After a consolidation of the domestic ABS market in May, it fell, with most brands experiencing a decrease in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12150 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.61% from the price level on May 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: At the beginning of this month, the domestic ABS industry took on a low load pattern in the early stage. After a four month upward trend, the price of ABS has risen to a high level, and the profitability of aggregation enterprises has improved. In the first half of May, there were operations to increase load and expand profits, and the average operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises increased by nearly 10%, to around 65%. The production has increased synchronously, and the supply of goods on site has also increased accordingly. In the second half of the month, the industry load remained generally stable, and the supply side’s support for ABS spot goods gradually weakened.

Cost factor: In May, the trend of ABS upstream three materials generally weakened, with concentrated resumption of acrylonitrile maintenance equipment and lagging downstream consumption follow-up. There is a certain supply-demand contradiction in the market, and spot prices continue to decline. The current acrylonitrile market is bearish.

After a decline in the domestic butadiene market in May, it rebounded in the latter half of the year. In the early stage, supply was relaxed, and external prices continued to weaken. The news of low-priced transactions stimulated the domestic market, and buyer inquiries were low. In the second half of the month, there was an increase in business maintenance, supply tightened, and suppliers actively increased, resulting in a significant rebound in the market.

In May, the market price of styrene first fell and then rose, and the increase was greater than the decline. The reason for the decline in the first half of the year was due to increased supply expectations, poor spot demand, weak styrene transactions, and a slight decline in the market. In the second half of the month, the United States entered a peak season for crude oil demand, with international oil prices rising and the raw material pure benzene market rising, and cost support improving. At the same time, the inventory of styrene at the port has been continuously decreasing, and downstream enterprises have followed up with an increase, warming the market atmosphere.

In terms of demand: The main terminal demand for ABS has not improved, and the overall load of downstream factories is generally stable, with stocking operations mainly focused on buying in demand. Traders are flexible in their orders, leading to an increase in low-end market offers and a decrease in the speed of goods circulation. The market momentum is weakening, and the demand side is not providing enough support for the market.

Future Market Forecast

In May, domestic ABS prices showed a weak trend. From a fundamental perspective, the upstream three materials of ABS have been fluctuating, with mixed ups and downs. Most of the month, there has been poor support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant has significantly increased, and supply pressure is gradually increasing. On the demand side, the demand for goods is weak, and the support for spot goods is not good. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will be mainly weak and consolidating in the short term.

Price trend

This month, the domestic PA6 market has risen after consolidation, and spot prices have mostly increased. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of May 29th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 15075 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+3.08% compared to May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam has continued to rise this month. The price of raw material pure benzene has risen at a high level, coupled with an increase in downstream operating rates, demand is improving. At the same time, some companies underwent maintenance on their caprolactam units within the month, leading to a tightening of market supply. Caprolactam is highly beneficial and provides stronger support for the cost side of PA6.

Supply side: In May, PA6 production enterprises saw a narrow increase in load, with the operating rate gradually rising to around 88% and production slightly increasing. The change in inventory position of enterprises is limited. Some manufacturers have low inventory levels. The overall pressure on the supplier is not significant, and the boost to PA6 spot prices is still acceptable.

In terms of demand: In the downstream sector, the main downstream industries have seen high levels of production within the month. The operating rate of spinning remains at 85%, while the weaving load has risen narrowly to around 70%. In the early stage, strong demand was purchased downstream, and some brands were delivered in the middle of the month, resulting in a decrease in on-site spot goods. The demand side of PA6 provides sufficient support for spot goods.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market rose in May. The price of caprolactam continues to strengthen, increasing support for the cost side of PA6. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable with an increase, and the demand for stocking by terminal enterprises is relatively strong. Overall, the current market demand is strong, and raw materials are strengthening. It is expected that the PA6 market will tend to be strong and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of May 28th, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7466.67 yuan/ton. In May, the price of cyclohexane showed a weak downward trend, and the overall market upward momentum was insufficient. Currently, downstream demand from manufacturers is average, and the market transaction atmosphere is positive. Mainstream cyclohexane factory prices have remained stable and strong.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of imports and exports, the total import volume of cyclohexane in April was 0.231 tons, an increase of 477.5% compared to 0.04 tons in March. The import amount in April was 4688 US dollars, with an average import price of 20294.37 US dollars/ton. The export volume in April was 3558.939 tons, a decrease of 13.14% compared to 4097.1 tons in March. The export amount in April was 3396853 US dollars, with an average export price of 954.46 US dollars/ton. In April 2024, China exported a large amount of cyclohexane to Japan, with an export quantity of 2890 tons, accounting for 81% of the total export volume; South Korea ranks second with an export volume of approximately 324 tons, accounting for 9% of the total export volume, while other countries have lower export volumes.

In terms of cost: In May, the upstream pure benzene price remained stable with a strong trend. According to customs statistics, in April 2024, foreign trade imported 264290.61 tons of benzene, a decrease of 24.43% compared to the previous month and an increase of 22.69% compared to the same period last year. The export volume showed a downward trend and maintained the current trend in the short term.

In terms of demand: Downstream lactam has slightly increased, downstream operating rates have increased, demand for raw materials has improved, the market trend is upward, and terminal demand has increased. It is expected to maintain the current trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that currently, the upstream is operating in a narrow and strong range, while downstream demand is still acceptable. It is expected that the cyclohexane market will maintain a strong trend in the short term, with the mainstream price range being 7500 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 27th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 8250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.30% compared to last Tuesday’s price.

Recently, the price of polyethylene glycol in the market has been fluctuating and consolidating within a narrow range. Recently, the raw material ethylene oxide has been operating steadily, with relatively stable cost support and average demand side performance. Inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere remains unchanged. Holders mainly ship according to the market, while the focus of polyethylene glycol negotiations fluctuates narrowly.

Upstream ethylene oxide: On May 27th, the mainstream market of ethylene oxide in various regions of China maintained stable ex factory prices, while the ethylene oxide market in East China executed a price of 6900 yuan/ton externally. Recently, there has been sufficient supply and average downstream demand, resulting in a stagnant market and limited support for the polyethylene glycol market.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, this week (5.17-5.24), the price of ethylene glycol has stabilized from the previous decline and turned back to recovery. According to data from Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4513.33 yuan/ton, which is 1.73% higher than the average price of 4436.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 17th. This provides sufficient support for the polyethylene glycol market.

The polyethylene glycol analyst from Shengyishe believes that the current cost support is stable, and downstream orders are mainly in demand. The market atmosphere is average, and it is expected that the price of polyethylene glycol may fluctuate narrowly in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has fallen

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5525.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the price of acetic anhydride on May 20th, which was 5587.50 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of acetic acid has significantly decreased, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened; Acetic anhydride enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, average downstream enthusiasm, weak demand support, and acetic anhydride manufacturers are actively shipping, resulting in a weak downward trend in acetic anhydride prices.

The acetic acid market continues to decline

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.03% compared to the 3300 yuan/ton price on May 20th. The maintenance of the on-site acetic acid plant has been restored, the utilization rate of production capacity has been improved, and the inventory of manufacturers has increased. In order to promote the reduction of inventory for acetic acid, downstream parties are resistant to high priced sources of goods, and the enthusiasm for entering the market to purchase goods is not high. The market trading atmosphere is weak, and the mentality of manufacturers is empty. The focus of acetic acid trading continues to shift downwards, and the acetic acid market is weak and downward, which has a negative impact on acetic anhydride.

Future prospects

According to the acetic acid analyst of Business Society, in terms of raw materials, the acetic acid price trend is weak, and the cost support for acetic anhydride is insufficient; In terms of supply, the acetic anhydride market has sufficient supply of goods, and manufacturers have a clear shipping sentiment; Downstream follow up as needed, with limited market trading. Looking at the future market, the cost of acetic anhydride has declined, and the support from suppliers is limited. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will operate weakly in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic spandex market has remained stable since mid May, with a price of 29000 yuan/ton for 40D spandex as of May 22. The cost side support is still acceptable, and the demand for terminal textiles is insufficient as the off-season approaches. Spandex factories are actively shipping, but some manufacturers face inventory pressure.

At present, the actual negotiated reference price for domestically produced 1800 molecular weight PTMEG loose water in the spandex field is stable at 15000-15500 yuan/ton, but it has slightly decreased by 500 yuan/ton compared to last month. The pure MDI market spot reference is between 18300 and 18600 yuan/ton, and the overall supply from manufacturers has decreased. Traders are reluctant to sell and there is a willingness to raise prices.

Under the weakening demand during the off-season, downstream weaving factories are easing inventory pressure by reducing production passively and proactively. The seasonal decline in terminal demand is expected, and the current downstream weaving machine operating rate is stable at around 71%. With the weakening of the textile market and the accumulation of factory inventory, the expectation for the future market is poor. In the short term, it may mainly consume its own stock, and the purchasing mentality is cautious.

According to analysts from Business Society, the current spandex market is lukewarm, and downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude, lacking confidence in the market and maintaining a demand for replenishment. However, there is some positive support on the cost side. In the domestic pure MDI market, there are more device shutdowns and maintenance, and the overall supply of manufacturers will decrease. It is expected that the domestic pure MDI market may stop falling and rebound in the short term. Therefore, the short-term market situation for spandex remains mainly stagnant.

Domestic cobalt prices have skyrocketed

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on May 21st was 223100 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 3.48% compared to the cobalt price of 215600 yuan/ton on May 20th. The news of the landing of storage and collection has stimulated a short-term increase in demand, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices.

Storing and receiving message stimuli

According to market insiders, the State Reserve intends to purchase approximately 15000 tons of cobalt to increase its inventory for new energy batteries and aerospace alloys. China purchased 2000 tons of cobalt as a strategic commodity reserve in 2020, and the scale of this collection far exceeds that of 2020. The demand for cobalt in the market has increased significantly in the short term, and the supply of cobalt in the market is insufficient in the short term, increasing the pressure on cobalt prices to rise.

Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts from Business Society, the demand for cobalt in the market has increased due to the stimulation of the harvest and storage news, and the supply of cobalt in the market is in short supply. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 17th, the price of stearic acid was 8875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan or 0.84% compared to last week, and an increase of 100 yuan or 1.14% compared to May 1st, with an overall narrow range consolidation. As of May 10th, the mainstream market price of stearic acid (domestically produced, 1840) is around 9200-8500 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for stearic acid (imported brand, 1801) is around 9900-9000 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: At the beginning of the week, the average price of palm oil in the market was 7770 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average price of palm oil in the market was 7884 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47%. The palm oil market is mainly on the rise. Due to the increasing production cycle of Malay palm oil, palm oil experienced a pullback after rising. Long and short intertwined, the palm oil market fluctuated and rose overall, with gains exceeding 1%.

Supply and demand side: PVC spot market prices have risen this week. On Monday, the average domestic PVC price was 5604 yuan/ton, and on Saturday it was 5714 yuan/ton. The price increased by 1.96% during the week. PVC futures prices have risen, and downstream spot prices have risen one after another, increasing the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, the overall domestic market for stearic acid is undergoing a narrow consolidation. On the cost side, palm oil has fluctuated, but overall the market is rising, with positive support; The operating rate of stearic acid is around 6.3 layers, and production is stable. Stearic acid inventory is lush. At present, stearic acid is operating at a high level with almost zero profit. The downstream demand side has improved. It is expected that the short-term market for stearic acid will be mainly volatile.

Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the price of zinc was 23636 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.81% from the fluctuation of zinc price of 23216 yuan/ton on May 10th; The zinc price fluctuated and increased by 1.10% compared to May 1st at 23378 yuan/ton. The London LME futures market has low zinc ingot inventories, leading to a decrease in zinc market inventories and a tightening of zinc supply. Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen this week.

Low inventory of zinc ingots in the London LME futures market

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), zinc inventories in London continued to decline slightly last week, with the latest inventory level reaching 251400 tons, a three-month low. This week, zinc ingot inventories in London continued to decline slightly. On May 16th, the London LME market had a zinc ingot inventory of 259675 tons, an increase of 8800 tons. Overall, London’s zinc ingot inventory is low, and the supply of zinc in the market remains tight, with significant support from the rise in zinc prices.

WBMS: Global zinc supply shortage of 14700 tons in March 2024

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in March 2024, global zinc sheet production was 1.2434 million tons, consumption was 1.258 million tons, and there was a shortage of 14700 tons in supply. From January to March 2024, the global production of zinc sheets was 3.6539 million tons, with a consumption of 3.5464 million tons and an oversupply of 107400 tons. In March 2024, the global production of zinc mines was 1.239 million tons. From January to March 2024, the global production of zinc mines was 3.5747 million tons. The global zinc market experienced a shortage of supply in March, but there was an oversupply of zinc from January to March, with limited support for the rise in zinc prices.

Domestic zinc ingot inventory has slightly decreased

From the statistical chart of zinc ingot inventory in China in 2024, it can be seen that there was a significant increase in zinc ingot inventory in 2024, but there was a slight decrease in zinc ingot inventory in May. The supply of zinc in the domestic zinc market was tight in May, and the support for the increase in zinc prices remains.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the international market’s zinc ingot inventory is low, while domestic zinc market inventory is decreasing. The supply of zinc in the market is tight, and the rise in zinc prices is strongly supported. However, the London futures market’s zinc ingot inventory is rising, and the supply of zinc in the market is increasing. There is limited room for zinc prices to rise, and it is expected that zinc prices will consolidate at a high level in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of May 16th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 5850 yuan/ton. This week, the focus of negotiations in the white carbon black market remained stable, with prices mainly operating steadily. Currently, the overall market supply and demand balance is dominant, and the mainstream price remains around 6000 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus, and the price fluctuation range is limited. Currently, there is insufficient upstream cost support, and downstream demand is poor. The main focus is on rigid demand procurement.

Chemical index: On May 15th, the chemical index was 871 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.65% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the current downstream demand is average, and inventory is sufficient to maintain a high level. It is expected that the mainstream price will be around 6000 yuan/ton in the short term.