According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on May 15th, the price of organic silicon DMC participated in 13550 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of organic silicon DMC referenced 13500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, it can be seen that during the Labor Day holiday, the overall shipment of organic silicon DMC market is average, and the market is temporarily stable. After the holiday, the inquiry atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC market was light, and the market focus slightly shifted downwards. On the 8th, the market price of organic silicon DMC fell to a low point in the early days, with a reference of 13380 yuan/ton.

Under the stimulation of low prices, the organic silicon DMC market has ushered in a wave of cautious stocking, and some factories have alleviated their supply pressure with a strong upward trend. Starting from the 9th, the price of organic silicon DMC market has started to recover, and large factories in Shandong and leading enterprises have raised the price of organic silicon DMC, with an increase of around 250-300 yuan/ton.

Subsequently, the organic silicon DMC market entered a transitional period, and the overall market began to operate steadily. As of May 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 13450-13900 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC site is mild. After some factories receive pre-sale orders, the overall supply pressure in the market is relatively low. However, the overall operating rate on the site is still relatively high. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of liquid sodium acetate hit bottom and rebounded in mid May. As of May 13th, the price of 25% liquid sodium acetate was 787 yuan/ton, which is the lowest price of the year, up 25 yuan/ton from 762 yuan/ton on May 1st.

In terms of raw materials: After the holiday, the market price of acetic acid continued to rise. As of May 13th, the price of acetic acid was 3397 yuan/ton, an increase of 192 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, which was 3205 yuan/ton. The downstream PTA and EVA demand for acetic acid, as well as the export volume of acetic acid, have increased simultaneously. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid has risen.

Before the May Day holiday, the raw material soda ash market was strong and upward, and soda ash will enter the traditional maintenance season. Domestic supply is expected to decrease, but imported soda ash still has plans to arrive at the port, and the supply gap of soda ash may be limited. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile operation.

Analysts from Shengyishe Sodium Acetate Data believe that the cost side is supported by bulls, which is driving the recovery of sodium acetate prices. It is expected that the sodium acetate market will be mainly strong in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has been operating in a narrow range. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on May 11th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 22933.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of 0.15% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the cost side:

In early May, crude oil rebounded after falling, which was beneficial for the market of pure benzene, the raw material for adipic acid. The cost side provided some support for adipic acid. At the same time, some devices will enter the maintenance period in late May, and the expected decrease in enterprise production will tighten the supply of adipic acid. The domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine has increased, and the pricing of overseas large factories has remained in the early stage. In addition, the high price of hexamethylene diamine has led to a narrow loosening of the market this week; Overall, the support of costs for the PA66 market remains strong.

In terms of supply:

This week, the operating rate of the domestic PA66 production line saw a narrow increase. The overall industry load is around 70%. The production of the enterprise is stable, and there is no obvious accumulation of inventory. The supplier’s price adjustment operation is clear, and the support is still sufficient.

In terms of demand:

Recently, textile, electrical, and modification enterprises have been following a routine in stocking and consumption, with most of their procurement operations being focused on production. The main force of on-site trading is supported by the follow-up of demand, and the buyer camp has slight resistance to high priced goods. The demand side has average support for PA66.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the spot price of PA66 has been consolidating at a high level. The raw material market still supports the cost side of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a horizontal load and stable supply. The demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is average. It is expected that the PA66 market will continue to operate steadily in the future.

This week, there was a slight upward trend in the price of acetonitrile in the market. As of May 9th, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 10100.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to the beginning of this month (10080.00 yuan/ton). Gradually stocking up in the early stage, the market atmosphere did not decrease but increased after the holiday, driving up the price of acetonitrile.

Supply side:

There is still positive support in the supply side, and the overall operating rate of by-product method enterprises is low. Manufacturers are given price adjustments, and some quotations are further increased as a result. The inventory pressure is relatively low. Currently, the inventory level of acetonitrile factories is not high, and there is no significant pressure on industry inventory, which further enhances the driving force for suppliers to increase prices. In the future, there may be an increase in supply, especially with the expectation of an increase in the operating rate of by-product law enterprises, and the duration of this round of upward trend in the market may be extended.

This week, the price of acetic acid has risen, and the market atmosphere is warm. The capacity utilization rate of the acetic acid industry is still 74.22%. Only two sets of equipment are expected to be put into operation in 2024, resulting in a decrease in new production capacity. With the decrease in domestic and foreign operating loads and limited new domestic production capacity, the total export volume of acetic acid in the first two months of this year reached 190300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.04%, indicating good export demand. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid is expected to continue to rise. As of May 9th, the benchmark price of acetic acid for Shengyishe was 3300.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.54% compared to the beginning of this month (3250.00 yuan/ton).

Demand side:

Downstream users are already primarily in demand and lack sustained demand, which to some extent affects the sustainability of market growth. In the current market environment, it is common to maintain low inventory operations to avoid potential market risks.

Overall:

It is expected that the supply and demand relationship will still affect the domestic acetonitrile market price next week or continue to rise. At the same time, the overall supply is still limited, and the overall factory load and industry inventory remain at a relatively low level, providing opportunities for market growth. It is expected that the market price of acetonitrile will reach around 10800-11100 yuan/ton next week.

Post holiday zinc prices fear high prices and fall back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 8th, the price of zinc was 23076 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.29% compared to the zinc price of 23378 yuan/ton on May 1st. After the holiday, the high price of zinc has fallen. Zinc mining and zinc enterprises have restarted, increasing the supply of zinc in the market, increasing the pressure on zinc prices to fall. After the holiday, zinc prices fear high prices and fall back.

Tara Zinc Mine in Ireland Restarts

Swedish mining giant Boliden announced on May 3rd that it will restart production at the Tara zinc mine in Ireland, which has been undergoing maintenance and upkeep since its shutdown in 2023. According to Boliden’s plan, the mine will gradually increase production in the fourth quarter and is expected to reach full capacity production by January 2025. This production increase plan will help increase the supply of zinc in the global market and may have a certain impact on market prices. The supply of zinc in the market is increasing, and the pressure on the decline of zinc prices is increasing.

Resumption of Budel Zinc Smelting Project in the Netherlands

The Budel zinc smelting project in the Netherlands has announced plans to resume production, with plans to resume production in mid. The smelter is one of Tok’s zinc smelters in Europe, with an annual production capacity of approximately 300000 tons. Zinc smelting enterprises are resuming production, and the supply side of the zinc market is expected to recover. The tight supply side pattern is easing, and the supply of zinc in the market is increasing, increasing the pressure on the decline of zinc prices.

The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that the processing fees for zinc concentrate continued to decline in 2024. The decreasing trend of zinc concentrate processing fees accelerated in April, and the processing fees for zinc concentrate significantly decreased in May. The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, the enthusiasm of zinc enterprises to start production has decreased, the supply expectation of zinc market has decreased, and there is some upward support for zinc prices.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, zinc mines and smelters in the international market have successively announced plans to resume production, leading to short-term supply growth in the zinc market; The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises has decreased, and the expected future supply of zinc in the market has decreased. In the future, with an increase in short-term supply and an expected decline in zinc prices, the growth of long-term zinc supply is limited, and zinc prices still have upward support. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently (4.23-4. 30). On April 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.91% from 7910 yuan/ton on April 23rd.

International crude oil with narrow fluctuations and weak cost support for mixed xylene

Recently (4.22-4.29), due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, weakened demand expectations, and the suppression of conflict risk premiums, international crude oil prices have fluctuated narrowly, providing weak support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of April 29th, WTI06 contract settlement is $82.63 per barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $87.20 per barrel. The high prices of mixed xylene in Asia still provide support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $986 to $987 per ton as of April 29th.

Mixed xylene port inventory slightly increases, supply side pressure continues

The mixed xylene port inventory has slightly increased, and supply pressure remains. It is understood that as of April 25th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 75000 tons, which continued to decline compared to the previous period.

Low level mixed xylene production requires weak support for xylene production

The domestic production of xylene has slightly increased from 6.9% to around 7.1%, but overall production is still at a low stage, with weak support for toluene demand. The high consolidation of PX prices in the Asian outer market provides some support for the domestic PX market. As of April 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1011-1013 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1036-1038 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has decreased, and the market for naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined. As a result, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of April 25th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has dropped to around 690%.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Future forecast: From a fundamental perspective, international crude oil will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; Downstream PX and mixed blending industries saw a slight decline in production, while the phthalic anhydride industry saw a low level of production, resulting in overall weak support for mixed xylene demand; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

In April, the market situation of ethyl acetate was weak and downward, and the price trend continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6260.00 yuan/ton, a decrease from the beginning of the month price of 6433.33 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 2.69%. The main reason for the bearish performance of cost demand.

Market analysis: Within the month, the supply and demand of ethyl acetate market continued to be weak. On the 11th, due to the rise in raw material acetic acid prices, the price of ethyl acetate was slightly increased. However, due to the overall weakness of the ethyl acetate market and limited positive support, the price of ethyl acetate continued to decline. The high utilization rate of production capacity on the supply side has put pressure on supplier shipments, and the retail prices of Shandong’s main factories have continued to decline, suppressing market confidence; In terms of demand, terminal consumption is slow, downstream purchases are followed up on demand, and the demand side continues to be bearish.

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.84% compared to the price of acetic acid on April 1st, which was 3250 yuan/ton. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side first rose and then fell, with limited cost support. In the latter half of the year, the acetic acid market continued to spread to the terminal, affecting the weak trend of downstream ethyl ester.

In the future, the price of ethyl acetate has fallen to a relatively low level, and downstream may have the intention to replenish at a low price. It is expected that the price will rise in the future. However, considering the weak supply and demand of ethyl acetate and the difficulty in improving long-term fundamentals, the ethyl acetate market will maintain a low consolidation. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of refined petroleum coke in April continued to decline. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in April was 1485.00 yuan/ton on April 30th, 1655.00 yuan/ton on April 1st, with a monthly decline of 10.27%.

Cost side: The crude oil market in April was volatile, and the instability of the current situation in the Middle East still has a certain positive impact on oil prices. This will keep oil prices at a high level, and the resistance to a significant decline in the future is still significant. In addition, the current demand side has also shown some positive expectations, and the peak driving season in North America will stimulate gasoline demand. The decline in US crude oil and finished oil inventories has also provided support for oil prices.

Supply side: In April, the shutdown, maintenance, and production reduction of coking units in refineries gradually increased, resulting in a relative decrease in supply, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The sulfur content of petroleum coke in some refineries has changed, and the price of petroleum coke fluctuates with the increase of sulfur content; The overall low level of petroleum coke storage in the refinery; There are relatively few newly arrived resources of imported petroleum coke, and in addition, the delivery speed of petroleum coke from various ports has been relatively fast recently, resulting in a decrease in the storage of petroleum coke in the port.

On the demand side, the price of metal silicon slightly decreased in April, showing a weak and stable trend overall. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 30, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 13660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.36% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 15.37% from the same period last year. In April, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of stable supply and reduced demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, and downstream production loss pressure gradually fed back to upstream. Under the bearish supply and demand side, the spot price of metal silicon weakened.

In April, the price of medium sulfur calcined coke remained basically stable, with most enterprises stabilizing their shipments. Market demand is expected to increase in the later stage, but currently, the demand for the negative electrode market is limited, and most enterprises mainly focus on executing preliminary orders.

In April, the price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose, causing aluminum factory profits to widen. With the arrival of the flood season in May, Yunnan’s resumption of production will continue to advance, and the certainty of supply increase is strong. It is expected that the upward space for aluminum prices in May will narrow. As of April 29th, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 791000 tons, and the domestic circulating electrolytic aluminum inventory was 665000 tons, which is still at the low level of nearly seven years compared to last Thursday when 16000 tons were removed from the inventory, a decrease of 62000 tons compared to the same period last year. In terms of outbound shipments, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots last week was 117800 tons, a decrease of 14000 tons compared to the previous week. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises have weak support for petroleum coke demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Market forecast: Currently, the overall supply of domestic petroleum coke market is sufficient. With the basic completion of pre holiday replenishment in the early stage, market transactions are limited. Currently, the price of locally refined petroleum coke mainly follows the adjustment of refinery sulfur content indicators. It is expected that the recent consolidation of the local refining petroleum coke market will be the main trend, with prices mostly following changes in refinery petroleum coke shipment indicators.