is abundant, the pure benzene market continues to decline, and the cost side crude oil market prices are running low, with insufficient support on the cost side.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently insufficient support from the upstream cost side and insufficient demand from the downstream. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with a mainstream price range of 8500 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of styrene in Shandong was 9533.33 yuan/ton on July 1st, and 9468.33 yuan/ton on July 9th, an increase of 0.37%. The current price has increased by 28.24% compared to last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene has slightly increased this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. The main reason for the increase is that the inventory of styrene has decreased rapidly, and the unit load is low. There is an expectation of further decline in supply, and the styrene market is trading actively, resulting in an upward trend in the market.

Cost side

Recently, pure benzene has continued to decline overall. At present, the pure benzene port inventory has slightly increased. The pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu region is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. Most refineries in Shandong have lowered their offers. As of July 9th, the mainstream spot price of pure benzene in the Shandong market is 8800 yuan/ton. Compared to the beginning of the year, pure benzene is currently accumulating inventory, and the market is relatively under pressure, with limited support for styrene.

Supply side

In July, there were many inspections of styrene plants, and the inventory of styrene ports in Jiangsu Province was 35900 tons, a decrease of 13100 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 49000 tons, a decrease of 26.73%. The inventory of styrene remains low, and domestic supply remains at a relatively low level, which is beneficial for the styrene market. Under the current profit situation, the enthusiasm of production enterprises to start production is limited, and it is expected that the supply pressure of styrene will not be significant in mid to late July.

Demand side

Recently, the three major downstream markets of styrene have seen two increases and one level. The EPS market is stable, with downstream high prices resisting. Production is mainly focused on digesting the inventory of finished products in the early stage, and the market has a clear wait-and-see atmosphere. New order transactions are weak. Domestic ABS prices are rising. ABS finished product inventory is relatively high during the same period, but demand has increased, market transactions are good, and the market has slightly increased. The PS market is fluctuating and rising. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 9750-11000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 10100-11600 yuan/ton.

According to the styrene data analyst from Shengyi Society, the current styrene port inventory is low, and the production of styrene units has decreased significantly, leading to a decrease in supply expectations. However, due to the drag of the cost side pure benzene market, the increase may be limited. Shengyi Society analysts expect a slight increase in the styrene market.

In June, the price trend of domestic fluorite slightly declined. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3781.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% from the initial price of 3812.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 21.29%.

On the supply side: low mining operation rate and tight supply of fluorite

The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will continue to be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments will carry out rectification and renovation of fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. In addition, an accident at a certain mine in Jiangxi has caused some mines in the region to undergo safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite goods is still tight, and the decline in fluorite prices is limited.

Demand side: Weak demand for hydrofluoric acid, declining refrigerant production

In June, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend declined, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China was 11000-11500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak, and some devices are still in shutdown recently. There is not much change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have lower orders for hydrofluoric acid. The price of hydrofluoric acid is dragging down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market has slightly declined.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market’s production demand has weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has continued, and refrigerant companies have poor stocking conditions, making them less proactive in purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the market for fluorite has slightly declined.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has maintained a high level.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the trend of downstream hydrofluoric acid market is declining, and the demand for downstream refrigerant industry is gradually weakening. Both long and short factors are affecting the market. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that fluorite prices may slightly decline in the future.