On June 25th, the price of ethylene glycol rose

 

POLYVINYL ALCOHOL

In late June, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded. According to data from Business Society, as of June 25th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4523.33 yuan/ton, which is 0.09% lower than the average price of 4526.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on June 1st. The prices for each region are as follows:

 

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4400-4690 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4300 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

 

On June 25, 2024, the trading price of ethylene glycol basis spread at the port was between -17 and -12, and the futures market price rose. The basis spread quotation in East China strengthened during the day. At present, the basis of forward contracts remains in a near low and far high pattern. The spot price of ethylene glycol at the port ranges from 4540 to 4575 yuan/ton.

 

Reduced inventory at ports with low arrivals

 

This week, there was a significant decrease in port inventory. As of June 24th, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 708500 tons, a decrease of 41100 tons compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on June 20th, which was 749600 tons. On June 24th, the inventory outflow situation in East China was as follows: around 7800 tons of MEG were shipped from the mainstream storage area of Zhangjiagang; The two mainstream storage areas in Taicang produce around 6300 tons of MEG.

 

June spot forward contract delivery, spot strength

 

Approaching delivery, there are rumors in the spot market that there will be a delivery, and starting from last Thursday, the ethylene glycol basis spread has been climbing all the way. The expected receipt of goods, combined with the strengthening of the futures market, has led to a surge in the spot price of ethylene glycol. Some oil to ethylene glycol manufacturers in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions mainly ship under contracts. Currently, orders are scheduled until November, with an external quotation of 2409 contracts+30. The base price range for port goods in the market in July is -8 to+5 (2409 contracts), which is near low but far high.

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1、 Price trend

 

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According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of May 31st, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43350 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42066.67 yuan/ton. In May, the overall weak operation of lithium iron phosphate was the main trend, with upstream prices of iron phosphate maintaining a weak trend. The cost side lacks support, and the price of lithium carbonate is weakly declining with limited increase. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak, and the supply and demand balance in the short term is the main trend in the lithium iron phosphate market.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

In terms of cost: In May, upstream lithium carbonate was mainly weakly operated, with a focus on low negotiations and high inventory levels. The market supply pressure continued, and some manufacturers had a strong willingness to lower prices, leading to a continued downward shift in spot prices. It is expected that lithium carbonate will maintain a stable, medium, and weak trend in the short term.

 

3、 Future Market Forecast

 

In summary, from a cost perspective, upstream prices have risen and fallen, while lithium iron phosphate prices maintain their current trend. Currently, inventory is operating at a high level, and companies have a clear willingness to lower prices. Inventory reduction is the main focus, and it is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term. The price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate will remain around 43612 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate will remain around 42300 yuan/ton.

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Recently (May 23~May 31), the market price of butadiene rubber has significantly increased. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the price of butadiene rubber in the East China region was 14090 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.37% from 13500 yuan/ton on May 23. The price of raw material butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has strengthened; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased but still remains at a low level; Downstream production of all steel tires has slightly decreased, and on-demand procurement of butadiene rubber has led to a significant increase in butadiene futures, driving a bullish market atmosphere. The supply and price of butadiene have gradually increased, and merchant quotations have followed suit.

 

PVA 0588 ( PVA BP05)

Recently (May 23 to May 31), the price of butadiene has significantly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber is strongly supported. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11875 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.50% from 11150 yuan/ton on May 23.

 

Recently (May 23 to May 31), there has been a slight increase in the production of domestic butadiene rubber plants, but they are still at a low level. As of the end of May, the production of domestic butadiene rubber has been around 520%; The Qixiang Tengda Shunding rubber device was restarted to normal operation in late May; Taixiang Yubu Shunding Equipment will restart operation from May 24th; The butadiene rubber plant of Jinzhou Petrochemical was gradually restarted at the end of May.

 

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Demand side: In the near future (May 23 to May 31), downstream tire production has slightly declined, providing strong support for the rigid demand for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of late May, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises has slightly decreased to 6.60%; Downstream suppliers tend to stock up on demand for polybutadiene rubber.

 

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Business Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will rise again, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will be strong; The production of butadiene rubber has slightly increased, but it is still at a low level and the market supply is tight; At present, downstream tire companies are consolidating their production in a narrow range, providing strong support for the demand for butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market has remained strong in the near future under the support of cost and low production.

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According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the toluene market in May fell first and then rose, with an overall slight decline. On May 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7610 yuan/ton, and on May 31st, it was 7510 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, it decreased by 0.66% compared to the beginning of the month, and the low point in the cycle was 7480 yuan/ton.

 

PVA 0599 (PVA BF05)

International crude oil price range fluctuations have weak support for toluene

 

The international crude oil price range fluctuated in May, with weak support for toluene. As of May 31st, the closing price of WTI07 contract is 76.99 US dollars per barrel; The Brent 08 contract closed at $81.11 per barrel.

 

The rising price of toluene in the external market provides support for the domestic market

 

The price of toluene in Asia rose significantly in May, providing support for the domestic toluene market. As of May 30th, the CFR China toluene price in June was between 928-930 US dollars per ton, a significant increase from the beginning of the month.

 

The production of xylene has decreased, and the demand support for toluene has weakened

 

In early May, due to the restart of the early maintenance equipment, the overall production of xylene rebounded to around 7.9%; Starting from mid May, PX units such as Weilian Chemical, Fuhai Chuang, and Hengli Petrochemical began to shut down for maintenance. Domestic PX production gradually decreased to around 740% at the end of the month. In May, the price of PX in Asian foreign markets rose significantly, providing strong support for the domestic PX market. As of May 30th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1032-1034 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1057-1059 US dollars/ton CFR China.

 

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending demand and weak support for toluene

 

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of the end of May, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.

 

TDI demand is weak, and starting production maintains a low level, which weakens support for toluene

 

The TDI market in May saw a narrow consolidation with slight price fluctuations. The terminal market has a strong demand for purchasing, and downstream entry enthusiasm is not high. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the trade market has a wait-and-see attitude. The supplier’s quotation is firm, and the prices of the holders are stable with slight adjustments. The market trading is slightly stagnant.

 

Significant decrease in port inventory and relief of supply pressure

 

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The inventory of domestic toluene ports has decreased, and the overall resistance to the upward movement of toluene has decreased. As of May 30th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 45000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 3000 tons, a significant decrease from the end of April.

 

The pressure on the toluene supply surface is not high due to the combination of device restart and maintenance in the later stage

 

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in early June; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics resumed operations in late May. There are still some maintenance plans for aromatic hydrocarbon units in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

 

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, the current international crude oil market is fluctuating and consolidating, with narrow fluctuations in toluene costs; The demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected; The restart and maintenance of the toluene unit coexist in the later stage, and the pressure on the supply side is not high. It is expected that the toluene market will mainly consolidate in the later stage.

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This week, the price of acetic anhydride first fell and then rose

 

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According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5437.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.58% compared to May 25th, when the price of acetic anhydride was 5525.00 yuan/ton. This week, the price of acetic acid fell first and then rose, with limited cost support for acetic anhydride; Acetic anhydride enterprises are operating steadily, with sufficient market supply. Downstream demand follows suit, but demand support is weak. Acetic anhydride manufacturers are actively shipping, and the price of acetic anhydride follows upstream trends, falling first and then rising.

 

Weak and volatile acetic acid market

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.56% from the price of 3200 yuan/ton on May 25th. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of enterprises continued to be high, and downstream demand was weak. The quotation for acetic acid continued to decline. In the later part of the week, some acetic acid factories shut down, and the inventory of enterprises decreased. The intention of manufacturers to increase prices increased, and the price of acetic acid increased accordingly, which was mainly bearish for the acetic anhydride market.

 

Future prospects

 

According to the acetic acid analyst of Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the acetic acid market has slightly increased, and manufacturers have a clear intention of increasing prices, which is supported by the cost of acetic anhydride; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a strong shipping sentiment; Follow up downstream as needed, and the market trading atmosphere is still acceptable. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is favorable, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will consolidate and rise in the later period, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market.

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