According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic Shandong propane market has been fluctuating this week. On March 4th, the average market price of propane in Shandong was 5275 yuan/ton, and on March 8th, the average price was 5275 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, and it decreased by 9.32% compared to the same period last year.

As of March 8th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions of China are as follows:

Region/ March 8th

East China region/ 5050-5150 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5100-5150 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5050-5300 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 4850-5000 yuan/ton

This week (3.4-3.8), the Shandong propane market rose first and then fell, with prices remaining unchanged from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, due to the rise in prices due to reasons, coupled with controllable on-site inventory, propane prices rose accordingly. After the rise, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market weakened, coupled with the warming weather and weakened demand for combustion, leading to a downward pressure on propane prices.

Saudi Aramco announced its CP in March, with propane at $630 per ton; Butane costs 640 US dollars per ton, while the contract price for propane and butane remains unchanged month on month. The landed cost in RMB is around 5160 yuan per ton for propane and 5279 yuan per ton for butane.

Overall, there is an expectation of a decrease in combustion and chemical demand in the future, and the upstream price support mentality will weaken. It is expected that the propane market will experience a narrow decline in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly decreased this week. As of the 6th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7587.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% from the price of 7687.5 yuan/ton on February 28th, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.47%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Stable price of ortho benzene with acceptable cost support

Recently, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has remained stable. As of the 6th, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, which is consistent with the price of 8100 yuan/ton on the 28th. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site facilities is stable. In the short term, the trend of crude oil prices is declining, and the price of mixed xylene is stable. The temporary stability of ortho benzene prices provides certain cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price decline of the phthalic anhydride market is limited.

Demand side: DOP market’s on-demand procurement market is declining

This week, the downstream DOP market price trend has declined, with a price of 11630 yuan/ton as of the 6th, a 1.18% decrease from the price of 11800 yuan/ton on the 28th. Domestic DOP enterprises are operating normally, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average. The mainstream DOP price is 11600-11700 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend has declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is not good. The domestic phthalic anhydride market price trend has declined.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has slightly declined, while the price of ortho xylene has remained stable. The downstream DOP market has declined, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers have reported serious losses. It is expected that the market price of ortho xylene will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the future.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOP prices in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of DOP was 11780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from the price of 11810 yuan/ton on February 16th; Compared to February 1st, the price of 11780 yuan/ton has stabilized; On March 5th, the price of DOP was 11720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% compared to February 16th and 0.51% compared to February 1st. The prices of raw materials such as isooctanol and phthalic anhydride are weakly consolidating, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP is insufficient; After the holiday, plasticizer enterprises resumed production, and the supply of plasticizer DOP increased; Downstream demand recovery is slow, and the price of plasticizer DOP is weak and consolidating.

Weak consolidation of isooctanol prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12437.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71% compared to the quotation of 12350 yuan/ton on February 16th; Compared to February 1st, the price of 12375 yuan/ton has increased by 0.51%; On March 5th, the price of isooctanol was 12337.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from February 29th and 0.30% from February 1st. During the Spring Festival, the production of isooctanol was at a low level, but after the holiday, it slowly recovered. The supply of isooctanol increased, but the demand for isooctanol did not recover well. In February, the price of isooctanol weakened and stabilized, while after the holiday, the raw material propylene fluctuated and rose, increasing cost support. In March, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized.

Downstream PVC prices fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 5th, the PVC quotation was 5629 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% compared to the PVC quotation of 5596 yuan/ton on February 29th; Compared to February 17th, the price of PVC increased by 1.13% to 5566 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st, the price of PVC increased by 0.99% to 5574 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, PVC demand was weak, PVC prices fluctuated and fell, downstream rigid demand procurement, downstream manufacturers began to work after the holiday, PVC prices fluctuated and rose after the holiday, and demand for plasticizers slowly rebounded.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the price of raw material isooctanol is weak and consolidating, and the cost support for plasticizer DOP is insufficient; After the holiday, the PVC market rebounded slowly, and the demand for plasticizers rebounded slowly, with poor support from the rise of plasticizers. In the future, the cost support for plasticizers is insufficient, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. It is expected that DOP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell in February

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the price of aluminum fluoride was 10150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on February 1st, which was 10350 yuan/ton; On March 4th, the price of aluminum fluoride was 10100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49% compared to February 29th and 2.42% compared to February 1st. After the holiday, aluminum fluoride enterprises resumed work, aluminum fluoride supply resumed, raw material hydrofluoric acid prices fluctuated and fell, aluminum fluoride costs decreased, downstream electrolytic aluminum resumed work poorly, downstream demand for aluminum fluoride was weak, and aluminum fluoride prices fluctuated and fell in February.

The price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 29th, the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid was 10016.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% compared to the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid on February 1st, which was 10083.33 yuan/ton; On March 4th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9966.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% compared to February 29th and 1.16% compared to February 1st. In February, the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased. During the Spring Festival, some manufacturers started operating normally, coupled with insufficient downstream demand and high inventory of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers. After the holiday, about 50% of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers started operating, but there were still plant shutdowns. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was sufficient, and hydrofluoric acid orders were poor, resulting in a decrease in hydrofluoric acid prices. Downstream, the overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is still good, but the production in the refrigerant industry is sluggish, and the procurement of hydrofluoric acid has not improved, resulting in a decline in the hydrofluoric acid market.

Poor resumption of downstream work

After the end of the Spring Festival, downstream aluminum enterprises have started construction one after another, but some enterprises have resumed work but have not yet resumed production at full capacity, and some enterprises have not yet resumed work; The basic enterprises that have resumed work and production are alloy ingot enterprises, a few aluminum plate and strip enterprises, and most aluminum rod enterprises have not yet resumed work. Domestic nationwide snowfall, limited logistics and transportation, and limited aluminum transactions. Downstream resumption of work is poor, and demand for aluminum fluoride is weak.

Market Overview and Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Aluminum Fluoride Industry, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell in February, resulting in a decrease in the cost of aluminum fluoride. Downstream electrolytic aluminum production was poor, and demand for aluminum fluoride remained weak. In the future, it is expected that hydrofluoric acid will recover, and in terms of supply and demand, the production of aluminum fluoride will increase. The supply of aluminum fluoride will increase, and the demand will be weak. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will be weak and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic TDI price stabilized first and then increased in February. At the beginning of the month, the average TDI market price was 17000 yuan/ton. On February 29th, the TDI price was 17500 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton within the month, with an overall increase of 2.94%.

The TDI market showed a strong upward trend in February. Before the holiday, multiple sets of TDI devices in the factory were reduced in load, and spot filling was slow. The TDI market was mainly bullish, while the downstream pre holiday stocking atmosphere was average. The market trading atmosphere was weak, and traders were conflicted. TDI quotations remained stable; After the holiday, news of TDI price increases, overseas device failures, and maintenance plans for TDI devices in large factories in northern China were released. Subsequently, TDI prices in Shanghai were closed and orders were temporarily not accepted until the end of the month when BASF and Wanhua Chemical were listed for a significant increase in March. Market positive news was stacked layer by layer, and the trading market followed the guidance of the news. TDI prices continued to rise.

The upstream toluene market showed a strong upward trend in February. On February 29th, the price was at 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 330 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month’s price of 6880 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.80%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; However, the continued increase in port inventories has brought resistance to the upward trend of toluene.

TDI data analyst from Business Society analyzed that the current domestic TDI spot filling is still slow, and the supplier market is mainly strong. Considering the maintenance of the Wanhua plant in Fujian in March, the market supply of goods may tighten, and prices may increase. However, the downstream trading of terminals is weak, and market demand is lower than expected. Downstream procurement of TDI is limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and operate in March. Specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

High level fluctuations in ethylene glycol prices in February

The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated at a high level in February. According to data from Business Society, as of February 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% from the beginning of the month (February 1st) at 4656.67 yuan/ton.

On a monthly basis, the price of ethylene glycol ends the upward trend caused by the combination of overseas device news factors and continuous inventory depletion in December 2023.

Overview of February Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals

During the Spring Festival, multiple sets of oil production systems were restarted, with Yankuang resuming and Shaanxi Coal inspecting one line. After the holiday, the supply of ethylene glycol continued to rise, and the operation of the equipment rebounded. The upward trend of ethylene glycol prices in February was interrupted. From the inventory data, the seasonal accumulation effect of ethylene glycol is not significant. As of February 29th, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China was 766900 tons, which is only an increase of 16000 tons compared to the 782900 tons on January 29th. The downward space for ethylene glycol prices is limited, and the long short game intensifies.

Factors affecting the price of ethylene glycol in March

Domestic supply side: A total of 2.1 million tons of coal chemical plant maintenance plan.

Overseas imports: Imports were not high from February to March, and with the restart of overseas facilities, there is pressure for imports to rebound after April. The overseas import shipment plan for March may gradually increase, and it is expected that imports will gradually increase. However, in terms of the delivery cycle, it is mostly reflected in the middle and late stages

Downstream demand may increase overall as the textile industry fully resumes production. However, based on the centralized stocking of downstream manufacturers before the year, downstream users may mainly rely on rigid stocking in the first half of March. In the second half of the month, demand will observe the situation of new orders. Recently, the average number of terminal weaving orders is 9.52 days, a decrease of 0.22 days from last week.

Estimated price of ethylene glycol in March

In March, the overall supply of domestic ethylene glycol was tight and balanced, and there may be import replenishment in the later period. In the short term, the downward space of ethylene glycol prices is limited, with mainly horizontal fluctuations. From the trend, the price of ethylene glycol in March may be strong in the front and weak in the back.