According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, zinc prices have stabilized at a low level within a year, with an average zinc price of 21038.27 yuan/ton and a median value of 21009 yuan/ton. On April 11, 2024, the zinc price was 22720 yuan/ton, an increase of 3422 yuan/ton from the minimum value of 19298 yuan/ton within the year. In April, zinc prices continued to rise, currently reaching the highest level within a year. The detection positions are high within a year, medium low within two years, and medium low within three years.

On April 11th, zinc prices increased year-on-year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, zinc prices have fluctuated and fallen since 2022, and in 2023 and 2024, zinc prices have decreased year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 11, 2024, the zinc price was 22720 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.97% year-on-year from the zinc price of 22018 yuan/ton on April 11, 2023. Recently, zinc prices have been rising continuously, with the first year-on-year increase in zinc prices on April 11, 2024.

Technical forecast for zinc market this week: It is highly likely to operate in a positive direction

The zinc price is likely to continue to improve this week. The prediction model of the Business Society’s commodity analysis system shows that since March 24, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started a downward trend. After April 7, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, both moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 7, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is only 50.63%.

Market Overview

The recent continuous rise in zinc prices has changed the weak market trend of zinc. On April 11th, zinc prices rose year-on-year for the first time in 23 years and reached a historic high in zinc prices within a year. However, zinc prices have remained at a mid to low level in the past three years, and there is still room for improvement in zinc prices. Moreover, the 7-day moving average of zinc prices crosses the 30 day moving average. From a technical perspective, the probability of zinc price increase is relatively high, but zinc prices are at risk of exceeding the price increase within one year, and the space for zinc price increase is limited.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 7th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3470 yuan/ton, and on March 28th, the average price of alumina in the market was 3473 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1% from last week.

In terms of cost

The upstream bauxite of alumina maintains an upward trend. Guinea is gradually stabilizing, and the supply of goods is steadily increasing. There is no significant relaxation of mining control in the Jin Yu region of China, and domestic mining sources still maintain a tight situation. Due to the arrival of the rainy season in Australia, there may be some interference at the mining end.

In terms of supply and demand

The capacity utilization rate has slightly decreased this week, mainly due to weather and planned maintenance. The scale of reduction in alumina production in the southern region has increased, which is in line with the tight supply of bauxite in the southern region; In contrast, the northern region steadily increased production with the addition of imported minerals. There is a certain buffer for the supply changes caused by the reduction in production in the south.

On the demand side, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan region in March is expected to be around 140000 tons/year, with slower than expected growth.

Future Market Forecast

The scale of resuming production of alumina in the northern region continues to expand, and spot prices are gradually becoming more relaxed. The Southwest region is experiencing a period of tight supply and regional tension. Maintain short-term fluctuations in alumina prices.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of April 3, 2024, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5470 yuan/ton, an increase of 146.67 yuan/ton or 2.76% compared to March 29, 2024 (reference price of diethylene glycol was 5323.33 yuan/ton).

Market: One week before Qingming Festival, the domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated widely. There were no ships arriving at the port during the week, and inventory remained low. At the same time, large-scale equipment maintenance was carried out in China. In early April, one set of equipment from Satellite Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical each entered a shutdown maintenance state, and supply reduction supported market sentiment. The East China market continued to rise, with significant emotional fluctuations. However, the market lacks clear and sustained effective news guidance, and the stability of the market is weak due to rapid rise and fall. Downstream factories often follow in the middle of changes, with few purchases and high points difficult to sustain. The support level is also difficult to break, and the game nature is evident. The price fell at the end of the week, with the main focus on digesting the increase, and the market fluctuated widely. As of April 3rd, the closing price in East China was between 5470-5490 yuan/ton, while the closing price in South China was between 5620-5630 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: The main downstream unsaturated resin production is stable, but due to the strong trend of the leading raw material styrene, the UPR factory’s procurement of raw materials will continue to be low under high cost pressure. During the Qingming holiday, it is expected that 6300 tons will arrive on board, and there will be no pressure on the increase in port inventory. Top domestic refining companies are implementing maintenance plans, leading to a reduction in domestic supply, and the impact of the news may be more significant. Analysts from Shengyishe Diethylene Glycol believe that the market has a relatively strong grasp of supply and demand in the near future compared to March, and price expectations are expected to rise.

1、 Price trend

The PTFE market continued to operate steadily this week. According to statistics from Business Society, as of April 3rd, the market price of PTFE suspended particles has remained around 36500-50000 yuan/ton.

2、 Influencing factors:

Raw material side: The market price of R22 on the raw material side has risen, putting pressure on high costs. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 3rd, the benchmark price of Shengyishe R22 was 24833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.76% compared to the beginning of this month (24166.67 yuan/ton).

Downstream end: Downstream demand is weak, with rigid procurement being the main focus. A new procurement node is about to arrive, and enterprises still have a wait-and-see mentality.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s PTFE analyst believes that the high prices of raw materials support weak downstream demand, and the PTFE market has been operating steadily in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 2nd, the domestic price of water bottle grade PET is 7340 yuan/ton, and fiber grade PET is 6992.5 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall PET raw material market is showing a strong trend, with factory quotations mainly increasing. The focus of market negotiations is on a high level, with an overall increase of 20-50 yuan/ton in price. Downstream demand for replenishment is running, and the mentality of chasing prices is cautious. At present, there is still support on the cost side, and in the short term, the PET market is mainly in a narrow range.

2、 Market analysis

The upward trend in PET raw material prices has driven PET to passively follow suit, and the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up. PET factories have raised their prices one after another, narrowing the supply of goods on the market and slightly lacking supply. Currently, the overall market negotiation focus is on a high level, with a positive procurement atmosphere and limited downstream acceptance. The attitude is cautious, and the overall polyester market demand is good. There is an expectation for maintenance on the supply side, and the downstream delivery speed is accelerating. There is a tense situation in the supply side spot, and holders have a reluctance to sell. The mentality of price support is obvious, and it is expected that the short-term upward space is limited.

In terms of cost, the trend of upstream ethylene glycol fluctuates slightly and consolidates strongly, while crude oil has some support. Currently, the domestic supply has narrowed, and downstream demand for essential goods is being purchased. Normal inventory is being reduced, and market buying has rebounded. Prices continue to follow suit. Currently, the overall market is relatively strong and consolidating. Since March, the demand for upstream PTA maintenance has continued to increase, and prices have maintained an upward trend. The price in East China is stable and slightly strong, with a negotiated price of around 6000 yuan/ton. Currently, purchasing essential goods is stable, and a cautious and wait-and-see attitude is strong. There is still support for crude oil, and it is expected that PTA cost prices will be supported in the short term.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for PET is good, and the production and sales situation of enterprises is good. The market is currently in the traditional peak season of gold, silver, and four, with low temperature autumn clothing selling well in spring and good demand for summer clothing. There is no pressure on enterprise inventory, and the overall market negotiation focus is on high prices. In the short term, the main trend is to increase prices, and the overall market expectation is good.

3、 Future Market Forecast:

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the overall polyester market is currently in the traditional peak season of gold, silver, and four, with increasing downstream demand and strong support from upstream costs. It is expected that the PET market will have a narrow upward trend in the short term, with mainstream prices for PET water bottle grade around 7300 yuan/ton and fiber grade around 7000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of refined petroleum coke in March fluctuated widely, with an overall slight decline. The mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in March was 1675.00 yuan/ton on March 31, 1682.50 yuan/ton on March 1, with a monthly decline of 0.45%.

Cost side: The crude oil market rose first and then fell in March, with a relatively stable performance in the first ten days. As of March 13th, international crude oil futures rose significantly, with a daily increase of nearly 3%. The main reason is that the US EIA inventory data is positive, coupled with Ukraine’s attack on Russian refineries, geopolitical tensions have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. In the latter half of the year, the crude oil market experienced a slight decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar combined with an increase in US crude oil inventories.

Supply side: In March, the coking equipment of the refinery was gradually repaired, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke for local refining, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The sulfur content of petroleum coke in some refineries has changed, and the price of petroleum coke fluctuates with the increase of sulfur content; Imported petroleum coke continues to arrive at the port, leading to an increase in the storage of petroleum coke in the port.

On the demand side, the price of metal silicon slightly decreased in March, and the overall situation is in a downward cycle. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 31, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market is 14070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 16.70% from the same period last year. In March, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, resulting in a bearish supply and demand situation leading to a price decline. At present, the support of metallic silicon for petroleum coke is still acceptable.

In March, the overall price of medium sulfur calcined coke increased, and some negative electrode factories began to purchase calcined coke one after another. The shipment of calcined coke improved, and currently, calcined coke enterprises are operating steadily, with relatively sufficient market supply.

In March, the production of electrolytic aluminum was relatively stable. Although there is an expectation of increased production in Yunnan, downstream consumption is gradually entering the peak season, and orders continue to recover. At present, social inventory is at a new low in the same period in recent years, and the trend of accumulated inventory is tending to end. As of March 28th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market was 910000 tons, which is a cumulative inventory of 95000 tons compared to 815000 tons of electrolytic aluminum in the domestic mainstream market on February 29th; Compared to March 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 913000 tons, with a destocking of 3000 tons. Downstream aluminum carbon enterprises have weak support for petroleum coke demand, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

Market forecast: Currently, the coking equipment in refineries is undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in the supply of petroleum coke for local refining, which is beneficial to the petroleum coke market; The speed of port petroleum coke dredging has accelerated, but imported petroleum coke will continue to arrive at the port, and the overall storage of petroleum coke in the port will increase. Overall, it is expected that the prices of refined petroleum coke in the near future will mainly consolidate.

In March, the price of metallic silicon slightly decreased and was overall in a downward cycle. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 31, 2024, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metallic silicon market was 14070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.2% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 16.70% from the same period last year. In March, the fundamentals of silicon metal were in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the downward trend in silicon prices, the production enthusiasm of silicon factories weakened, and the supply side continued to contract. The operating rates of factories in various regions remained low; Downstream also reduced procurement operations due to the decline in silicon prices, resulting in a bearish supply and demand situation leading to a price decline.

Supply side

According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, as of March 21st, the number of industrial silicon furnaces has decreased, mainly from the southwest region. Due to the heavy cost pressure faced by enterprises in the southwest region, their enthusiasm for starting production has weakened. There are 318 silicon metal furnaces in operation in China, with an overall start-up rate of 42.4%, a decrease of 7 furnaces compared to last week.

In terms of inventory, as of March 22, the overall industrial silicon inventory increased this week, with a social inventory of 365000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse accounted for 107000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week, and the social delivery warehouse accounted for 258000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which remained unchanged compared to last week. Factory inventory: The trading situation in the spot market during the week was average, with some orders from silicon factories being delivered one after another, while most silicon factory inventory showed a slight increase.

Demand side

In March, domestic polycrystalline silicon saw a slight decline. In March, polycrystalline silicon enterprises maintained normal production, but due to the decline in upstream industrial silicon prices, polycrystalline silicon also had to follow suit. At present, the consumption of industrial silicon by polycrystalline silicon continues to increase, and the ramp up of some new production capacity will bring incremental growth to industrial silicon consumption. However, polycrystalline silicon enterprises have not yet purchased a large amount of raw materials, and the demand for industrial silicon procurement needs to be released.

In March, the domestic organic silicon DMC market showed an overall trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of March, the atmosphere of the organic silicon market was positive, with many companies closing off and not reporting, and some manufacturers continuously raising their prices. Some organic silicon enterprises have plans to increase their load in the future, which may increase their demand for industrial silicon. However, the short-term procurement demand of organic silicon enterprises has not been clearly reflected. In mid to late March, due to the decline in industrial silicon prices, organic silicon also declined. We will continue to monitor the downstream delivery of organic silicon in the future.

In March, aluminum alloy prices fluctuated and stabilized. During this period, aluminum alloy enterprises started production steadily, and there was no increase in demand for industrial silicon temporarily

Future Market Forecast

On the supply side, there was not much change in supply in March, and silicon factories basically maintained their current production pace. However, as silicon prices continued to decline, silicon factory production actively weakened, and there was an expectation of a reduction in supply in April; In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are currently cautious in their procurement operations due to the continuous decline in industrial silicon prices, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. There is an expectation of growth in downstream demand for industrial silicon, and with the normal operation of the market, the demand for concentrated replenishment from downstream is expected to drive the market to recover. Overall, the supply and demand side of the metal silicon market in April may shift towards a stable situation of supply and demand reduction, with the fundamentals favorable for silicon prices. If there is a concentrated release of downstream procurement demand, market sentiment will be boosted. It is expected that silicon prices in April may stabilize first and then rise, with the possibility of a rebound after a decline.